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Presentation by Antonio Divino Moura former IRI Director General and current Director of INMET (Brazil). The IRI Mission.

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Presentation by

Antonio Divino Moura

former IRI Director General and current Director of INMET (Brazil)


The iri mission
The IRI Mission

IRI’s mission is to enhance society's capability to understand, anticipate and manage the impacts of seasonal climate fluctuations, in order to improve human welfare and the environment, especially in developing countries.

L i n k i n g S c i e n c e t o S o c i e t y


IRI Underpinning Activities

  • climate prediction

  • climate and environmental monitoring

  • impacts

  • decision support/tools

  • institutions/policy

  • capacity building/outreach/education


IRI DYNAMICAL CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM

HISTORICAL DATA

Extended simulations

Observations

GLOBAL

ATMOSPHERIC

MODELS

2°- 3° lat-lon

18 -19 vertical layers

ECHAM3.6(MPI)

ECHAM4.5(MPI)

NCEP (MRF9)

CCM3.2(NCAR)

NSIPP(NASA)

COLA2.x

PERSISTED

GLOBAL

SST

Persisted

SST

Ensembles

3 Mo. lead

POST

PROCESSING

-Statistics

-Multimodel

Ensembling

-graphics

FORECAST SST

TROP. PACIFIC

(NCEP dynamical)

TROP. ATL, INDIAN

(statistical)

EXTRATROPICAL

(damped persistence)

Forecast

SST

Ensembles

3/6 Mo. lead

REGIONAL

MODELS

AGCM INITIAL CONDITIONS

UPDATED ENSEMBLES (10+)

WITH OBSERVED SST


FORECASTS in the context of potential IMPACTS

Green (brown) shows areas of persistent OBSERVED above average (below) rainfall and for which the FORECAST shows the upper (lower) tercile to be most likely in the coming season.


Capacity Building

Training in the Met/Climate Community

Training others involved in the End-to-End process

of society adapting to new information – including related

academic communities, media, decision-makers

Courses, training products, collaborations

L i n k i n g S c i e n c e t o S o c i e t y




An Integrated Approach for Managing the Impacts of Climate Variability In Ceará, Brazil

PARTNERS

Brazil

USA

Objective - to support the continued development of Ceará’s societyand economy by reducing its vulnerability to recurrent droughts.

L i n k i n g S c i e n c e t o S o c i e t y



Jan-Dec Water Macro-Allocation Plan --- Developed July-Oct

Ensemble Forecast

COGERH

Water Agency

Demand & Priority Scenario

FUNCEME/IRI

Assess Feasible Allocation

Reservoirs

Simulation &

Optimization

Communicate

Water Committee

Feedback to revise offers

When negotiations conclude

Water Users

Irrigation, Permanent

Annual Allocation

User j gets Wj m3 water

pj% reliability for price R$

With specified monthly pattern

and priority for failure

  • Propose Contracts:

  • Desired Reliability

  • Desired Price

Water Users

Industry, Canning

Revise

Revise

Revise



Results
Results

  • Forecasts influence optimal land allocation.


Cear economic structure
Ceará Economic Structure

Evolution of the Sectorial GDP (PIB); Base: 1985 = 100 (Source: IPLANCE)

El Niño Index


Dengue early warning system mosquito aedes aegypti
Dengue Early Warning System MosquitoAedes aegypti

  • main vector of dengue and also yellow fever

  • peridomiciliar, diurnal bite

  • adult female feeds on human blood

  • live in recipients:

    water in used tires, bottles, wholes in trees, ...


Modeled Distribution of Potencial of MosquitoAedes aegypti


Forecast valid for

Dec2001-Feb2002

density of

aedis aegypti

Made in Sept 2001

based on

Climate forecasts


Health and climate programme west africa purpose
Health and Climate Programme, West AfricaPurpose

  • To create the knowledge and capacity, and therefore the opportunity, for health organizations, and their partners, to predict, prevent and manage adverse climate-influenced health outcomes*

    *E.g. morbidity, mortality, nutritional status, birth weight, etc.


The spatial distribution of meningococcal meningitis epidemics in west africa
The spatial distribution of Meningococcal meningitis epidemics in West Africa

Epidemic meningitis

Affected districts

(n = 1232 / 3281)

Reported to district

Reported to province

WHO - MDSC

LSTM

MoH

Molesworth, A.M. Thomson, M.C. Connor, S.J. Cresswell, M.C. Morse, AP. Shears, P. Hart, C.A. Cuevas, L.E. (2002). Where is the Meningitis Belt? Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene96, 242-249


The forecasting principle

Vaccination epidemics in West Africa

starts

not preventable

The forecasting principle

Early_______________ Peak_________________Late______________

7000

6000

5000

4000

Cases

-Rain______

3000

-Rain______

2000

+Dust

1000

0

2

Dec.

January

April

May

February

Dec.

January

March

April

May


Predictability of Sahelian rainfall using experimental data from IRI.

O. Ndiaye, L. Goddard and N. Ward, in prep


Greater horn of africa project objectives
Greater Horn of Africa Project Objectives from IRI.

  • Improvement of regional climate models and products

  • Increased availability and application of tailored products for reducing vulnerability to climate extremes and adapting to climate change.

  • More effective applications of climate products and services to reduce disaster losses and promote sustainable development.


Objective 2 tailored products

Problem area from IRI.

User(s)

Requirement

Application

1) Areas of high Rift Valley Fever (RVF) outbreak risk

Red Sea Livestock Trade Commission

Predict RVF risk areas 3-6 months in advance

Identify and treat RVF outbreaks before regional trade barriers are imposed

2) Livestock fodder availability

Pastoral communities in northern Kenya and southern Ethiopia

Narrow the confidence interval of the current Livestock Early Warning System (LEWS) 90 day fodder outlook using a seasonal forecast

Provide improved 90 day early warning to nomadic pastoralists and sedentary agro-pastoralists of expected fodder conditions

3) Livestock fodder availability

Organization of African Union/Inter-African Bureau of Animal Resources (OAU/IBAR)

Provide 3-6 month early warning of major regional fodder shortages

Support IBAR livestock purchase programs

4) Pastoralist livelihood system stress

USAID, other donors and international emergency assistance organizations

Simulate climate shock impacts on pastoralist livelihood systems and food security

Contingency and operational assistance planning

Objective 2: Tailored Products


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