Nigel Knowles Visiting Professor Cranfield University, UK ( Formerly Director of Technology WS Atkins Consultants, UK ) presented at ASRANET / FENET / IStructE joint meeting on Computational Mechanics in Structural Safety Risk and Reliability June 2003. Concluding Remarks. 6.
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Cranfield University, UK
( Formerly Director of Technology
WS Atkins Consultants, UK )
ASRANET / FENET / IStructE joint meeting on
Computational Mechanics in Structural Safety Risk and Reliability
Industry drivers and related issues
how should we respond?
With acknowledgements to ASRANET and FENET colleagues!
pre 1880- 'rules of thumb'
1880- energy methods
1960's- special purpose programs – hardware limited
1970's- large scale general purpose analysis codes
1980's- non-linear optimisation
error measures probabilistic methods
1990's- incorporation into CAE, adaptivity, 'meshless’ f.e.a.
Element technology (shell elements!)
(Can we fit it on the computer and if so will it solve in a sensible time)?
Numerical analysis capability now exceeds our ability to make effective use of it?
C B I C
Time to market
Longer time frames
More holistic approaches
Whole life management and costing
Life extension c.f. new build
Assessment of existing structures
Ultimate strength analyses
Commercial risk assessment
Treatment of uncertainty
Integration of analysis into business processes
Optimisation and decision making
Validation and Q A
Knowledge dissemination and retention
Not just a CAD-FE issue!
Optimisation wrt to social, commercial and economic issues
decision making (under uncertainty)
cultural, human and organisational issues
extreme events (fire, crash, hurricane, earthquake etc)
poorly defined phenomena
Stats/probability is not the complete answer
life extension geriatric structures
Validation (“fitness for purpose”)
Controlling human error
Standards and Q A
Education and training
Don’t forget managers needs!
Legacy knowledge and experience
Integration -Broaden horizons!
Safety Qualification -Recognise uncertainty
Watch for CBIC!
Technology transfer-more attention to “managers” needs