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Peak Oil. Models to help understand peak oil Dr. Robert J. Brecha University of Dayton. Chautauqua Course, May 22-24, 2006. Some Basics. +Alaska. Lower 48. US Energy Information Agency: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/pet_frame.html. US. Indonesia. UK. Iran?. Venezuela.

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Peak Oil

Models to help understand peak oil

Dr. Robert J. Brecha

University of Dayton

Chautauqua Course, May 22-24, 2006


Some Basics

+Alaska

Lower 48

US Energy Information Agency: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/pet_frame.html


US

Indonesia

UK

Iran?

Venezuela

Many Countries Have Peaked!

http://www.bp.com/genericsection.do?categoryId=92&contentId=7005893


Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO)


OPEC Proved Crude Oil Reserves

Energy Information Agency, posted March 2005, January 1, 1980 - January 1, 2005 Estimates


Gaussian


Gaussian Fit to US Production


USGS and Cumulative Production


dQ

= kQ(1 – Q/Q∞)

dt

Hubbert’s Logistic Curve

“Economic” argument: We will always

find more and increase ultimate recovered amount

1980 Prediction


Problem with Logistic Curves

At early stages, curves for widely

differing total amounts may

look very similar.

There are too many free

fitting parameters


The Point Remains …


Hubbert Linearization

P = kQ(1 – Q/Q∞)

Q (Gbbl)

http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/1/11/6047/13568


HL - Texas

http://graphoilogy.blogspot.com/


HL – US 48


HL – Saudi Arabia


HL - World


www.ihs.com

US Geological Survey Estimates

Bentley, Global Oil and Gas Depletion – an Overview, Energy Policy30 (2002)


Rough Outline of the Future

  • USGS published reserve estimates in 1998

  • EIA uses those estimates, along with consumption patterns to predict future growth

  • A gap between predicted demand and predicted production appears by 2025

  • Gap is to be filled with a) Saudi Arabia producing >20 MMbbl/day, and b) “unidentified unconventional” sources


Creaming Curves


One Prediction (1998)

R.C. Duncan and W. Youngquist,“Encircling the Peak of World Oil Production,”

Natural Resources Research 8, 219-233 (1999). Also by the same authors: “The World

Petroleum Life-Cycle” http://www.dieoff.com/page133.pdf


Duncan and Youngquist Predictions


Finding Norways

R.C. Duncan and W. Youngquist, “The World Petroleum Life-Cycle”

http://www.dieoff.com/page133.pdf


2/3 !

Matthew Simmons – “Twilight in the Desert”


Peak Models

USGS

BP


A Brief History of Oil


Keep Watching…

http://www.theoildrum.com


Peak “Good” Oil

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, August 2005


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