Optima inco mpc third management board meeting may 18 19 2008 gumpoldskirchen
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OPTIMA INCO-MPC Third Management Board Meeting , May 18/19 2008 Gumpoldskirchen. DDr. Kurt Fedra Environmental Software & Services GmbH A-2352 Gumpoldskirchen Austria [email protected] http://www.ess.co.at. Baseline targets:. WRM performance targets:

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OPTIMA INCO-MPC Third Management Board Meeting , May 18/19 2008 Gumpoldskirchen

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Optima inco mpc third management board meeting may 18 19 2008 gumpoldskirchen

OPTIMA INCO-MPCThird Management Board Meeting,May 18/19 2008Gumpoldskirchen

DDr. Kurt Fedra Environmental Software & Services GmbH

A-2352 Gumpoldskirchen Austria [email protected] http://www.ess.co.at


Baseline targets

Baseline targets:

  • WRM performance targets:

    • Complete and reasonable scenario

    • Total outflow +/- 25% observations

    • Daily flow at least for ONE station close to end node */ 2

    • Basic economic assessment (basis for optimization and comparison )

  • STREAM performance targets:

    • DO/BOD within reasonable ranges – any WQ observation data ?

    • WQ related economics under development


Case studies how to proceed

Case studies: how to proceed

By PM 18 (December 2005):

  • Baselines ready for each case

  • Basic economic assessment

  • Basic water technologies ready to link, on-line data base

  • Optimization framework agreed:

    • Criteria, objectives, constraints


Work plan simple version

Work Plan (simple version)

WP 07 Cyprus + +-

WP 08 Turkey + + +

WP 09 Lebanon+- -

WP 10 Jordan+- -

WP 11Palestine/Israel+- -

WP 12 Tunisia+ - -

WP 13 Morocco+- -


Case studies how to proceed1

Case studies: how to proceed

Optimization framework:

  • Basic economics – TR, CY, ?

  • Objectives, constraints:

  • Instruments, water technologies:

    New questionnaires ?

    INSTRUMENTS, CONSTRAINTS


Model use targets

Model use targets:

WRM performance targets:

  • Complete and reasonable scenarios includes groundwater links, realistic reservoir data

  • Provide observation data for CONTROL NODES, add control nodes for all monitoring stations -> compliance, flood damages

  • Basic economic assessment


Economics

ECONOMICS:

Direct Costs:

  • Capital and OMR for start nodes, reservoirs, diversions.

    Direct Benefits:

  • demands satisfied for demand nodes


Economics1

ECONOMICS:

Indirect Costs:

  • shortfall at demand nodes

  • penalties at control nodes

  • flood damages

    Indirect benefits:

  • compliance at control nodes


Economics2

ECONOMICS:

Under development for QUALITY:

  • Cost of treatment(capital, OMR)

  • Cost of waste water reduction(at demand nodes, capital and OMR)

  • Penalties for standard violations (control)

  • Use benefits for clean water (demand)

  • Compliance benefits(control nodes)

  • Use benefits(reaches, e.g., recreational)


Optimisation

OPTIMISATION:

CONSTRAINTS:

  • Global constraints

  • Node specific constraints

  • Sectoral (not implemented)

    directly derived from model results:


Constraints

CONSTRAINTS:

CONCEPTVALUE

Overall Supply / Demand ratio>

Reliability of supply %>

Unallocated waterm3/s<

Shortfall m3/s<

Content change/decrease % <


Constraints1

CONSTRAINTS:

Total Cost (combined)Total Benefit (combined)

Total Cost (direct)Total Benefit (direct)

Cost/Benefit ratio (comb.)Benefit/Cost ratio (comb.)

Cost/Benefit ratio (direct)Benefit/Cost ratio (direct)

Water Cost (combined)Economic Efficiency (comb.)

Water Cost (direct)Economic Efficiency (direct)

Net Benefit (combined)

Net Benefit (direct)

And any number of combinations, ratios, node specific, sectoral values, etc.


Optimisation1

OPTIMISATION:

  • Technologies are applied to NODES.

  • Each technology affects some model parameters (demand, efficiency/losses) for the different node types at a cost.

  • Benefits accrue from water supplied.

  • Optimization approach: Satisficing

    • First round: Model selects the combinations of technologies that meets all constraints


Technologies

TECHNOLOGIES:

Are NOT restricted to technology in a narrow sense, can include policies and institutional change that do affect supply, allocation, demand, efficiency, quality

FOR example:

  • Pricing/subsidies affects demand

  • Market (privatization) affects allocation

  • Enforcement (regulatory change) affects quality and efficiency


Water technologies

Water Technologies

  • Name, META DATA

  • Description (unstructured, hypertext HTML, types)

  • Application domain

    • allocation, supply, structures, quality

  • Investment (annualized):

    • unit cost, reference unit for scaling

  • Operation (annual):

    • OMR unit cost, reference unit for scaling

  • Effects multiplier for:

    • Demand, consumptive use, distributions losses

      /MANUALS/WATERWARE/watertechnologies.html


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