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Learning from the Past to Protect the Future: Creating our Nation’s Next Earthquake & Tsunami Survival Stories

Learning from the Past to Protect the Future: Creating our Nation’s Next Earthquake & Tsunami Survival Stories . John D. Schelling, Interim Mitigation & Recovery Section Manager Washington State Emergency Management. john.schelling@mil.wa.gov 253.512.7071 Twitter: @ jdschelling.

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Learning from the Past to Protect the Future: Creating our Nation’s Next Earthquake & Tsunami Survival Stories

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  1. Learning from the Past to Protect the Future: Creating our Nation’s Next Earthquake & Tsunami Survival Stories John D. Schelling, Interim Mitigation & Recovery Section Manager Washington State Emergency Management john.schelling@mil.wa.gov 253.512.7071 Twitter: @jdschelling

  2. Where We Have Been? The Past…

  3. Great 1964 Alaska Earthquake & Tsunami: Effects in Washington State • March 27, 1964 @ 5:36 p.m. • Magnitude 9.2 • Most powerful earthquake recorded in U.S. history and second largest of all time (Chile M9.5, 1960) • Resulting tsunami peak was about 220 feet in Valdez inlet and many others locations were over 50 feet • Entire west coast and Hawaii affected from tsunami, especially California and Oregon. • The wave height in Washingtonwas about 10-12 feet Highway 109 bridge over Copalis River, WA Houses torn apart at Pacific Beach, WA

  4. Today is the 13th Anniversary of the Nisqually Earthquake • February 28, 2001 @ 10:54 a.m. • Magnitude 6.8 • 11 miles northeast of Olympia, Washington • 31.6 miles deep • Felt from British Columbia to Montana • Amazingly, there were no deaths, ~400 injuries • Estimated losses of $1 - $4 billion Courtesy: USGS, 2001

  5. Where Have Others Been Recently? The Not so Distant Past…

  6. Canterbury, New Zealand Earthquakes • September 4, 2010 @ 4:35 a.m. • Magnitude 7.1 • 25 miles west of Christchurch near Darfield • 6 miles deep • February 22, 2011 @12:51 p.m. • Magnitude 6.3 • 3 miles southwest of Christchurch • 3 miles deep Christchurch Christchurch

  7. Pre-Earthquake:Christchurch Central Business District (CBD)

  8. During Earthquake:Christchurch Central Business District

  9. “Downtown” Christchurch 2-Years Later

  10. Post-Earthquake: (Recovery in Process)Christchurch Central Business District

  11. We have come a long way from 1964…and even 2001 The Present…

  12. Christchurch Teaches Us That: • LOW Risk = NO Risk USGS, 2008

  13. Key Lessons from Christchurch: Hazard Assessment & Pre-Disaster Mitigation Really Matter…and Really Work! • Hazard Assessment is Essential: • Prior to this earthquake sequence, the Greendale Fault had not been identified. • Mitigation Works: “For example, the mitigation measures put in place after a vulnerability study (1994-97) cost $6 million but are estimated to have saved $60-65 million in direct asset replacement costs as result of the earthquakes in addition to the contribution to rapid restoration of services.” • Source: Review of the Civil Defence Emergency Management Response to the 22 February Christchurch Earthquake, 29 June 2012 Source: GNS Science, 2011

  14. New Zealand Teaches Us Another Lesson: • Social Science needs to be part of the process, and it needs to play an equal role. • The USGS Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) project is a GREAT start, but needs to be scaled to a national level in order to be most effective. • With the potential use of Earthquake Early Warning, we NEED a holistic approach…one that considers not only how to get a warning to people, but effectively teaches them WHAT TO DO once it arrives.

  15. Effective Branding of Seismic Safety:Great ShakeOut Earthquake Safety Drills 2013 Official ShakeOut Regions 21 Regions (+5 from 2012) 44 U.S. States/ Territories (+20) Total Registration (worldwide) 2013: 24.7 million 2012: 19.5 million 2011: 12.5 million 2010: 8.0 million 2009: 6.9 million 2008 5.4 million

  16. Washington State Earthquake Scenario Catalog: A Virtual Playbook for Natural Hazards Management • USGS ShakeMap • FEMA Loss Estimation (HAZUS) Report • USGS Community Vulnerability Information • Scenario Fact Sheet (EMD, USGS, FEMA, NOAA) Suite of Materials (accessible at www.dnr.wa.gov):

  17. Washington State Earthquake Scenario Catalog: Impacts Viewer for Planning, Preparedness, Mitigation, & Response

  18. But we still have a long way to go! How do we get there from here?(as quickly and inexpensively as possible…of course) The Future…

  19. What would a repeat of the 1964 Alaska Earthquake and Tsunami Look Like in the Lower 48? The Cascadia Earthquake Scenario Image Source: USGS • Magnitude 9.0 • Felt region-wide • Shaking intensities greatest along coast & where local conditions amplify seismic waves • Injuries: 30,000 + • Fatalities: 10,000 + • Economic losses: $81+ Billion in Oregon & Washington alone. • Source: Cascadia Region Earthquake Workgroup (www.crew.org)

  20. Marching boldly towards Resilience…one state at a time • How do you get recovery underway more rapidly and get your economy moving? Don’t let infrastructure break to begin with. • Recovery Planning…in advance.

  21. The Most Effective Way to a Resilient Future is Through NEHRP and TWEA • Both the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) and the Tsunami Warning & Education Act (TWEA) are critical to helping states and local communities succeed in both identifying and reducing near- and long-term risk and increasing life-safety. • These two key laws provide the necessary underpinning for a coordinated and effective national strategy for to reduce our future earthquake and tsunami losses.

  22. The Most Effective Way to a Resilient Future is Through NEHRP and TWEA. • National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (NEHRP) • NEHRP provides a strategic nation direction and helps marshal sometimes disconnected entities in a common direction • Without a reauthorization, agencies such as FEMA do not have a line item in their budget for these activities. • We are seeing the consequences of cash matching requirements…consider in-kind to ensure that all states can participate in the program • Tsunami Warning & Education Act (TWEA) • Funding that supports hazard assessment, warning capability, and community-based preparedness may now be in greater jeopardy simply due to National Weather Service reorganization

  23. With every disaster comes opportunity. Will we seize our opportunities to create a better, more resilient nation before or after our next big earthquake(s) and tsunami(s)?

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