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Warning Decision Training Branch July 2010

A Road Map to Enhanced Simulation Capabilities for the National Weather Service: A 5-Year Strategic Vision. Warning Decision Training Branch July 2010. Overview. Current State of WFO Simulations Discussion of Needs Advanced Simulations and Exercises that Address Needs Leveraging AWIPS-2.

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Warning Decision Training Branch July 2010

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  1. A Road Map to Enhanced Simulation Capabilities for the National Weather Service:A 5-Year Strategic Vision Warning Decision Training BranchJuly 2010

  2. Overview • Current State of WFO Simulations • Discussion of Needs • Advanced Simulations and Exercises that Address Needs • Leveraging AWIPS-2

  3. WES Development & Terminology WES2 Bridge CurrentWES (AWIPS1) WES2AWIPS2 Baseline 2010- AWIPS1 2010-2014 FY 2014

  4. Current WFO Simulation Capabilities • Two WES configurations (WFO distribution: ~50% each) • Easier to manage & update • Easier to transfer cases Internet AWIPS WES WES • NWS Instruction 20-101: 4 simulations/year • Few WFOs: additional machines for teamwork simulations in warning scenarios • Case Review (e.g., damage surveys and local research) • Local & National simulations (Science and Technology Concepts)

  5. Current WFO Simulation Capabilities • Limited AWIPS Functionality • Level of WES knowledge among SOOs and ITOs not ideal • Current capabilities fully exploited? • WESSL: WES Scripting Language: audio, video, reports, graphics, training material

  6. AWIPS-2 & AWIPS-2 Extended • WES 2 to be “baselined” along with other projects • NAWIPS (National Centers) • CHPS (RFCs) • Thin Client (software) • Initial WES 2 operating capability FY 2012 • Final WES 2 operating capability FY 2014 • OSIP Project ongoing

  7. Needs: Root Cause Analysis • Human Factors Causes • Communication/Teamwork with EM/Spotters/Forecasters • Incorrect Use of Tools • Distractions/Loss of SA • Staffing, Workload, Fatigue, Inexperience (2004-2009) Human Factors (84%) Science & Technology (16%)

  8. Three Recurring Issues For The Past 20+ Years:Distributed and CollaborativeDecision-MakingCommunication Coordination (Teamwork) Needs: Service Assessments Recommendation: “NWS should communicate with EMs and other key decision makers to highlight unusual or fast-changing situations involving extreme weather events”.Recommendation: “When a severe weather event is moving from one CWA to another, the appropriate WFOs should contact each other to ensure a full and complete exchange of relevant information”. Recommendation: “NWSFO EWX should work with EM officials to seek alternative and more efficient methods to confirm receipt of warnings”. Recommendation: “NWS should … explore alternative methods of communicating … to EM officials”. Finding: The lack of real-time feedback… contributed to … underestimating the magnitude of flash flooding. Finding: Despite outreach efforts and table-top exercises where communications with NWS was stressed, EMs generally were unaware of the NWS need for real-time information in a flood event. Finding: Forecasters had little time to solicit feedback. Calls to 911 centers were unproductive. Direct contact with EMs … would be better. Finding: “Some media partners … prefer more definitive tornado warnings and SVSs”.Finding: “There was no coordination between WFO Nashville and WFO Louisville on the … tornado warning”.Recommendation: “NWS should require regions to develop severe weather coordination procedures between neighboring offices”. Recommendation: “The NWS should continue to work aggressively with emergency managers and others in law enforcement … for timely receipt of severe weather information.” “Recommendation: WCMs should work with local emergency management personnel to develop new or enhanced communication systems”. Finding: Very little real-time information … was relayed to the NWS by local officials.

  9. Integrated Warning Team Scenarios Successful Warnings: Public Safety • Participants assigned IWT role they don’t normally have • Level playing ground; all players have some discomfort • Walk in someone else’s shoes: helps build empathy and understanding for the IWT partner needs → better communication & collaboration • Scenario and Debrief Guided by Experts • Challenging event with as much realism as possible • Debrief exercise requires players to think about changes they could make in their own role that may cause positive outcomes for other team members. EM NWS Media

  10. Integrated Warning Team Scenarios: Motivation • Research: Cross training helps all members of the team • Shared mental models • Could lead to Improved Shared Situation Awareness

  11. Integrated Warning Team Scenarios: Increasing Team SA Tell me and I forget. Teach me and I remember. Involve me and I learn. -- Benjamin Franklin • Every NWS forecaster: 2 to 4 simulations per year. • EMs: Regular Exercises (small and large scale) • Few Integrated warningTeam exercises.

  12. Integrated Warning Team Scenarios: Examples • Full IWT scenario • Natl Severe Weather Workshops • Natl Hurricane Conference • 3 rooms: synchronized simulations w/ WES, FasTrac, OK-FIRST/NC-FIRST “Lite“ • NWSChat, SA display, TV, Vote • One IWT component, “fake” others • Natl Hydrologic Warning Council • Assoc. of State Floodplain Managers Conference

  13. Distributed and Collaborative SimulationsFocused on Human Factors and Decision-Support NCEP & RFCs WFO LSX WFO SGF WFO PAH WFO LZK NWSTDFacilitator(s) Other Gov’t Decision Makers Paducah EOC Wash. Co. EOC • Collaborative simulations and interagency exercises: partnerships, teamwork and decision support • Intraoffice and interoffice simulations • Focus on teamwork and other social and human factors issues

  14. Proposed Simulation Levels(J. Zeitler/EWX and K. Van Speybroeck/SMG) • Level 0: Training, Professional Development, EOC Visits, NIMS/ICS • Level 1: Developmental Simulation • Verification of plans, procedures, equipment – possibly segmented • Can serve as pre-training for Level 2 • Level 2: Internal Simulation (local participation) • 1-2 Forecasters training, 1-4 hours duration • Local Simulation Supervisor • Not focused on “training/learning” but working out the kinds before real-time ops • Level 3: Train with local decision makers • Use available (local) partners, 1-2 forecasters • Local simulation supervisor or from neighboring forecast office • 4-8 hour duration • Opportunity to interact with decision-maker

  15. Proposed Simulation Levels(J. Zeitler/EWX and K. Van Speybroeck/SMG) • Level 4: Full WFO Team/Partners • WFO shift team with partners • Play the scenario through to completion • Use “real” team members in their roles • Level 5: FEMA Table top style (WFO Team/multiple agencies/ROC-SRH) • Full Team (customers, WFO team, SRH ROC, EOC, kitchen sink) • Could be multi-day (FEMA Tabletop with WFO spinning their training into FEMA big picture) • Use all available bodies and any additional that can be loaned • Long fuse planning required • Major time/resource requirements

  16. Z&VS: Level 0 Examples: Precursor Training • Residence • Distance • Synchronous • Asynchronous • Human Factors Concepts • Teamwork • Communication • Leadership • NWSTC • COMET/Virtual Classroom • FDTB • WDTB • VISIT • Others

  17. Z&VS: Level 1-2 Examples: Intraoffice Simulations WFO SGF • Sectorization • Teamwork / Workload Redistribution Both localized to SGF WFO SGF • Service hand-off/coordination • Forecast collaboration Localized to SGF Localized to LSX All simulations designed to fulfill specific learning or performance objectives to apply human factors concepts in real-world contexts.

  18. Z&VS: Level 2+ Examples: Interoffice Simulations WFO TOP WFO EAX • Backup Service Drills • Service hand-off (multi-CWA events) • Forecast collaboration SPC • Watch By County Collaboration

  19. Z&VS: Level 2+ Examples: Nationally Facilitated Simulations WFO LSX WFO SGF WDTB/FDTB/NWSTC WFO PAH WFO LZK Localization: same or individual WFOsFacilitator: human factors expertise • Drills on National Policy Changes (e.g., storm based warnings) • Teamwork and other “soft skills” • “Cross-pollinate” local WFO best practices throughout the NWS.

  20. Z&VS: Level 2+ Examples: Regionally Facilitated Simulations WFO LIX WFO MOB SR ROC WFO LCH NHC SR ROC • Drills on Regional Policy Changes • Regional collaboration • Large multi-CWA events like hurricanes, ice storms, widespread floods

  21. Z&VS: Level 3-5 Examples: Interagency Simulations • Decision Support • Weather Support for EM Exercises • Partnerships • Polish Communication Skills • Practice Collaboration prior to Real Events (e.g., FEMA) • Likely to reveal real issuesthat need addressing. Paducah EOC WFO PAH Wash Co. EOC • AWIPS-2 “Thin Client” • Web Page populated by AWIPS-2 micro-engine during simulation

  22. Internet Moving Towards Distributed and Collaborative Simulations • Science and Technology – single workstation (current capability) • Human Factors • Single workstation (limited human factors capability) • Multiple workstations (required for situational human factors training) SA Display WES 2 WES 2 centrally managed, every WFO, NC and RFC; (new machines) WES 2Bridge(new) WES 2Bridge Lite (existing +monitors) WES 2Bridge WES 2Bridge Lite • Intra-WFO teamwork & collaboration in warning situations • Team SA • more immersive • Collaborative andcentrally facilitatedsimulations (FY11) (FY12) (FY13) *note: improvements are cumulative each year

  23. Goal: Fully Distributive & Collaborative End-State (FY 14-15) • Local Needs • Case development • Data review • Research • Science Training • Technology Training • Some Human Factors Local WES • Collaborative simulations • Human Factors focus • Neighboring WFOs (ISC and backup) • Training Community* instructors • NWS: WFOs, RFCs, NCEP, CWSUs • NWS and I-Mets • NWS and warning partners (EM/media) • NWS and other partners Audio/Video (e.g. skype) Social Networks Internet Thin Clients Decision Support Services SA Display Central WES Central WES *Training Community = COMET, FDTB, NWSTC, VISIT, WDTB, etc.

  24. Human Resources Impacts • Training community instructors to develop and facilitate centrally delivered simulations • Requires expertise in human factors and social science • Branches, Regions, SOOs, SMEs • Training staff to assist SOOs in case creation • Workshops: Facilitation and Application of Human Factors to Simulations and Operations • SOOs, WCMs and other focal points Main Impacts and Culture Shifts • Collaboration • Communication & Collaboration • Team Building (Internal) • Team Building (Stakeholders) • Time Availability

  25. Operational AWIPS-2 Configuration(Simplified) CP PX DX LDM EDEX Server database LX CAVE NAS: HDF

  26. WES-2 Bridge Isolated Simulation Model WES 2 Bridge WES 2 Bridge Software edex.alerts notification database wes.time synchronization EDEX Server CAVE HDF WES2Plug-in

  27. WES-2 Distributed Simulations TESTED Messaging mechanism to synchronize one CAVE with WES-2 permits synchronization of multiple CAVEs – even on multiple machines!

  28. WESSL-2 (Seeking New Name) Future Plans: • Exploit Geospatial-enabled database capabilities • Situation Awareness Display • Automated Guidance & Evaluation Tools • Comparison with expert solutions • Key Information Overlooked: Pause Simulation • Performance Statistics • Decision/Weight Ranking Tools

  29. Conclusion • Distributed and Collaborative Simulations: • Help solve unmet needs from the past 20+ years • Address evolving & reveal emerging needs for next 5+ years Four Waypoints to Arrive at the Destination: Initial 5-Year Strategic Plan (FY11 - FY15) Hardware/Software Development, Deployment, and Upgrades Staffing for Technical and Instructional Developers Staff Time & Buy-in for Forecasters and Management

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