1 / 12

Automated Downscaling in Fire Weather

Automated Downscaling in Fire Weather . Incident report. Fills in the small scales. Photo courtesy W. (Ruddy) Mell. Regional scale data. LAPS/STMAS. Fine scale forecast. Downscaling. Fire Weather Research. Systems Research and Development

neci
Download Presentation

Automated Downscaling in Fire Weather

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Automated Downscaling in Fire Weather Incident report Fills in the small scales Photo courtesy W. (Ruddy) Mell Regional scale data LAPS/STMAS Fine scale forecast Downscaling

  2. Fire Weather Research • Systems Research and Development - FX-Net (Ingests fire-specific data such as NESDIS fire products) - Gridded FX-Net used by USFS, BLM, NIFC • Modeling Research Project Management for - collaborative fire behavior and fire weather coupled model research (NIST, NCAR, NOAA) - Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) - observations in the fire environment (NOAA, NASA, CU) • Program Development • - NOAA/OAR /NWS Fire Weather Research Initiative • - NSF Science and Technology Center Proposal (CU, USFS, NIST)

  3. Range of Scales & Multiple Models 105 ----------104 m------------- 103 m-----------102 m -----------10 m ---------1 m --- 10-2 m NOAA/GSD WRF-Chem (LES mode) NOAA/GSD Downscaling NIST Level Set Firespread(faster than real time) NIST-WFDS Fire Behavior (slower than real time) regional community / landscape neighborhood / stand NOAA FireWea 11/9/10 basic fuel elements

  4. DataIngest Intermediate data files GSI Model prep FORECAST MODEL Verification Background (or cycled forecast) Observations Data DOWNSCALING in SCHEMATIC DATA FLOW Standalone downscaling module Analysis Scheme Variational LAPS (with downscaling) LAPS Downscaling can work as a stand alone module from background  GSI or other applications such as Fire wx. Downscaling is also an integral part of variational LAPS (STMAS).

  5. A example: Four Mile Canyon Fire, Boulder, CO (6 Sept. 2010) LAPS 1km wind Analysis, 6 Sept. 2010, 22UTC • No surface OBS in Four Mile Canyon; • Few OBS over the higher terrain; • Observed wind over complex terrain is known to be unreliable • How to evaluate?

  6. Surface U wind (colors) Example of Downscaling: Four Mile Canyon Fire 36 33 30 27 24 21 18 15 12 9 6 3 0 -3 -6 Initial input at 8km resolution NORTH-SOUTH Contour lines: topography 0 100 200 EAST – WEST (km) Downscaled output at 1km resolution Finer details in wind in response to high resolution terrain 0 200 100 EAST – WEST (km)

  7. Developmental Testbed Center • Facility where NWP research and operational communities interact to accelerate testing and evaluation of new models and techniques for research applications and operational implementation, without interfering with current operations • CIRA recent contributions include: • WRF microphysics sensitivity analysis • Publication in progress for QPF verification results from HMT-West winter exercises for 2011 and 2012 • DTC quarterly Newsletter ‘Transitions’ • Development and implementation of WRF Domain Wizard and WRF Portal—graphical user interface to WRF

More Related