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SAS-087 TG-034 on Code of Best Practice for Judgement-based OA

SAS-087 TG-034 on Code of Best Practice for Judgement-based OA Background information for ISMOR 2010 Syndicate Session. Diederik Wijnmalen Strategic Choices Dept.; TNO Defence, Security and Safety Organisation for Applied Research, The Netherlands. About ‘Soft’ Operational Analysis.

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SAS-087 TG-034 on Code of Best Practice for Judgement-based OA

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  1. SAS-087 TG-034 onCode of Best Practicefor Judgement-based OA Background information for ISMOR 2010 Syndicate Session Diederik Wijnmalen Strategic Choices Dept.; TNO Defence, Security and Safety Organisation for Applied Research, The Netherlands

  2. About ‘Soft’ Operational Analysis • Soft OA = methodology that is ‘not hard’,i.e. not seeking to abstract mathematically expressed relationships between (physical) variables using quantitative data with the aim of e.g. quantifying (best) resource allocation • Soft OA =methodology that uses judgement and interpretive information,i.e. rather aimed at understanding (complex) problem situations, expert prediction of system behaviour, designing courses of action, coping with time pressure & lack of data & intangibles / uncertainties / unknowns / conflicts of interest / risk / interdependencies, etc. appropriate framework for predominantly subjective, qualitative, participatory situations promising use due to changing nature of problems faced by (Defence) policy and decision makers at both strategic and operational level note: even hard OA has soft elements (e.g. modelling & interpretation issues) • But:Soft OA still met with reluctance to apply / accept in some OA quartersdespite successful applications

  3. Why reluctance towards the use of Soft OR? • Analysts are trained in ‘hard’ disciplines • (Military) clients are familiar with ‘hard’ techniques, not ‘soft’ • Difficulties with ambition and commitment: • (false) feeling of ‘hard conclusions needed’ expectations (exact numbers, clear answers) clash with actual results (insight, common ground, ‘ways forward’) • deep involvement required and, therefore, early commitment  threatening because there is no escape from the results • Problems with acceptance of judgement-based results: • by participants (different groups), by non-participating stakeholders, by scrutineers • A lot of traditional literature about Soft OA tend to be oriented towards: • scientific paradigm • describing the method and how it differs from other methods • how does it work (step-wise procedure) rather than practicalities and benefits from client perspective • Philosophical disputes whether Soft OR truly is OR • Questions about scientific rigour and quality control measures

  4. Terms of Reference (1) Considering that: nature of Defence planning and decision making has changed calls for multi-methodology approach predominantly based on judgement ‘hard’&‘soft’, ‘objective’&‘subjective’, ‘quantitative’&‘qualitative are unhelpful distinctionsregard Soft OA as a ‘methodology of judgement’ judgement-based OA has proven to add value, but validation/credibility still issue need to ensure value maximisation and improve acceptance large body of literature already exists on methods & usage need clarity and focus Tasking of SAS-TG: write a CoBP on JB OA 4

  5. Terms of Reference (2) CoBP Objectives create understanding of what JB OA can/cannot achieve increase credibility and acceptance of JB OAwith client’s perspective & needs for OA as starting pointincl. expectations regarding validity focus on Defence decision making at large (operational & LT strategic planning) set pragmatic rules of the road for analysts when conducting JB OAwithout describing specific methods/techniques promote a MM approach dictated by needs of issues addressed offer guidance as to identifying decision situations & directions to explore Products client-oriented brochure : what (not) to expect, why & when useful analyst-oriented document : how to add (maximised) value for the client 5

  6. TG’s Organisation Chair/Lead: NLD Participants: ACT, CAN, DEU, FRA, GBR, NLD, SWE, AUS Time frame: 2010-2011 Dissemination: Lecture Series Reflection/Review: conference sessions, selected acad. individuals 6

  7. 1st Meeting 12-14 April 2010, Paris-Neuilly (RTA) • brainstorm on issues to be addressed in CoBP • design of programme of work & schedule • design of discussion workshops at ISMOR & OR52

  8. ISMOR Syndicate Session (1) • 12 Propositionscovering range of issues in coping with clients, judgements, results, validation • + some additional clarifying notes • client-/analyst-oriented • syndicate organisation • each syndicate will address 6 propositions • each syndicate has 1 sibling syndicate working in parallel on same propositions • we welcome your critical comments, views, additions, rephrasing please record them! • TG members present will be ‘reluctant’ to offer further guidance

  9. ISMOR Syndicate Session (2) • Questions when addressing a proposition: • Do you agree with this proposition? Why, or why not? • Should this proposition be rephrased? If yes, how? • How can this proposition be fleshed out by giving examples, suggesting criteria and additional aspects, providing conditions for validity, etc.. • If the syndicate has reached an agreement on a (possibly adjusted) proposition, should this proposition be part of a CoBP for JB OA?

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