A decision support system for diagnosing and nowcasting oceanic convection for oceanic aviation use
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A decision support system for diagnosing and nowcasting oceanic convection for oceanic aviation use

A Decision Support System for Diagnosing and Nowcasting Oceanic Convection for Oceanic Aviation Use

Cathy Kessinger, HuaqingCai, WiebkeDeierling, Nancy Rehak, Daniel Megenhardt, Matthias Steiner

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

Richard Bankert, Jeffrey Hawkins

Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA

Michael Donovan and Earle Williams

MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, MA

Annual Interagency Weather Research Review and Coordination Meeting

Boulder, CO 30 November – 2 December 2010

Sponsored by

NASA ROSES


Nasa roses grants for oceanic convection
NASA ROSES Grants for Oceanic Convection Nowcasting Oceanic Convection for Oceanic Aviation Use

  • “Oceanic Convection Diagnosis and Nowcasting”

  • “Global Atmospheric Turbulence Decision Support System for Aviation”

  • “Characteristics of Oceanic Convective Storms for Inclusion in Aviation Decision Support Systems”

  • “Short-term Storm Forecasting over the Gulf of Mexico by Blending Satellite-based Extrapolation Forecasts with Numerical Weather Prediction Results”


Motivation aviation safety air france flight 447
Motivation – Aviation Safety Nowcasting Oceanic Convection for Oceanic Aviation UseAir France Flight 447

Airbus A330 flying from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil to Paris, France on 1 June 2009

216 passengers/12 crew died

Flew through a large, deep storm that likely contained severe turbulence

Storm features, including overshooting tops, are readily diagnosed from GOES and Meteosat

Flight Data Recorders have not been found; fourth attempt to start next year

(approx.) Last ACARS message, 0212 UTC

Cloud Top Height (CTOP)

(approx.) Last verbal contact, 0133 UTC

+

(approx.) Last ACARS message, 0212 UTC

Convective Diagnosis Oceanic (CDO)

(approx.) Last verbal contact, 0133 UTC

+


Uplink message simulation valid 0130 utc 1 june 2009
Uplink Message - Simulation Nowcasting Oceanic Convection for Oceanic Aviation Use(valid 0130 UTC 1 June 2009)

Aircraft-specific, uplink product that could have been sent to Air France Flight 447 using today’s methodology

~1 hr look-ahead

It is unknown whether this would have made a difference; the cause of the accident remains undetermined

FAA Weather Technology in the Cockpit (WTIC) examining inflight display concepts

Cockpit simulation

Demonstration to follow?

/EXP CLOUD TOP FI AF447/AN NXXXAF 01 Jun 09

-- '/' Cloud tops 30,000 to 40,000 ft//////CCC/////

'C' Cloud tops above 40,000 ft///////////CC/////

*4.0N,30.0W/////////

*////////C//////////

//*//CC///CCC/////////

///*CCCC/C/CC//////////

////*CCCCCCC//C/////////

///CC*CCCCC///CC////////

///CCC*CCCCC/////////////

//CCCCC*CCCC//////////////

//CCCCCCC*CCC//////////////

/CCCCCCCCC*CCC///// /

//CCCCCCCCCC*CC///// // ///

//CCCCCCCCCCC*C///////// //////

/////CCCCCCCCCC*C// // // //////

//////CCCCCCCC//*/ // / //////

CC//////CCCCCCC//* /////////

CCC////////////// * /////////

/C//////////// *1.3N,31.4W ////

/////// */

*// /

/*/// //

/*/// /

/*//

/*//

*

// *

/// * //

// * ////

* /////

* //////

* /////

/// * ///

Pos Rpt / // * /

0133 // X 1.4S,32.8W //

Valid for // /

0130-0200z //

Pilot feedback at url: http://[site deleted]

Route

C=>40kft

/=30-39kft

Way Point

Air France position at 0133 UTC

Text-based view for ACARS printer


Oceanic convection diagnosis nowcasting system

CTop Nowcasting Oceanic Convection for Oceanic Aviation Use

CClass

GCD

Oceanic Convection Diagnosis & Nowcasting System

Convective Nowcasting Oceanic (CNO) makes 1-hr and 2-hr nowcasts of storm location using an object tracker

CNO

Polygons

CNO-G

Gridded

Nowcast

CNO-G makes gridded 1-8 hrnowcasts that more closely resemble storm structures

Convective Diagnosis Oceanic (CDO) identifies convective cells

CTop

CClass

GCD

CDO

Interest

CNO-G produces hourly forecasts to 8 hr with 30 min regional updates and 3 hrly global updates

(Regional = greater Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean)

CDO

Binary

Product

Gulf of Mexico domain


Convection diagnosis oceanic cdo product

CTop Nowcasting Oceanic Convection for Oceanic Aviation Use

CClass

GCD

Convection Diagnosis Oceanic (CDO) Product

Manual TRMM Validation of CDO

1817 cells analyzed

12-22 Aug 2007

Hurricane Dean

  • Satellite-based detection of deep convection for remote regions

    • Data fusion of algorithms creates interest field

      • Cloud top height

      • Cloud classification (regional only)

      • Global convective diagnosis

    • Threshold applied for binary product

    • TRMM provides validation (Donovan et al., 2009)

  • Implemented over regional and global domains

CTop

CClass

GCD

CDO

Interest

CDO

Binary

Product

Gulf of Mexico domain


Enhancements to cdo
Enhancements to CDO Nowcasting Oceanic Convection for Oceanic Aviation Use

Day

Terminator

Night

  • Partition by time of day

    • Differing performance by one CDO input algorithm for day/terminator/night regions

    • Using sun zenith angle, CDO calculated for each region separately

    • Three regions merged

  • Compute inferred lightning, L, from TRMM Microwave Imager TB 37 & 85 GHz

    • TB(37GHz) = 330 – 45log(L)

    • TB(85GHz) = 330 – 70log(L) where L>20 grps/min (Blyth et al. 2001)

    • Input into CDO

  • Validation is next step

Merged CDO Interest

CDO – No Ltg

CDO – Ltg


Convection nowcasting oceanic cno product
Convection Nowcasting Oceanic (CNO) Product Nowcasting Oceanic Convection for Oceanic Aviation Use

CNO

Titan

Nowcast

CNO-G

Gridded

Nowcast

  • Using CDO, nowcast location of deep convection.

  • Two extrapolation methods tested (Cai et al. 2010)

    • TITAN (object tracking to 8hr, growth/decay)

    • Gridded Nowcast (gridded nowcasts w/ stepwise Lagrangian scheme to 8hr, no explicit growth/decay)

  • Gridded Nowcast is best overall method

    • Implemented in regional and global domains

CNO-Gridded validation of 1-8 hr nowcasts

Storms from Sep 1-30, 2009 used, within Gulf of Mexico domain

= Hurricane Dean validation


Sinking of sailing vessel concordia
Sinking of Sailing Vessel Concordia Nowcasting Oceanic Convection for Oceanic Aviation Use

  • 17 Feb 2010, Concordia encountered a microburst outflow, capsized at 1722 UTC, sank ~20 min later

    • ~500km SSE of Rio de Janeiro

    • 48 Class Afloat students and 16 crew - No fatalities

CDO

Validation

CNO-G 1hr

1609 GenTime

1709 ValidTime

  • CNO-G 1 hr and 6 hr forecasts predict storms near ship location

    • Good performance during storm’s mature stage

  • Convection initiation and explicit growth/decay methodologies needed

The Canadian Press/Andrew Vaughan

CDO

Validation

CNO-G 6hr

1109 GenTime

1709 ValidTime


Global convection cdo and cno g
Global Convection: CDO and CNO-G Nowcasting Oceanic Convection for Oceanic Aviation Use

  • Global Atmospheric Turbulence DSS will use global convection as indicator for convectively-induced turbulence (CIT)

  • Global data set from 2007-2008, CDO (3hr update) & CNO-G (1-8hr) shown

  • GOES-W and GOES-E for real time system

20080207


Storm characterization
Storm Characterization Nowcasting Oceanic Convection for Oceanic Aviation Use

Vol. of Reflectivity

>35 dBZ

  • Examining relationships between lightning occurrence, storm lifecycle and turbulence production

  • Geo-Lightning Mapper application

    • Relationships could be applied within CNO-G to better predict storm intensity

  • Data sets:

    • NSSL NEXRAD mosaic

    • National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN)

    • NEXRAD Turbulence Detection Algorithm (NTDA) eddy dissipation rate

    • At and above -10°C level, as appropriate

  • Suggests correlation during storm evolution – examination of additional cases in progress

NLDN 10min CG Strikes

Vol. of ε1/3>0.15

Moderate

Light

Maximum ε1/3


Blending satellite based extrapolation forecasts with numerical weather prediction results
Blending Satellite-based Extrapolation Forecasts with Numerical Weather Prediction Results

Domain of the NOAA GSD Rapid Refresh (RR) model is shown with the CoSPA domain (red box) and the Gulf of Mexico blending domain i(orange box).

  • Blending of observational nowcasts with Global Forecast System (GFS) model forecasts

    • Gulf of Mexico domain

  • Will produce 1-12 hr convective forecasts that blend:

    • GOES-POES blended precipitation rate with GFS precipitation rate

    • GOES cloud top height with GFS-derived cloud top height

  • No results yet

CoSPA Domain

Blending Domain


Thank you
Thank you! Numerical Weather Prediction Results

Web site: http://www.rap.ucar.edu/projects/ocn

Cathy Kessinger

National Center for Atmospheric Research Research Applications Laboratory 3450 Mitchell Lane, Boulder CO 80301Email: [email protected]

Voice: (303)497-8481

This research is supported by NASA, primarily under Grants No. NNX09AM77G, NNA07CN14A and NNX08AL89G. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.


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