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What’s Wrong With These Pictures ?

What’s Wrong With These Pictures ?. The Same Thing as This. The “Facts” “fact finding is more effective than fault finding” Demographic Economic Political. DEMOGRAPHICS “ Of all the forces that will change the world over the next generation, demography is probably the most important”

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What’s Wrong With These Pictures ?

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  1. What’s Wrong With These Pictures?

  2. The Same Thing as This

  3. The “Facts” “fact finding is more effective than fault finding” • Demographic • Economic • Political

  4. DEMOGRAPHICS “Of all the forces that will change the world over the next generation, demography is probably the most important” Hamish McRae, The World in 2020

  5. Demographics: Living Longer

  6. Demographics: Aging

  7. Demographics: Changing

  8. Economics: Earnings

  9. POLITICS: The Theory “A politician thinks of the next election; a statesman of the next generation.”

  10. A Model of the Issue“If the world were perfect, algebra would actually come in handy”

  11. The ‘Model’ • SSB = B*R • R = POP65*(RTR65) • SST = t*I*W • W = POP18*LFPR18 • SST = SSB

  12. The Result t = B * POP62 * RTR62 I POP 18 LF18

  13. Social Security Tax Rate (t)

  14. B/I

  15. POP18/POP62

  16. RTR62/LF18

  17. Policy Options Lower B/I • Lower benefits (B) • Raise income (I) Lower (POP62/POP18) • Immigration (POP18) Lower (RFR/LF18) • Raise retirement age (RFR) • Raise labor force participation rate (LF18)

  18. Arnold Toynbee “The first tragedy is that man allows himself to be victimized by the artificial environment that he has created...The second tragedy is that he could save himself from at least the direst of consequences if... he were to allow his foresight to get the better of his inertia.”

  19. What’s Wrong With These Pictures?

  20. Intergenerational Conflict “The baby-boom generation has crippled our economy with 13 digit debt and depleted our natural resources. Unlike our parents, we will have difficulty finding jobs,we will not own our own homes... We see the world they have left us and many of us choose to drink”

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