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Carbon emission metrics for climate stabilization and the implications to metrics for non-CO2 GHGs. Michio Kawamiya Research Institute for Global Change Japan Agency for Marine-earth Science and Technology. Introduction: limitation of single basket approach.

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carbon emission metrics for climate stabilization and the implications to metrics for non co2 ghgs

Carbon emission metrics for climate stabilization and the implications to metricsfor non-CO2 GHGs

MichioKawamiya

Research Institute for Global Change

Japan Agency for Marine-earth Science and Technology

introduction limitation of single basket approach
Introduction: limitation of single basket approach

Forcings for these two lines have the same value of GWP.

“Methane+640GtC” and “1280GtC, No Methane” have the same forcing in terms of GWP.

-> “Single basket approach” does not work for discussing stabilization levels. (Eby et al., 2009; Solomon et al., 2011)

GTP is superior when discussing stabilization

different roles of short lived and long lived agents
Different roles of short-lived and long-lived agents
  • Short-lived: “trim” the peak
  • Long-lived: determine the stabilization level

“Two-basket approach” is proposed ( Solomon et al., 2011)

-> GTP for short-lived agents

Cumulative emission for long-lived agents

then concentration metrics is converted to socio economic scenarios
… then concentration metrics is converted to socio-economic scenarios.

CO2 emission paths to achieve CO2 concentration stabilization

IPCC AR5 WG3 (2007)

slide6
Cumulative carbon emission as a metric for climate stabilization level and transient climate response

Matthews et al. (2009)

notifications
Notifications

CCR = T/CE = (T/CA)(CA/CE) = αA

CCR: Climate-carbon response (matthews et al., 2009)

α(=T/CA): Temperature rise per unit airborne carbon

A(=CA/CE): Airborne fraction

Cf. Climate sensitivity: λ=T/F

F: Radiative forcing

CCR may be regarded as “earth system sensitivity”, with the forcing being anthropogenic carbon emission rather than radiative forcing.

ccr may be independent of scenario
CCR may be independent of scenario

1%/year increase

Instanteneous x2 & x4

miroc esm a gcm based earth system model
MIROC-ESM: a GCM-basedEarth System Model

MIROC-ESM

Atmosphere

MIROC-AGCM

SPRINTARS (CHASER)

AGCM

CCSR/NIES/FRCGC

T42(~2.8ºx2.8º)

L80 (TOA:80km)

OGCM

COCO (CCSR/FRCGC)

Curvilinear grid system

(0.5-1.0)º x 1.4º

Ocean

Land

COCO

MATSIRO

NPZD

SEIB-DGVM

slide11

MIROC-ESM結果

Temperature Rise averaged over 2090’s relative to 1980-1999 average

climate carbon response in miroc esm
Climate Carbon Response in MIROC-ESM

(1) With all anthropogenic forcings

(2) non-CO2 GHG corrected CCR

RCP2.6

R2.6

RCP4.5

R4.5

RCP8.5

R6.0

RCP6.0

R8.5

another possible cause for scenario dependence of ccr
Another possible cause for scenario dependence of CCR

Efficiency of ocean heat uptake

Changes in ocean heat uptake:

DQ = DSW + DLW

+DSH + DLH

= kDT

Scenario A

Scenario B

Atmosphere

Atmosphere

Ocean heat uptake

Scenario A

Scenario B

Ocean

Ocean

Global temperature

change

slide14

(3)Ocean-heat-uptake (OHU) corrected CCR

CCR is moderately scenario dependent in our case, but can be corrected in terms of OHU.

slide15

Airborne CO2 is again not a good metrics…

(1) With all anthropogenic forcings

(2) non-CO2 GHG corrected

(3) Ocean heat uptake corrected

implications for establishing metrics for short lived and long lived ghgs
Implications for establishing metrics for short-lived and long-lived GHGs
  • It is important to recognize the difference between short-lived and long-lived GHGs with the same GWP, in particular for discussing climate stabilization.
  • For stabilization issues, cumulative emission (CE) of long-lived GHGs may be more desirable than concentration.
  • There may be a moderate scenario dependence of CE, especially for fast scenarios due to that of ocean heat uptake (OHU).
  • Constraining OHU efficiency may improve the validity of CE as a metrics.
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