ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY AND HUMAN SECURITY: THE ROLE OF CLIMATE CHANGE

1. ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY AND HUMAN SECURITY: THE ROLE OF CLIMATE CHANGE Nay Htun, PhD, FIC.* Professor of Environmental Sustainability, Stony Brook Southampton, State University of New York Extramural Lecture, AIT 27 May 2008. *Fellow and Visiting Professor Imperial College London; Visiting Professor and Sr. Advisor Lund University, Sweden; (Former UN Asst. Sec-General UNEP, UNDP)

3. ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY***THE CRITICAL BUILDING BLOCKS*** • ATMOSPHERE : composition, temperature, physical state • HYDROSPHERE: composition, precipitation, quantity constant, accessibility, rivers, lakes, oceans, coastal zones, hydro-cycle • GEOSPHERE-BIOSPHERE, LITHOSPHERE: weathering of geosphere to form soils, provides terrestrial plants with a firm substrate and vital nutrients and minerals needed for plant growth. • LINKGAGES AND INTERACTIONS BETWEEN SPHERES WHICH NURTURE LIFE SUPPORT SYSTEMS.

4. 2007 IPCC REPORT

5. 2007 IPCC REPORT

6. 2007 IPCC REPORT

7. ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY UNDER INCREASING PRESSURES • ANTHROPOGENIC ACTIVITIES DISCHARGING AND EMITTING INCREASING QUANTITIES OF WASTES, POLLUTANTS EG. GHGs, OZONE LAYER DEPLETING SUBSTANCES, PERSISTENT ORGANIC, (POPs), HEAVY METALS • “NATURAL DISASTERS” exacerbated by anthropogenic activities. Hydro-meteorological, geological and biological disasters increased from 71(1900-1909) to 2711 (1990-1999) 396 in 2006* • INCREASING ENVIRONMENTAL REFUGEES, MORE PRESSURE ON ENVIRONMENT, ECONOMIC AND HUMAN SYSTEMS • CONSEQUENCES FOR HUMAN HEALTH AND WELL BEING * UN International Decade for Disaster Reduction (IDNDR)

8. EMERGING CONCERNSWITH ENVIRONMENT, ECOSYSTEM AND CLIMATE CHANGES • PERMAFROST AND GREENLAND MELTING • GLACIERS MELTING AND LAKES BURSTING • ATMOSPHERIC BROWN CLOUD HOVERING OVER CONTINENTS • GLOBAL WARMING • SEA LEVEL RISING • HUMIDITY INCREASING • MORE FAVOURABLE FOR INSECT, BACTERIA, VIRUS, MOLD, FUNGUS • BALLAST WATER DISCHARGE • ALIEN INVASIVE SPECIES INCREASING

9. SOME LINKED & CONVERGING IMPLICATIONS • FOOD SECURITY • WATER STRESS • WATER QUALITY • INFECTIOUS DISEASES • ALLERGY • RESPIRATORY ILLNESS • NEW DISEASES • ZOONOSES • DISASTERS

10. DISEASES & FOOD SECURITY SOME EXAMPLES: • COLONY COLLAPSE DISORDER honey bees affecting US$ 14 billion per year of US agriculture, attributed to pesticides, mites, fungus, virus and environmental changes. • PACIFIC SALMON heavy losses and extinction in Western Canada and US, caused by sea lice breeding on farmed salmon. • FROG POPULATIONS severely affected , extinct, due to increase of chytrid disease caused by fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis

11. DESTRUCTIONS AND DISASTERS • INFRASTRUCTURES • HUMAN SETTLEMENTS • ECOSYSTEMS * Atmosphere, land, forests, rivers, lakes, coastal zones, biodiversity • ECONOMIC SYSTEMS • SOCIAL AND CULTURAL PATRIMONY

13. INFECTIOUS DISEASES • GROUP OF EIGHT SUMMIT, ST. PETERSBURG ’06 “A VIGOROUS RESPONSE TO THE THREAT OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES, THE LEADING CAUSE OF DEATHS WORLD WIDE, IS ESSENTIAL TO GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AND TO THE WELL-BEING OF THE WORLD’S POPULATION. MAJOR DISEASES SUCH AS HIV / AIDS, TUBERCLOSIS, MALARIA AND MEASELS CONTINUE TO EXACT A HEAVY TOLL ON ECONOMIES AND SOCIETIES AROUND THE WORLD, PARTICULARLY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, IMPEDING ACHIEVEMENTS OF THE MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS” “– CLEAN WATER, SANITATION, EMERGENCE OF HIGHLY PATHOGENIC AVIAN INFLUENZA WITH THE ACCOMPANYING POSSIBILITY OF HUMAN PANDEMIC, DEMANDS OUR IMMEDIATE ATTENTION”

14. WHO 2006 REPORTS • “24% of global disease burdens and 23% of all deaths can be attributed to environmental factors. Of the 102 major diseases --- environmental risk factors contributed to disease burdens in 85 categories” • “Children 0 – 14 yrs. of age, the proportion of deaths attributed to the environment was as high as 36%

15. EUROPEAN ENVIRONMENT AGENCY • EUROPE’S ENVIRONMENT --- THE FOURTH ASSESSMENT” OCT 2007 • “Despite some success with air pollution, current levels– mainly nitrogen oxide, fine particles and ground level ozone – are estimated to shorten average life expectancy in Western and Central European countries by almost one year and threaten the health development of children. In Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia, the situation is assumed to be similarly bleak” (53 Countries, total population 870 million)

16. IPCC FOURTH ASSESSMENT REPORT 2007 • More endemic morbidity and mortality due to increase in vector borne diseases , primarily from floods and droughts. • Increase cholera incidence with increasing water temperatures • Increased risks of infectious, respiratory and skin diseases • Migration and disasters related health effects

17. MALARIA • Yearly one million deaths and 500 million become severely ill • Warming effects and extreme weather events would precipitate large outbreaks • Increase range of mosquitoes which spread malaria

18. WEST NILE • Affects humans, horses and over 130 species of birds • Warm weather and droughts play role in amplifying

19. DENGUE • Current outbreak in Asia Pacific attributed to climate change and global warming

20. ASTHMA • In US prevalence has quadrupled since 1980 • New drivers include increased levels of CO2, which increases plant pollens, soil fungi, fine particles, micro-organisms

21. INCREASING AWARENESS & CONCERNS WITH CONVERGENCE OF ENVIRONMENTALSECURITY AND HUMAN SECURITY SOME RECENT EXAMPLES: • April 2007 New York Times Editorial “Warming and Global Security” • April 2007 CNA Corporation, a US national security think tank released report by 11 retired Admirals and Generals who argued that climate change is a “threat multiplier” • January 2007 UN Security Council first ever debate on climate change. UK’s former Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett said “What makes war start? Fights over water, changing patterns of rainfall” and warned that global warming not limited to adverse environmental effects, and the global population would be wise to consider “consequences people have not been thinking about”

22. RESPONSE OPTIONS ? TRANSFORMATIONAL CHANGES IMPERATIVE NEW PARADIGM: • Normative means • Economic Instruments • Technologies • Education, training, information • Institutions • Governance TOWARDS

23. PARADIGM CHANGE • CONSUMPTION PATTERNS, e.g. *Energy, water, carbon & material footprint reduction, low carbon economy. • PRODUCTION SYSTEMSe.g. *Zero emissions * Biomimetics * Nano materials and applications

24. PARADIGM CHANGE • ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS:Subsidies, taxes, loans, financing mechanisms, cap and trade, CDM, etc • NORMATIVE MEANS • INSTITUTIONAL SYSTEMS • Governance • Administration • Education

25. PARADIGM CHANGE---Human Behavior--- • THINK & ACT “OUTSIDE-BOX” • CARING, SHARING, RESPECT, HARMONY, PEACE: • Nature • Neighbors • Ourselves

26. GREENING REVOLUTION A FUTURE THAT IS • CLEAN • SAFE • SECURE • SUSTAINED ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY HUMAN SECURITY • FREEDOM FROM WANT • FREEDOM FROM FEAR • FREEDOM TO CHOOSE