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Branko Grisogono Dept. of Geophysics, Faculty of Science Thanks to: Č. Branković & I. Güttler

On Recent Climate Change and Modeling Future Climate Scenarios. Branko Grisogono Dept. of Geophysics, Faculty of Science Thanks to: Č. Branković & I. Güttler Croatian Weather Service (DHMZ). OUTLINE. Data: Global Past, Present →?→ Future Numerical Models (  Simulators)

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Branko Grisogono Dept. of Geophysics, Faculty of Science Thanks to: Č. Branković & I. Güttler

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  1. On Recent Climate Change and Modeling Future Climate Scenarios Branko Grisogono Dept. of Geophysics, Faculty of Science Thanks to: Č. Branković & I. Güttler Croatian Weather Service (DHMZ)

  2. OUTLINE • Data: Global Past, Present →?→ Future • Numerical Models (Simulators) • Climate vs. Weather • More of Current Results: Present → Future • Regional Climate Change • Tentative Conclusions → Discussion

  3. IPCC 2007 Observed Data

  4. 5th IPCC, late 2013 - observed data

  5. 5th IPCC, late 2013 - observed data

  6. Meteorology, Oceanography, Glaciology, Vulcanology,… Climatology BASIC ISSUES: - MEASUREMENTS, WITH THEIR ERRORS, ARE SPARSE IN SPACE & TIME. THUS, INITIAL STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE & OCEAN IS ONLY KNOWN PARTLY - NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP) & CLIMATE MODELS CAN'T FULLY RESOLVE IN SPACE & TIME ALL THE RELEVANT PHYSICAL PROCESSES (ASIDE APPROXIMATIONS) - ATMOSPHERES & OCEANS ARE INHERENTLY CHAOTIC BESIDES STRONG DETERMINISTIC COMPONENTS

  7. Numerical modeling of weather & climate - The atmosphere’s behavior is governed by a set of physical conservation laws telling how the air moves (Newton’s laws of motion), about heating-cooling (laws of thermodynamics), roles of moisture… - The governing Partial Differential Equations (PDE’s) can’t be solved analytically – only numerical (i.e., approximate) solutions are possible * Given the current state, I.C. & B.C., the equations may be used to pass the info forward in time  forecast * The observations give the sparse current state – an incomplete picture, the weather & climate models may process the obs. → a fuller picture of reality

  8. Unresolved Processes  Parameterized Parameterized: Radiation, Moist Processes, Turbulence,…

  9. Predictability, like Turbulence, is Flow Dependent

  10. Weather vs. Climate Models • Resolution & integration length of the governing PDE’s (motion, mass, thermodynamics, spicies) • Parameterizations (different space - & time-scales) e.g., weather models might have slight drift (may avoid some feedbacks, etc.) …climate modes not! • Sometimes numerics, due to numerous couplings (feedbacks) being modeled differently, etc. • Oceans, soil, biosphere, ice,… treated differently

  11. IPCC 2007 Model Simulations

  12. Temp. at 2m,Summer(2011-2040) minus (1961-1990) HadGEM1 EH5OM GFDLCM21 RegCM srednjak ansambla

  13. ExtremeEvents No. Wintertime Cold Days No. Summertime Warm Days

  14. Future ofNumerical ClimateModeling ? Global Cloud-Resolving Models (CRM) Satellite image NICAM simulation at Δx = 3.5km

  15. 5th IPCC, late 2013 - numerical simulations

  16. TENTATIVE CONCLUSIONS • Current surface temp. upward trends & future predictions are unusual, unexplained by natural internal climate variability • “Predictions” are based on greenhouse gas emission scenarios & a link between the gases concentrations & temp. through modeling & simulations • Included: population growth, economic development, technol. change, social interactions • Besides large spatio-temporal variations, global warming is real, it exceeds in magnitude & pace natural changes over the last 103 yr.

  17. TENTATIVE CONCLUSIONS cont’d • Immediate changes seem needed: lowering emissions of green-house gasses to meet the scenario with global ~ +2oC in ≈ yr. 2100 • Targeting and promoting more human technologies, renewable energies, healthier food & water  Humanistic approach needed! • It is wrong to deploy “instrumental rationalism” (max. efficiency only) & blind pragmatism based on e.g., large resources & markets • Make reliable regional climate – economy projections for next few decades (agronomy, energy, tourism, education, etc.)

  18. … Za dalju diskusiju … * Klimatske promjene imaju utjecaj na gotovo sve oblike ljudske aktivnosti * Istraživanje meteoroloških aspekata klimatskih promjena - jedan od najvećih izazova suvremene klimatologije(kompleksnost, prediktabilnost, ...) * Istraživanje utjecaja klimatskih promjena na socio-ekonomske faktore (ublažavanje i prilagodba) * U istraživanje klimatskih promjena uključen je veliki broj institucija i znanstvenika * Važno definirati jasnu znanstvenu poziciju kako bi se moguće odluke zasnivale na znanstvenim činjenicama – primjer: potrebna je solidna znanstvena podloga kako bi se mogla opravdati novčana ulaganja u energiju izobnovljivih izvora * Uloga klimatskog modeliranja i simuliranja nezaobilazna – jedini način kako “predvidjeti” klimatske promjene * Odgovornost institucija i grupa uključenih u klimatsko modeliranje * Poboljšanje i unaprijeđivanje globalnih i regionalnih klimatskih modela– vezano i vrlo ovisno o razvoju: primjenjene i numeričke matematike (PDE !), geofizike i računalne tehnologije

  19. I’M AN AIR-CONDITIONED MIAOU-UU ..but soon maybe dead.. bgrisog@gfz.hr www.pmf.unizg.hr/geof

  20. 5th IPCC, late 2013 - numerical simulations

  21. Precipitation, winter(2011-2040) minus (1961-1990) EH5OM Ensemble mean RegCM GFDLCM21 HadGEM1

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