phil goodwin emeritus professor of transport policy ucl and uwe
Download
Skip this Video
Download Presentation
Phil Goodwin Emeritus Professor of Transport Policy UCL and UWE

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 37

Phil Goodwin Emeritus Professor of Transport Policy UCL and UWE - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 190 Views
  • Uploaded on

Transport Geography/Transport Scotland Knowledge Exchange Day Victoria Quay, Edinburgh, 6.7.2012 Peak Car The current state of play in an unresolved evidence-based technical argument with strong, complex, policy implications. Phil Goodwin Emeritus Professor of Transport Policy UCL and UWE.

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about ' Phil Goodwin Emeritus Professor of Transport Policy UCL and UWE' - newman


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
phil goodwin emeritus professor of transport policy ucl and uwe

Transport Geography/Transport Scotland Knowledge Exchange DayVictoria Quay, Edinburgh, 6.7.2012Peak CarThe current state of play in an unresolved evidence-based technical argument with strong, complex, policy implications

Phil Goodwin

Emeritus Professor of Transport Policy

UCL and UWE

slide2
Train use grew rapidly until 1918 (then declined). Bus use grew rapidly until 1950 (then declined). Car use grew rapidly until ....
in the 1970s something like recent trends were expected 1973 dft trl car traffic forecast to 2010
In the 1970s, something like recent trends were expected1973DfT/TRL Car traffic forecast to 2010
the trouble is all current plans and forecasts are for growth
The trouble is, all current plans and forecasts are for growth
  • People will drive more (at slower speeds) (+50%)
  • travel by public transport more (+100%)
  • travel by plane more (+1000%?)
  • walk and cycle more ( )
  • and conduct an increasing proportion of their economic and leisure activity over the internet.
it seems to be similar in other advanced countries private car use 1990 2009 for six similar in 24
It seems to be similar in other advanced countriesPrivate Car Use 1990-2009 for six, similar in 24
an unresolved argument now
An unresolved argument now
  • Blip: temporary pause due to economic conditions. Growth will restart driven by fuel price, economic growth, population. (DfT)
  • Saturation: benefit from further increases in mileage outweighed by cost. Now reached saturation level of car use. (Schipper, Metz)
  • Peak car as a turning point: car use passed its historic peak and can enter a period of long decline. (Goodwin?)

(sub-themes – strength of policy influences, location of development for population increases...)

All are ‘evidence-based’ technical arguments

all evidence based so how to tell who is right
All ‘evidence-based’?So how to tell who is right?

‘Evidence’ has tended to be ‘supportive data’. But research hypotheses must discriminate between the explanations. Suggested research programme in an appendix, interim results meanwhile...

Look at disaggregate data where ‘temporary economic pressure’ view would lead to changes in one direction, and ‘cultural/technological shifts and policy impacts’ view would lead to opposite

Eg demographic and income breakdown, location and timing of biggest changes...

slide11

DfT: test saying get total traffic about right in last 6 years with population, economy, fuel price alone, therefore no evidence of shift in underlying relationships or demand drivers

most others have looked at disaggregation recurrent theme age and gender
Most others have looked at disaggregation - recurrent theme – age and gender

Work by Barbara Noble, KironChatterjee & Geoff Dudley, Gordon Stokes, Kit Mitchell, David Metz, Scott Le Vine and others in UK, parallel work in USA, France, Germany, Netherlands....

Some of Gordon Stokes results....

access to a car by age men 1988 95 1995 01 2002 08
Access to a car by age – Men 1988-951995-012002-08
  • Fast take up from age 17
  • Decline after age 50
access to a car by age men 1988 95 1995 01 2002 081
Access to a car by age – Men 1988-951995-012002-08
  • Slightly slower rise
  • ‘peak’ remains to late 50s
access to a car by age men 1988 95 1995 01 2002 082
Access to a car by age – Men 1988-95 1995-01 2002-08
  • Markedly slower rise
  • ‘peak’ to mid 60s
  • Bigger % with car at 90 than at 18
access to a car by age women 1988 95 1995 01 2002 08
Access to a car by age – Women 1988-951995-01 2002-08
  • Much lower than for men
  • Tail off from about 45
access to a car by age women 1988 95 1995 01 2002 081
Access to a car by age – Women 1988-951995-012002-08
  • Similar profile bit to higher peak level
access to a car by age women 1988 95 1995 01 2002 082
Access to a car by age – Women 1988-95 1995-01 2002-08
  • Peak close to that for males
  • Lengthening of peak level
experience of towns cities
EXPERIENCE OF TOWNS & CITIES

Rich, economically successful cities with high incomes and growing population – they are the ones showing greatest reduction in car use

(Hass-Klau: London, Munich, Freiburg, Paris, Strasbourg)

And also reductions in medium size towns especially ‘sustainable travel towns’ 2004-8 (Sloman et al)

And much lower traffic levels in high density new urban developments.

So not only because of economic pressure – but why? (...better public transport, traffic restraint, parking, charging, pedestrianisation, cycling, ‘smarter choices’, low-car redevelopment in brown-field sites.....?)

stokes biggest falls in car use by highest income men
Stokes: biggest falls in car use by highest income men
  • Higher income men are driving less
  • ... And lower incomes, driving more
non transport trends
Non Transport Trends
  • Rise of mobile computing
  • Cultural and attitudinal changes
  • Health, environment as motivations
  • Demographic changes – aging population, more single person households, later birth age, young and also ‘empty nesters’ going back to city, richer urban ‘tourists’ taking over villages...
  • Changes in images of contemporary life
mobile communications technology also changes the value of time spent travelling
Mobile communications technology also changes the value of time spent travelling
  • Music on the move makes time pass quickly, takes away the stress, and hence reduces the disutility of travel time and the importance of speed
  • Work on the move increases the productivity of time, and hence reduces the disutility of travel time and the importance of speed
slide32
The question for public policy: what to do if there are contested, defensible, evidence-based, possible futures
  • Traffic growth will soon start up again...
  • or remain stable at about the present levels...
  • or reversing historic trend, downturn continues....

My view: it’s more than ‘temporary economic pressure’, but evidence is still disputed and in spite of very active current research, there is unlikely to be a consensus in the next couple of years. Need to take fundamental change in the trends seriously.

Therefore narrow ‘high growth-low growth’ sensitivity tests are not good enough; appraisal scenarios needed meanwhile.

appendix
Appendix

Testing the Hypotheses

(suggestions to Independent Transport Commission in response to their Call for Evidence on Road to Rail)

Phil Goodwin

June 2012

[email protected]

ad