1 / 13

Model Thinking

Model Thinking. Scott E Page. Two “Proofs”. Polya. U = {1 Blue, 1 Red} Select and return Add a new ball that is the same color as the ball selected. Polya in Action. Result 2: Any history of B blue and R red balls is equally likely. P(RBBB) = P(BBBR) = . P(RBRB ) =

nevina
Download Presentation

Model Thinking

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Model Thinking Scott E Page

  2. Two “Proofs”

  3. Polya U = {1 Blue, 1 Red} Select and return Add a new ball that is the same color as the ball selected

  4. Polya in Action

  5. Result 2: Any history of B blue and R red balls is equally likely

  6. P(RBBB) = P(BBBR) =

  7. P(RBRB) = P(BBRR) =

  8. Result 1: Any probability of red balls is an equilibrium and equally likely.

  9. P(BBBB) = P(BBBR) =

  10. P(50B) = P(49B 1R) = P(47B 3R) =

  11. Result 1: Any probability of red balls is an equilibrium and equally likely.

  12. Result 2: Any history of B blue and R red balls is equally likely

  13. Model Thinking Scott E Page

More Related