Concluding remarks
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Nigel Knowles Visiting Professor Cranfield University, UK ( Formerly Director of Technology WS Atkins Consultants, UK ) presented at ASRANET / FENET / IStructE joint meeting on Computational Mechanics in Structural Safety Risk and Reliability June 2003. Concluding Remarks. 6.

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Concluding Remarks

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Concluding remarks

Nigel Knowles

Visiting Professor

Cranfield University, UK

( Formerly Director of Technology

WS Atkins Consultants, UK )

presented at

ASRANET / FENET / IStructE joint meeting on

Computational Mechanics in Structural Safety Risk and Reliability

June 2003

Concluding Remarks

6


Where are we going

Industry drivers and related issues

technical challenges

how should we respond?

where are we going…...?

With acknowledgements to ASRANET and FENET colleagues!

6


Evolution of analysis methods in industry

pre 1880- 'rules of thumb'

1880- energy methods

1960's- special purpose programs – hardware limited

1970's- large scale general purpose analysis codes

1980's- non-linear optimisation

computer graphics

error measures probabilistic methods

1990's- incorporation into CAE, adaptivity, 'meshless’ f.e.a.

Evolutionof Analysis methods in industry


Typical 70 s issues

Solvers

Element technology (shell elements!)

Post processing

Software verification

Computer resources

(Can we fit it on the computer and if so will it solve in a sensible time)?

Typical 70’s issues


Progress

Moores Law

Numerical analysis capability now exceeds our ability to make effective use of it?

C B I C

Progress


Market pressures

Time to market

Operational efficiency

Globalisation

Environmental concerns

Sustainability

Safety culture

PFI/PPI

Longer time frames

More holistic approaches

Market pressures

6


Ensuing business technical issues

Whole life management and costing

Life extension c.f. new build

Assessment of existing structures

Ultimate strength analyses

Optimisation

Commercial risk assessment

Treatment of uncertainty

Decision making

Ensuing business/technical issues


Principal current issues

Integration of analysis into business processes

Optimisation and decision making

Safety qualification

Extreme events

Confidence

Validation and Q A

Technology transfer

Knowledge dissemination and retention

Principal Current Issues

6


Integration of analysis into business processes

Not just a CAD-FE issue!

Optimisation wrt to social, commercial and economic issues

decision making (under uncertainty)

standard procedures

data

provenance

curacy

legacy

cultural, human and organisational issues

Integration of analysis into business processes

6


Safety qualification

extreme events (fire, crash, hurricane, earthquake etc)

uncertainty handling

poorly defined phenomena

infrequent occurrences

data provenance

Stats/probability is not the complete answer

life extension geriatric structures

Code applicability?

Data

Safety margins?

Safety qualification

6


Confidence

Validation (“fitness for purpose”)

Error minimisation

Controlling human error

Standards and Q A

Confidence

6


Technology transfer

Dissemination

Education and training

Don’t forget managers needs!

Legacy knowledge and experience

Technology transfer

6


Key messages

Integration -Broaden horizons!

Safety Qualification -Recognise uncertainty

Watch for CBIC!

Confidence-still immature

Technology transfer-more attention to “managers” needs

Key messages


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