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Peak Oil. Models to help understand peak oil Dr. Robert J. Brecha University of Dayton. Chautauqua Course, May 22-24, 2006. Some Basics. +Alaska. Lower 48. US Energy Information Agency: US. Indonesia. UK. Iran?. Venezuela.

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Peak Oil

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Peak oil

Peak Oil

Models to help understand peak oil

Dr. Robert J. Brecha

University of Dayton

Chautauqua Course, May 22-24, 2006

Some basics

Some Basics


Lower 48

US Energy Information Agency:

Many countries have peaked






Many Countries Have Peaked!

Association for the study of peak oil aspo

Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO)

Opec proved crude oil reserves

OPEC Proved Crude Oil Reserves

Energy Information Agency, posted March 2005, January 1, 1980 - January 1, 2005 Estimates



Gaussian fit to us production

Gaussian Fit to US Production

Usgs and cumulative production

USGS and Cumulative Production

Peak oil


= kQ(1 – Q/Q∞)


Hubbert’s Logistic Curve

“Economic” argument: We will always

find more and increase ultimate recovered amount

1980 Prediction

Problem with logistic curves

Problem with Logistic Curves

At early stages, curves for widely

differing total amounts may

look very similar.

There are too many free

fitting parameters

The point remains

The Point Remains …

Hubbert linearization

Hubbert Linearization

P = kQ(1 – Q/Q∞)

Q (Gbbl)

Hl texas

HL - Texas

Hl us 48

HL – US 48

Hl saudi arabia

HL – Saudi Arabia

Hl world

HL - World

Us geological survey estimates

US Geological Survey Estimates

Bentley, Global Oil and Gas Depletion – an Overview, Energy Policy30 (2002)

Rough outline of the future

Rough Outline of the Future

  • USGS published reserve estimates in 1998

  • EIA uses those estimates, along with consumption patterns to predict future growth

  • A gap between predicted demand and predicted production appears by 2025

  • Gap is to be filled with a) Saudi Arabia producing >20 MMbbl/day, and b) “unidentified unconventional” sources

Creaming curves

Creaming Curves

One prediction 1998

One Prediction (1998)

R.C. Duncan and W. Youngquist,“Encircling the Peak of World Oil Production,”

Natural Resources Research 8, 219-233 (1999). Also by the same authors: “The World

Petroleum Life-Cycle”

Duncan and youngquist predictions

Duncan and Youngquist Predictions

Finding norways

Finding Norways

R.C. Duncan and W. Youngquist, “The World Petroleum Life-Cycle”

Peak oil

2/3 !

Matthew Simmons – “Twilight in the Desert”

Peak models

Peak Models



A brief history of oil

A Brief History of Oil

Peak oil

Keep Watching…

Peak good oil

Peak “Good” Oil

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, August 2005

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