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Stage

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Lecturer’s desk

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  • Projection Booth

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Modern Languages ML350 Renumbered

R/L handed

broken

desk


Mgmt 276 statistical inference in management room 350 modern languages spring 2012

MGMT 276: Statistical Inference in ManagementRoom 350 Modern LanguagesSpring, 2012

Welcome


Stage

Homework 13: Using Excel to complete ANOVAs

Due Tuesday, April 17th

Homework 14: ANOVA Project

Using Excel to complete your own ANOVA project

Due Thursday, April 19th

Please click in

My last name starts with a

letter somewhere between

A. A – D

B. E – L

C. M – R

D. S – Z

Please double check – All cell phones other electronic devices are turned off and stowed away


Next couple of lectures 4 17 12

Use this as your

study guide

Next couple of lectures 4/17/12

Hypothesis testing with analysis of variance (ANOVA)

Interpreting excel output of hypothesis tests

Constructing brief, complete summary statements

Logic of hypothesis testing with Correlations

Interpreting the Correlations and scatterplots

Simple and Multiple Regression

Using correlation for predictions

Regression uses the predictor variable (independent) to make predictions about the predicted variable (dependent)Coefficient of correlation is name for “r”Coefficient of determination is name for “r2”(remember it is always positive – no direction info)Standard error of the estimate is our measure of the variability of the dots around the regression line(average deviation of each data point from the regression line – like standard deviation)

Coefficient of regression will “b” for each variable (like slope)


Stage

Readings for next exam (Exam 4 is on 4/26/12)

Lind

Chapter 12: Analysis of Variance

Chapter 13: Linear Regression and Correlation

Chapter 14: Multiple Regression

Chapter 15: Chi-Square

Plous

Chapter 17: Social Influences

Chapter 18: Group Judgments and Decisions


Stage

  • Exam 4 – Optional Final Time

  • Two options for completing Exam 4

  • Thursday (4/26/12)

  • Tuesday (5/1/12)

    • Must sign up to take the later Exam 4 by Tuesday (4/24)

  • Only need to take one exam – these are two optional times


Stage

Homework


Stage

Homework


Stage

Homework


Stage

Type of major in school

4 (accounting, finance, hr, marketing)

Grade Point Average

Homework

0.05

2.83

3.02

3.24

3.37


Stage

0.3937

0.1119

If observed F is bigger than critical F:Reject null & Significant!

If observed F is bigger than critical F:Reject null & Significant!

0.3937 / 0.1119 = 3.517

Homework

3.517

3.009

If p value is less than 0.05:Reject null & Significant!

3

24

0.03

4-1=3

# groups - 1

# scores - number of groups

28 - 4=24

# scores - 1

28 - 1=27


Stage

Yes

Homework

= 3.517;

p < 0.05

F (3, 24)

The GPA for four majors was compared. The average GPA was 2.83 for accounting, 3.02 for finance, 3.24 for HR, and 3.37 for marketing. An ANOVA was conducted and there is a significant difference in GPA for these four groups (F(3,24) = 3.52; p < 0.05).


Stage

Average for each group(We REALLY care about this one)

Number of observations in each group

Just add up all scores (we don’t really care about this one)


Stage

Number of groups minus one(k – 1)  4-1=3

“SS” = “Sum of Squares”- will be given for exams

Number of people minus number of groups (n – k)  28-4=24


Stage

SS between

df between

SS within

df within

MS between

MS within


Stage

Type of executive

3 (banking, retail, insurance)

Hours spent at computer

0.05

10.8

8

8.4


Stage

11.46

2

If observed F is bigger than critical F:Reject null & Significant!

If observed F is bigger than critical F:Reject null & Significant!

11.46 / 2 = 5.733

5.733

3.88

If p value is less than 0.05:Reject null & Significant!

2

12

0.0179


Stage

Yes

p < 0.05

F (2, 12)

= 5.73;

The number of hours spent at the computer was compared for three types of executives. The average hours spent was 10.8 for banking executives, 8 for retail executives, and 8.4 for insurance executives. An ANOVA was conducted and we found a significant difference in the average number of hours spent at the computer for these three groups , (F(2,12) = 5.73; p < 0.05).


Stage

Average for each group(We REALLY care about this one)

Number of observations in each group

Just add up all scores (we don’t really care about this one)


Stage

Number of groups minus one(k – 1)  3-1=2

“SS” = “Sum of Squares”- will be given for exams

Number of people minus number of groups (n – k)  15-3=12


Stage

SS between

df between

SS within

df within

MS between

MS within


Let s try one

Let’s try one

In a one-way ANOVA we have three types of variability.

Which picture best depicts the random error variability (also known as the within variability)?

a. Figure 1

b. Figure 2

c. Figure 3

d. All of the above

1.

2.

3.


Let s try one1

Variability between groups

F =

Let’s try one

Variability within groups

Which figure would depict the largest F ratio

a. Figure 1

b. Figure 2

c. Figure 3

d. All of the above

1.

2.

3.


Let s try one2

Let’s try one

Winnie found an observed F ratio of .9, what should she conclude?

a. Reject the null hypothesis

b. Do not reject the null hypothesis

c. Not enough info is given

1.

2.

3.


Let s try one3

How many

observations within

each group?

Let’s try one

An ANOVA was conducted comparing different types of solar cells and there appears to be a significant difference in output of each (watts) F(4, 25) = 3.12; p < 0.05. In this study there were __ types of solar cells and __ total observations in the whole study?

a. 4; 25

b. 5; 30

c. 4; 30

d. 5; 25

F(4, 25) = 3.12; p < 0.05

# groups - 1

# scores - # of groups

# scores - 1


Let s try one4

Let’s try one

An ANOVA was conducted comparing different types of solar cells and there appears to be significant difference in output of each (watts) F(4, 25) = 3.12; p < 0.05. In this study ___

a. we rejected the null hypothesis

b. we did not reject the null hypothesis

F(4, 25) = 3.12; p < 0.05

Observed F

bigger than

Critical F

p < .05


Let s try one5

Let’s try one

An ANOVA was conducted comparing different types of solar cells. The analysis was completed using an alpha of 0.05. But Julia now wants to know if she can reject the null with an alpha of at 0.01. In this study ___

a. we rejected the null hypothesis

b. we did not reject the null hypothesis

F(4, 25) = 3.12; p < 0.05

Comparison of the Observed F and Critical F

Is no longer are helpful because

the critical F is no longer correct.

We must use the p value

p < .05

p > .01


Let s try one6

Let’s try one

An ANOVA was conducted comparing home prices in four neighborhoods (Southpark, Northpark, Westpark, Eastpark) .

For each neighborhood we measured the price of four homes. Please complete this ANOVA table. Degrees of freedom between is _____; degrees of freedom within is ____

a. 16; 4

b. 4; 16

c. 12; 3

d. 3; 12

.


Let s try one7

Let’s try one

An ANOVA was conducted comparing home prices in four neighborhoods (Southpark, Northpark, Westpark, Eastpark) .

For each neighborhood we measured the price of four homes. Please complete this ANOVA table. Mean Square between is _____; Mean Square within is ____

a. 300, 300

b. 100, 100

c. 100, 25

d. 25, 100

.


Let s try one8

Let’s try one

An ANOVA was conducted comparing home prices in four neighborhoods (Southpark, Northpark, Westpark, Eastpark) .

For each neighborhood we measured the price of four homes. Please complete this ANOVA table. The F ratio is:

a. .25

b. 1

c. 4

d. 25

.


Let s try one9

Let’s try one

An ANOVA was conducted comparing home prices in four neighborhoods (Southpark, Northpark, Westpark, Eastpark) .

For each neighborhood we measured the price of four homes. Please complete this ANOVA table. We should:

a. reject the null hypothesis

b. not reject the null hypothesis

Observed F

bigger than

Critical F

p < .05


Let s try one10

Let’s try one

An ANOVA was conducted comparing home prices in four neighborhoods (Southpark, Northpark, Westpark, Eastpark) .

For each neighborhood we measured the price of four homes. The most expensive neighborhood was the ____ neighborhood

a. Southpark

b. Northpark

c. Westpark

d. Eastpark


Stage

An ANOVA was conducted comparing home prices in four neighborhoods (Southpark, Northpark, Westpark, Eastpark) .

For each neighborhood we measured the price of four homes. Please complete this ANOVA table. The best summary statement is:

a. F(3, 12) = 4.0; n.s.

b. F(3, 12) = 4.0; p < 0.05

c. F(3, 12) = 3.49; n.s.

d. F(3, 12) = 3.49; p < 0.05


Stage

A t-test was conducted to see whether “Bankers” or “Retailers” spend more time in front of their computer. Which best summarizes the results from this excel output:

a. Bankers spent significantly more time in front of their

computer screens than Retailers, t(3.5) = 8; p < 0.05

b. Bankers spent significantly more time in front of their

computer screens than Retailers, t(8) = 3.5; p < 0.05

c. Retailers spent significantly more time in front of their

computer screens than Bankers, t(3.5) = 8; p < 0.05

d. Retailers spent significantly more time in front of their

computer screens than Bankers, t(8) = 3.5; p < 0.05

e. There was no difference between the groups


Let s try one11

Let’s try one

A t-test was conducted to see whether “Bankers” or “Retailers” spend more time in front of their computer. Which critical t would be the best to use

a. 3.5

b. 1.859

c. 2.306

d. .004

e. .008


Let s try one12

Let’s try one

An ANOVA was conducted and there appears to be a significant difference in the number of cookies sold as a result of the different levels of incentive F(2, 27) = ___; p < 0.05.

Please fill in the blank

a. 3.3541

b. .00635

c. 6.1363

d. 27.00


Let s try one13

An ANOVA was conducted and we found the following results: F(3,12) = 3.73 ____. Which is the best summary

a. The critical F is 3.89; we should reject the null

b. The critical F is 3.89; we should not reject the null

c. The critical F is 3.49; we should reject the null

d. The critical F is 3.49; we should not reject the null

Let’s try one


Stage

Five steps to hypothesis testing

Step 1: Identify the research problem (hypothesis)

Describe the null and alternative hypotheses

For correlation null is that r = 0 (no relationship)

Step 2: Decision rule

  • Alpha level? (α= .05 or .01)?

  • Critical statistic (e.g. critical r) value from table?

Step 3: Calculations

MSBetween

F =

MSWithin

Step 4: Make decision whether or not to reject null hypothesis

If observed r is bigger then critical r then reject null

Step 5: Conclusion - tie findings back in to research problem


Stage

Finding a statistically significant correlation

  • The result is “statistically significant” if:

    • the observed correlation is larger than the critical correlationwe want our r to be big if we want it to be significantly different from zero!! (either negative or positive but just far away from zero)

    • the p value is less than 0.05 (which is our alpha)

      • we want our “p” to be small!!

    • we reject the null hypothesis

    • then we have support for our alternative hypothesis


Correlation

Correlation

Correlation: Measure of how two variables co-occur and also can be used for prediction

  • Range between -1 and +1


Correlation1

Correlation

  • The closer to zero the weaker the relationship and the worse the prediction

  • Positive or negative


Positive correlation

Positive correlation

  • Positive correlation:

    • as values on one variable go up, so do values for other variable

    • pairs of observations tend to occupy similar relative positions

    • higher scores on one variable tend to co-occur with higher scores on the second variable

    • lower scores on one variable tend to co-occur with lower scores on the second variable

    • scatterplot shows clusters of point

      • from lower left to upper right


Negative correlation

Negative correlation

  • Negative correlation:

    • as values on one variable go up, values for other variable go down

    • pairs of observations tend to occupy dissimilar relative positions

    • higher scores on one variable tend to co-occur with lower scores on

      • the second variable

    • lower scores on one variable tend to

    • co-occur with higher scores on the

    • second variable

    • scatterplot shows clusters of point

    • from upper left to lower right


Zero correlation

Zero correlation

  • as values on one variable go up, values for the other variable

    • go... anywhere

  • pairs of observations tend to occupy seemingly random

    • relative positions

  • scatterplot shows no apparent slope


Stage

http://www.ruf.rice.edu/~lane/stat_sim/reg_by_eye/index.html

http://argyll.epsb.ca/jreed/math9/strand4/scatterPlot.htm

Let’s estimate the correlation coefficient for each of the following

r = +.98

r = .20


Stage

http://www.ruf.rice.edu/~lane/stat_sim/reg_by_eye/index.html

http://argyll.epsb.ca/jreed/math9/strand4/scatterPlot.htm

Let’s estimate the correlation coefficient for each of the following

r = +. 83

r = -. 63


Stage

http://www.ruf.rice.edu/~lane/stat_sim/reg_by_eye/index.html

http://argyll.epsb.ca/jreed/math9/strand4/scatterPlot.htm

Let’s estimate the correlation coefficient for each of the following

r = +. 04

r = -. 43


Correlation2

The more closely the dots approximate a straight line,

the stronger the relationship is.

Correlation

  • Perfect correlation = +1.00 or -1.00

  • One variable perfectly predicts the other

  • No variability in the scatter plot

  • The dots approximate a straight line


Stage

These three have same scatter (none)

But different slopes

These three have same slope

These three have same slope

http://www.ruf.rice.edu/~lane/stat_sim/reg_by_eye/index.html

http://argyll.epsb.ca/jreed/math9/strand4/scatterPlot.htm

Let’s review the values of the correlation coefficient for each of the following

Top Row:

Variability differs (aka scatter or noise)

These three have same slope

These three have same slope

But different scatter

These three have same slope

Middle Row:

Slope differs

Bottom Row:

Non-linear relationships


Correlation matrices

Education

Age

IQ

Income

0.38*

Education

-0.02

0.52*

Age

0.38*

-0.02

0.27*

IQ

0.52*

Income

0.27*

Correlation matrices

Correlation matrix: Table showing correlations for all possible

pairs of variables

1.0**

0.41*

0.65**

0.41*

1.0**

1.0**

0.65**

1.0**

* p < 0.05

** p < 0.01


Correlation matrices1

Education

Age

IQ

Income

Correlation matrices

Correlation matrix: Table showing correlations for all possible

pairs of variables

Education

Age

IQ

Income

0.41*

0.38*

0.65**

-0.02

0.52*

0.27*

* p < 0.05

** p < 0.01


Stage

Finding a statistically significant correlation

  • The result is “statistically significant” if:

    • the observed correlation is larger than the critical correlationwe want our r to be big if we want it to be significantly different from zero!! (either negative or positive but just far away from zero)

    • the p value is less than 0.05 (which is our alpha)

      • we want our “p” to be small!!

    • we reject the null hypothesis

    • then we have support for our alternative hypothesis


Correlation matrices2

Correlation matrices

  • Variable names

  • Make up any name that

    • means something to you

    • VARX = “Variable X”

    • VARY = “Variable Y”

    • VARZ = “Variable Z”

Correlation of X with X

Correlation of Y with Y

Correlation of Z with Z


Correlation matrices3

Correlation matrices

Does this correlation reach statistical

significance?

  • Variable names

  • Make up any name that

    • means something to you

    • VARX = “Variable X”

    • VARY = “Variable Y”

    • VARZ = “Variable Z”

Correlation of X with Y

Correlation of X with Y

p value for correlation of X with Y

p value for correlation of

X with Y


Correlation matrices4

Correlation matrices

Does this correlation reach statistical

significance?

  • Variable names

  • Make up any name that

    • means something to you

    • VARX = “Variable X”

    • VARY = “Variable Y”

    • VARZ = “Variable Z”

Correlation of X with Z

Correlation of X with Z

p value for correlation of

X with Z

p value for correlation of X with Z


Stage

Correlation matrices

Does this correlation reach statistical

significance?

  • Variable names

  • Make up any name that

    • means something to you

    • VARX = “Variable X”

    • VARY = “Variable Y”

    • VARZ = “Variable Z”

Correlation of Y with Z

Correlation of Y with Z

p value for correlation of

Y with Z

p value for correlation of

Y with Z


Correlation matrices5

Correlation matrices

What do we care about?


Correlation how do we calculate the exact r

Correlation - How do we calculate the exact r?

Computational formula for correlation - abbreviated by r

Pearson correlation coefficient (r): A number between -1.00

and =1.00 that describes the linear relationship between

pairs of quantitative variables

The formula:


Correlation how do we calculate the exact r1

Correlation - How do we calculate the exact r?

We want to know the relationship between math ability and

spelling ability. We gave 5 people a 20-point math test and a

20-point spelling test.

.

.

.

Name Math(X) Spelling(Y) XY X2 Y2

KL 1314182169196

GC 918162 81324

JB 712 84 49144

MD 510 50 25100

RG 1 6 6 1 36

Σ 3560 484325800


First let s draw a scatter plot

Name Math(X) Spelling(Y) XY X2 Y2

KL 1314182169196

GC 918162 81324

JB 712 84 49144

MD 510 50 25100

RG 1 6 6 1 36

Σ3560 484325800

.

First let’s draw a scatter plot


Correlation let s do one

Name Math(X) Spelling(Y) XY X2 Y2

KL 1314182169196

GC 918162 81324

JB 712 84 49144

MD 510 50 25100

RG 1 6 6 1 36

Σ3560 484325800

Correlation - Let’s do one

Step 1: Find n

n = 5 (5 pairs)

Step 2: Find ΣX and ΣY

Step 3: Find ΣXY

Step 4: Find ΣX2 and ΣY2

Step 5: Plug in the numbers

The formula:


Stage

Name Math(X) Spelling(Y) XY X2 Y2

KL 1314182169196

GC 918162 81324

JB 712 84 49144

MD 510 50 25100

RG 1 6 6 1 36

Σ3560 484325800

r =

r =

r =

(320)

[√[(1625)-(1225)]

[√[(4000)-(3600)]

[√[(5)(325)-(35)2]

[√[(5)(800)-(60)2]

320

=

[√400]

[√400]

400

Step 5:

Plug in the

numbers

The formula:

(5)(484)-(35)(60)

(2420)-(2100)

r =

.80


Stage

Make decision whether the correlation is different from zero

α= 0.05

df = 3

Observed r(3) = 0.80

Critical r(3) = 0.878

Conclusion:

r = 0.80 is not bigger than a r = .878 so not a significant r (not significantly different than zero – nothing going on)

r(3) = 0.80; n.s.


Stage

Observed r(3) = 0.80

r(3) = 0.80; n.s.

Critical r(3) = 0.878

Conclusion:

r = 0.80 is not bigger than a r = .878 so not a significant r (not significantly different than zero – nothing going on)

These data suggest a strong positive correlation between math

ability and spelling ability, however this correlation was not large

enough to reach significance, r(3) = 0.80; n.s.


Stage

What if we ran more subjects?


Correlation how do we calculate the exact r2

Correlation - How do we calculate the exact r?

Computational formula for correlation - abbreviated by r

Pearson correlation coefficient (r): A number between -1.00

and =1.00 that describes the linear relationship between

pairs of quantitative variables

The formula:


Correlation how do we calculate the exact r3

Correlation - How do we calculate the exact r?

We want to know the relationship between math ability and

spelling ability. We gave 50 people a 20-point math test and a

20-point spelling test.

Name Math(X) Spelling(Y) XY X2 Y2

KL 1314182169196

GC 918162 81324

JB 712 84 49144

: : ::::

RG 1 6 6 1 36

Σ350600484032508000

The same data were copied 10 times to highlight power of larger samples

What if we ran more subjects?


Correlation let s do one1

Name Math(X) Spelling(Y) XY X2 Y2

KL 1314182169196

GC 918162 81324

JB 712 84 49144

:: : : : :

RG 1 6 6 1 36

Σ350600484032508000

Correlation - Let’s do one

Step 1: Find n

n = 50 (50 pairs)

Step 2: Find ΣX and ΣY

Step 3: Find ΣXY

Step 4: Find ΣX2 and ΣY2

Step 5: Plug in the numbers

The formula:


Stage

Name Math(X) Spelling(Y) XY X2 Y2

KL 1314182169196

GC 918162 81324

JB 712 84 49144

MD :::::

RG 1 6 6 1 36

Σ350600484032508000

r =

[√[(50)(3250)-(350)2]

[√[(50)(8000)-(600)2]

3200

r =

4000

Step 5:

Plug in the

numbers

The formula:

(50)(4840)-(350)(600)

r =

.80


Stage

α= 0.05

df = 48

Observed r(48) = 0.80

Critical r(48)= 0.288

r(48) = 0.80; p < 0.05.

What if we had run

more participants??


Stage

Conclusion:

r = 0.80 is bigger than a r = .273 so there is a significant r

(yes significantly different than zero – something going on)

Observed r(48) = 0.80

Critical r(48)= 0.273

r(48) = 0.80; p < 0.05.

These data suggest a strong positive correlation between math

ability and spelling ability, and this correlation was large enough

to reach significance, r(48) = 0.80; p < 0.05


Stage

Thank you!

Good luck with your studies!


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