Nigel Knowles Visiting Professor Cranfield University, UK ( Formerly Director of Technology WS Atkins Consultants, UK ) presented at ASRANET / FENET / IStructE joint meeting on Computational Mechanics in Structural Safety Risk and Reliability June 2003. Concluding Remarks. 6.
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Cranfield University, UK
( Formerly Director of Technology
WS Atkins Consultants, UK )
ASRANET / FENET / IStructE joint meeting on
Computational Mechanics in Structural Safety Risk and Reliability
June 2003Concluding Remarks
how should we respond?where are we going…...?
With acknowledgements to ASRANET and FENET colleagues!
1880 - energy methods
1960's - special purpose programs – hardware limited
1970's - large scale general purpose analysis codes
1980's - non-linear optimisation
error measures probabilistic methods
1990's - incorporation into CAE, adaptivity, 'meshless’ f.e.a.Evolutionof Analysis methods in industry
Element technology (shell elements!)
(Can we fit it on the computer and if so will it solve in a sensible time)?Typical 70’s issues
Numerical analysis capability now exceeds our ability to make effective use of it?
C B I CProgress
Longer time frames
More holistic approachesMarket pressures
Life extension c.f. new build
Assessment of existing structures
Ultimate strength analyses
Commercial risk assessment
Treatment of uncertainty
Decision makingEnsuing business/technical issues
Optimisation and decision making
Validation and Q A
Knowledge dissemination and retentionPrincipal Current Issues
Optimisation wrt to social, commercial and economic issues
decision making (under uncertainty)
cultural, human and organisational issuesIntegration of analysis into business processes
poorly defined phenomena
Stats/probability is not the complete answer
life extension geriatric structures
Safety margins?Safety qualification
Controlling human error
Standards and Q AConfidence
Education and training
Don’t forget managers needs!
Legacy knowledge and experienceTechnology transfer
Integration - Broaden horizons!
Safety Qualification - Recognise uncertainty
Watch for CBIC!
Confidence - still immature
Technology transfer - more attention to “managers” needsKey messages