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Invest in New Bulgaria. Ministry of Economy July 2003. The Competitive Edge of Bulgaria. Strategic geographic location Liberalised access to markets with over 560m consumers (incl. EU, CEFTA, Turkey) Almost 100 agreements on the protection of investments and avoidance of double taxation

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Invest in new bulgaria

Invest in New Bulgaria

Ministry of Economy

July 2003


The competitive edge of bulgaria

The Competitive Edge of Bulgaria

  • Strategic geographic location

  • Liberalised access to markets with over 560m consumers (incl. EU, CEFTA, Turkey)

  • Almost 100 agreements on the protection of investments and avoidance of double taxation

  • Forthcoming NATO and EU membership


Investors in bulgaria will find

Investors in Bulgaria Will Find...

  • Among the lowest costs of doing business in Europe

  • Robust legal framework focused on attracting and protecting foreign investment

  • Fast improving business climate

    • among the lowest taxes in Europe

    • significant reduction in regulatory obstacles and start up costs

    • aggressive business stimulus package introduced in 2002/2003

  • Institutional support for major foreign investment projects

  • Superb academic and vocational training

  • Excellent labour quality/labour cost ratio

    • average monthly salary of EUR144


Significant business climate improvements

Significant Business Climate Improvements

  • Simplified licensing, permit and registration regimes

    • simplification or abolishment of more than 50% of the existing ones; clarification of remaining regimes

    • new regimes to be imposed solely by Parliament vote

  • Ambitiouseconomic programme stimulating the economy

    • 0% profit tax in over 1/3 of the territory of the country

    • pending creation of industrial zones with significant investment incentives

    • VAT-free imports for investment projects over EUR5m

  • Adoption of International Accounting Standards (IAS)

    • 2003 for financial institutions and public companies

    • 2005 for all other companies


Macroeconomic indicators

Macroeconomic Indicators


Bulgarian economy in early 2003 accelerating growth

Bulgarian Economy in Early 2003:Accelerating Growth

  • Industrial production grew by +23.4% yoy in March and by +9.2% yoy in April. Industrial sales – by +30.4% and +9.6% respectively

  • Exports for the first four months jumped up by impressive +40.4% yoy

  • Unemployment went down to 14.3% in May 2003, a record low level for the last three years

  • Inflation stays at bay: 0.8% for the first five months, 1.5% of the year and deflation of 0.6% is recorded for May


Bulgarian economy in 2002 well on track

Bulgarian Economy in 2002: Well on Track

  • Bulgaria is among the leaders in Europe in economic growth: 6.4% in Q3, 3.4% in Q4, 4.8% for 2002

  • Inflation of 3.8%

  • Unemployment of 16.27%, a drop of 1.63% compared to 2001

  • Record high forex reserves: EUR4.58bn

  • Near record low external public debt: USD8.3bn

  • Robust growth in tourism revenues: 10% compared to 2001

  • Improving current and trade account deficits to GDP ratios


Macroeconomic stability testimony from abroad

Macroeconomic Stability – Testimony from Abroad

  • The Government’s economic program has received positive evaluation. The country’s credit rating has been raised on several occasions. The rating for Bulgaria’s long-term foreign currency currently stands at:

    • BB+ (with stable outlook) according to Standard&Poor’s

    • BB (with positive outlook) by Fitch IBCA

    • Bа2 (with stable outlook) by Moody’s

    • BB+ (with positive outlook) by the Japan Credit Rating Agency

    • more rating upgrades are expected in 2003

  • Support of the international financial institutions

    • the IMF approved a two-year stand-by agreement for SDR250m

    • the World Bank adopted a supporting strategy worth USD750m in total

    • the EBRD launched a USD500m private sector financing program


Second generation of economic reforms 1

Second Generation of Economic Reforms (1)

  • VAT-free imports for investment projects over EUR5m

  • 0% profit tax in high unemployment regions

  • Significant reduction of bureaucracy

    • introduction of one-stop-shop

    • Introduction of “silent consent” approach

    • reduction of licensing regimes

    • new regimes to be imposed solely by Parliament

  • Planned creation of industrial zones with significant investment incentives

  • Planned introduction of 100% yearly depreciation for equipment for priority investment projects


Second generation of economic reforms 2

Second Generation of Economic Reforms (2)

  • The launch of a Private Equity Fund(s) is shortly expected

    • state participation of up to EUR51m (BGN100m)

    • additional investment from the private sector

    • the funds will be invested in equities of developing Bulgarian companies

    • strong competition for the professional management of the Fund: 15 applications

    • 4 candidates selected (TBIF Financial Services BV and Equest Partners Ltd., Copernicus Capital Management SP, GED Capital Development SA, Time Capital Partners and BAC)


Gdp growth by quarters

GDP Growth (by Quarters, %)

Source: CANSTAT, EUROSTAT


Gdp growth

GDP Growth (%)

Source:EBRD, Ministry of Economy


Gross domestic product eur bn

Gross Domestic Product (EUR bn)

Source: Ministry of Finance


Gdp structure by sector

GDP Structure (by Sector, %)

Source: National Statistics Institute


Gdp structure by ownership

GDP Structure (by Ownership, %)

Source: National Statistics Institute


Annual inflation year end 1991 2003e

Annual Inflation (%, Year-End, 1991-2003E)

Source: National Statistics Institute


Inflation year end

Inflation (%, Year-End)

Source: Governmental Sourcesand National Statistics Institute


Unemployment 01 1992 05 2003

Unemployment (%, 01/1992-05/2003)

Source: Employment Agency


Unemployment 01 2001 05 2003

Unemployment (%, 01/2001-05/2003)

Source: Employment Agency


Base benchmark interest rate 01 1998 05 2003

Base (Benchmark) Interest Rate(%, 01/1998-05/2003)

2.96%

Source: Bulgarian National Bank


Base benchmark interest rate year end

Base (Benchmark) Interest Rate(%, Year-End)

Source: Governmental Sources and Bulgarian National Bank


Budget surplus deficit gdp

Budget Surplus/Deficit (% GDP)

Bulgaria

CEE Countries (2002)

Source: Governmental Sources and Ministry of Finance


Foreign exchange reserves eur m 1998 2002

Foreign Exchange Reserves (EUR m, 1998-2002)

Source: Bulgarian National Bank


Foreign debt usd m 1996 2002

Foreign Debt (USD m, 1996-2002)

Source: Bulgarian National Bank


Government debt gdp 1997 2002

Government Debt (% GDP, 1997-2002)

110%

105.1%

100%

90%

86.7%

83.2%

77.1%

80%

70.1%

70%

Maastricht criterion

60%

56%

50%

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

Source: Ministry of Finance


Average monthly salary eur 01 2000 03 2003

Average Monthly Salary (EUR, 01/2000-03/2003)

Source: National Statistics Institute


Gross monthly salary levels usd

Gross Monthly Salary Levels (USD)

Low average

High average

Source: AIMS Human Capital Bulgaria (2002)


Gross monthly salary levels usd1

Gross Monthly Salary Levels (USD)

Low average

High average

Source: AIMS Human Capital Bulgaria


Gross capital formation gdp 1996 2002

Gross Capital Formation (% GDP, 1996-2002)

Source: National Statistics Institute


Gross capital formation bgn bn 1997 2002

Gross Capital Formation (BGN bn, 1997-2002)

Gross Capital Formation (BGN bn, 1997-2002)

Source: National Statistics Institute


Macroeconomic indicators 1

Macroeconomic Indicators (1)

Source: Ministry of Finance


Macroeconomic indicators 2

Macroeconomic Indicators (2)

Source: Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Economy and Bulgarian National Bank


Taxation

Taxation


Among the lowest taxes in europe

Among the Lowest Taxes in Europe

  • Corporate tax

    • 23.5%

    • 0% in regions with high unemployment, 1/3 of the country’s territory

    • fast depreciation rates: 2 years for computers, 3 1/3 years for equipment

  • Personal income tax

    • highest rate at 29%

    • rates of 0, 15, 22, 26 and 29% (year 2003)

  • Capital gains tax: 0%

  • Interest income tax: 0%


0 corporate profit tax in 2003 green regions

0% Corporate Profit Tax in 2003 (Green Regions)

N.B.The list is solely based on unemployment figures

The regions include industrial sites with developed infrastructure


Tax and accounting reform

Tax and Accounting Reform

  • Adoption of International Accounting Standards (IAS) from 2003 for financial institutions and public companies and from 2005 for all other companies

  • Introduction of 100% yearly depreciation for equipment for priority investment projects

  • Creation of a single State Revenues Agency

  • Value added tax (VAT)

    • exemption for imports for investment projects over EUR5m

    • general tax refund time falls from 4 to 3 months

    • 45 days refund for export-oriented companies

    • exemption for software exports

    • registration threshold falls to BGN50,000 from BGN75,000


Personal income tax rates brackets 1999 2005

Personal Income Tax Rates/Brackets(%, 1999-2005)

Source: Ministry of Finance


Market access foreign trade

Market Access & Foreign Trade


Preferential market access 1

Preferential Market Access (1)

  • WTO membership since 1996

  • European Union Association Agreement

  • EFTA Agreement

  • CEFTA membership

  • Free Trade Area with Turkey, Macedonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Israel, and Estonia

  • Sighed Free Trade Agreement with Albania

  • Pending signature of a Free Trade Agreement with Moldova, Bosnia & Herzegovina, and Serbia & Montenegro


Preferential market access 2

Preferential Market Access (2)

Free Trade Agreement With:

  • European Union

  • EFTA

  • CEFTA

  • Others

    Pending FTAs:

  • Bosnia & Herzegovina

  • Serbia & Montenegro

  • Moldova


Exports by region 1995 2002

Exports (by Region, %, 1995-2002)

Source: National Statistics Institute


Imports by region 1995 2002

Imports (by Region, %, 1995-2002)

Source: National Statistics Institute


Exports by country 1999 2002

Exports (by Country, %, 1999-2002)

Source: National Statistics Institute


Bulgarian export growth 1996 2002

Bulgarian Export Growth (%, 1996-2002)

Source: Bulgarian National Bank


Bulgarian exports by commodity groups 200 2

Bulgarian Exports(by Commodity Groups, 2002)

Source: National Statistics Institute


Bulgarian imports by commodity groups 200 2

Bulgarian Imports(by Commodity Groups, 2002)

Source: National Statistics Institute


Current and trade account deficit surplus gdp

Current and Trade Account Deficit/Surplus(% GDP)

Bulgaria

CEE Countries (2002)

Source: Governmental Sources and Bulgarian National Bank


Foreign trade with the european union usd bn 2001 2005 f

Foreign Trade with the European Union(USD bn, 2001-2005F)


Foreign trade projections up to 2005

Foreign Trade Projections Up to 2005

  • Improving trade balance

    • trade deficit to drop from USD1.3 m in 2001 to USD0.9 m

  • Exports will continue to grow, reaching a 29% increase compared to 2002

  • Imports will continue to grow, reaching a 14% increase compared to 2002

  • Exports/imports ratio will increase to 0.82 (from a current value of 0.74)

  • No major changes in commodity groups’ relative shares of exports and imports


Fdi and business climate

FDI and Business Climate


Foreign direct investment usd m 1992 2002

Foreign Direct Investment(USD m, 1992-2002)

Source: Bulgarian Foreign Investment Agency


Inflow of foreign investment by sector and usd m 1998 2002

Inflow of Foreign Investment (by Sector, % and USD m, 1998-2002)

Source: Bulgarian Foreign Investment Agency


Inflow of foreign investment by country usd m 1992 2002

Inflow of Foreign Investment by Country(USD m, 1992-2002)

Source: Bulgarian Foreign Investment Agency


Privatisation 1

Privatisation (1)

  • Privatisation Law

    • completely new law embodying new philosophy

    • state-owned stakes in some 1,600 enterprises are declared open for privatisation

    • no preferences for employee-management buyouts

    • limited deferred payments

    • concentration of privatisation process in a specialised body-the Privatisation Agency

    • new Post-Privatisation Control Agency


Privatisation 2

Privatisation (2)

  • Privatisation achievements (2002)

    • Biochim Bank

    • DZI (insurance)

  • Privatisation achievements (2003)

    • DSK Bank

    • 12.8% Bulgartabacon the stock exchange

  • Forthcoming major deals (2003)

    • BTC (telecommunications)

    • Electricity distribution companies

    • Bulgartabac


Privatisation revenues eur m 1997 2002

Privatisation Revenues(EUR m, 1997-2002)

Source: Privatisation Agency


Business climate and reduction of bureaucracy 1

Business Climate and Reduction ofBureaucracy (1)

  • In June 2003, the Parliament approved the removal of 20.5% (c. 74 out of 360) of the existing licensing, permit and registration regimes, and for the simplification of another 33% (c. 120 out of 360) of them

  • About half of the changes have already been implemented

  • A new Law on Administrative regulation and control of commercial activity became in law in June 2003 establishing the new registration and permit regimes and reducing the bureaucracy in the business environment


Business climate and reduction of bureaucracy 2

Business Climate and Reduction ofBureaucracy (2)

  • An upsweep in the activity of the courts with regard to companies

  • According to Transparency International data, in the period 1998-2001 Bulgaria has moved from the 66th to the 47th place in the list based on the international index of corruption perceptions


International corruption indicators

*

International Corruption Indicators

Transparency International Index

* Higher figures show improvement

WEF Corruption Subindex Ranking

Source: Transparency International,

World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Report 2002-2003


Education

Education

  • Bulgaria’s secondary education is among the best in the world in recent years: 5th in the world in sciences, 11th in mathematics in late 90s

  • Bulgarians rank second in international IQ tests (MENSA International)

  • Bulgarians are among the top university students worldwide (2nd in the world in SAT scores)

  • Many students abroad

  • A top-quality MBA (Master of Business Administration) program started in 2003


It certified professionals top 10 countries in of population

IT Certified Professionals(Top 10 Countries in % of Population)

Source:Global IT IQ Report of March 2002 of Brainbench, Inc.The data for the population is taken from the mid-2001 estimates ofU.S. Census Bureau, International Database and The World Factbook,2000


Electronics electrical engineering

Electronics & Electrical Engineering

  • Strategic sector with priority in long-term development programs

  • Potential for more than 200 enterprises with possible specialisation in:

    • Electrical engineering, Computer and office facilities, Electronics, Radio engineering and communication equipment, Household appliances, Defense industry

Source: Bulgarian Foreign Investment Agency


It and telecoms

IT and Telecoms

  • Cross-point for telecommunications traffic from Europe to the Middle East and Asia

  • Regulatory framework harmonized with EU standards

  • By rate of development in 2000, Bulgarian market for mobile telephone services ranked 5th among CEE countries; over 2m mobile phone subscribers

  • Telephone switch exchange manufacturing presents another opportunity

Source: Bulgarian Foreign Investment Agency


Energy

Energy

Investments expected until 2005 USD2.5-5.8bn

  • Stable legal and regulatory framework harmonized with EU standards

  • Positioning of Bulgaria as a reliable country for the provision of future transit of oil, natural gas and electric power and as a dispatching and market center in the region

  • Introduction of clear and sustainable market rules and a clear schedule for the opening of the internal and external energy market to competition

  • Infrastructure projects expected to form the major investment inflow and contribute most to economic growth

  • Power generation and distribution companies offered for sale


Transport and logistics

Transport and Logistics

  • Strategic geographic location

  • Infrastructure comprising more than 37,000 km road, including 416 km highways

  • 6,500 km railways, more than 64% electrified

  • Two main ports, servicing over 60% of foreign trade

  • The Danube River and the Black Sea as international water roads

  • Five international airports

Source: Bulgarian Foreign Investment Agency


Leisure

Leisure

  • Established holiday destination for Germans, Scandinavians, British and East Europeans

  • 2.993m tourists for 2002

  • USD1.2bn revenues in 2001, USD1.334bn in 2002

  • Bulgaria is one of the few European destinations with strong growth in tourism in 2002

  • Wide range of products: Beach/Recreation, Winter Sports, Spa/Health, Culture/Museum/Monasteries, Nature/Activity, Touring, Conference

Source: Bulgarian Foreign Investment Agency


Textile and clothing

Textile and Clothing

  • One of the oldest and fastest developing sectors

  • Some 3,000 enterprises, accounting for 22% of exports

  • Opportunity for productivity gains by investment in modern equipment

  • Main partners and consumers include Germany, France, Italy, Belgium, USA, Canada and the Scandinavian countries

Source: Bulgarian Foreign Investment Agency


Food processing and beverage industry

Food Processing and Beverage Industry

  • Excellent climate and natural conditions

  • Established traditions

  • Famous for organic food production

  • EU support program, SAPARD, extending EUR52m per year for 2001-2006

  • Up to 50% investment subsidy provided for private investment projects to Bulgarian registered companies, incl. with foreign participation

Source: Bulgarian Foreign Investment Agency


Customs regulations

Customs Regulations

  • Customs Act harmonized with the EU Customs Code

  • Inward processing preferences without or with limited collateral

  • Option for local custom office for major industrial companies

  • Option for simplified export/import customs declaration procedures

  • Option for inward processing under customs control


Tourism sector

Tourism Sector


International tourism balance of payments m usd 1998 2002

International Tourism, Balance of Payments (m USD, 1998-2002)

Source: Bulgarian National Bank


International tourist arrivals thousand people 1998 2002

International Tourist Arrivals(ThousandPeople*, 1998-2002)

*Excl. Children Without Own Passports)

Source: Ministry of Economy


Top 20 countries for international arrivals number of people 1998 2002

Top 20 Countries for International Arrivals(Number of People, 1998-2002)

No.CountriesTOTALTOURISMVFR**BUSINESSOTHERTRANSIT

TOTAL55629172992590239981801382365502129641

1MACEDONIA*848849621875242208415874208774

2YUGOSLAVIA* 840881534822683454914286286541

3 GERMANY 562239480460218914874528359433

4GREECE 486750391386793230911387957601

5UNITED KINGDOM 124382110902649913210262673

6RUSSIA1295989938916368171162954107

7ROMANIA* 57152592826434651617810 453939

8ISRAEL 67974640643932973115429

9SWEDEN613325489835014751764433

10POLAND102106487383322703363546698

11CZECH REP. 129945484852522524377374911

12SLOVAKIA 14504942452901059273098718

13UKRAINE958203942678735123410317992

14FINLAND39293381087762668414

15DENMARK35794316287712944682327

16FRANCE432383098365971565943846

17TURKEY5812912964564942459458171462387

18BELGIUM4527929076193259727913134

19U.S.A. 3915325417123677808763844

20AUSTRIA58805243586116239229525302

*Including "Shuttle trade"

**VFR - Visiting friends and relatives


International tourist arrivals thousand people 2001 2005p

International Tourist Arrivals (ThousandPeople, 2001-2005P)

Source: Ministry of Economy


International tourism receipts m usd 2003p 2005p

International Tourism Receipts (m USD, 2003P-2005P)

Source: Ministry of Economy


Financial sector

Financial Sector


Bulgaria currency board arrangement

Bulgaria – Currency Board Arrangement

  • BGN1 = DEM1 = EUR0.5113

  • Long-term goal for EU membership, the anchor currency being the Euro

    • The share of the Euro in the external trade is constantly increasing

    • The EU is by far the leading trade partner of Bulgaria

    • The CBA helps curb inflation –a step towards meeting the Economic and Monetary Union criteria

  • No indications that Bulgaria should exit the CBA


Banking sector overview 1

Banking Sector Overview (1)

  • Total banking sector assets account for 41% of GDP

  • Over 80% of the assets in the banking sector are in private hands

  • Over 80% foreign share of total bank assets

  • Following the privatisation of DSK (the State Savings Bank), the banking sector is almost completely privately owned


Banking sector overview 2

Banking Sector Overview (2)

  • 45% yoy increase in banking system assets in 2002

  • High levels of capital adequacy and liquidity (by 2002)

    • 25.2% total capital adequacy

    • 11.2% primary liquidity (percentage of deposits)


Commercial banks assets deposits and loans bgn bn 01 1998 02 2003

15.4

9.4

6.4

Commercial Banks Assets, Deposits and Loans (BGN bn, 01/1998-02/2003)

Source: Bulgarian National Bank


Commercial banks credits to non government bgn bn 01 1998 02 2003

6.4

Commercial Banks Credits to Non-Government (BGN bn, 01/1998-02/2003)

Source: Bulgarian National Bank


Commercial banks deposits and credits as of total assets 01 1998 02 2003

60.7%

41.9%

Commercial Banks Deposits and Credits as % of Total Assets (01/1998-02/2003)

Source: Bulgarian National Bank


Commercial banks non performing loans as of total loans 01 1998 09 2002

3.34

Commercial Banks Non-performing Loansas % of Total Loans (01/1998-09/2002)

Source: Bulgarian National Bank


Commercial banks total loans bgn bn 01 1998 09 2002

9.512

Commercial Banks Total Loans (BGN bn 01/1998-09/2002)

Source: Bulgarian National Bank


Banking system financial result bgn m 01 1998 02 2003

545

Banking System Financial Result(BGN m, 01/1998-02/2003)

Source: Bulgarian National Bank


Capital adequacy

26.84

Capital Adequacy (%)

Source: Bulgarian National Bank


Loan deposit interest rate spread 01 1998 02 2003

6.64

Loan-Deposit Interest Rate Spread(%, 01/1998-02/2003)

Source: Bulgarian National Bank


Steady growth of m2 and quasi money bgn bn 01 1998 02 2003

13.4

8.2

Steady Growth of M2 and Quasi-Money(BGN bn, 01/1998-02/2003)

Source: Bulgarian National Bank


Capital markets 1

Capital Markets (1)

  • Bulgarian Stock Exchange – Sofia

    • Doubled turnover in 2002 against the previous year

    • The stock exchange index (SOFIX) increased by 270% since the June 2001 parliamentary elections

  • Radical measures for the protection of minority shareholders’ rights

  • A new Privatisation Law which sets a new era in Bulgarian privatization by radically improving the transparency, speed and economic effectiveness of the deals concluded


Capital markets 2

Capital Markets (2)

  • International Accounting Standards (IAS)

    • 2003 for financial institutions and public companies

    • 2005 for all other companies

  • A new Law on Deals in Compensatory Instruments

  • Major changes have been made to the Securities Law

  • A list has been approved comprising c. 1,084 companies with state participation in the capital ownership, for the privatisation of which payment through different kinds of vouchers (non-cash instruments) is allowed. The shares of 95 of these companies are to be traded on the stock exchange


Bulgarian stock exchange sofia sofix index 23 10 2000 10 06 2003

260.9

+270%

- 29%

Bulgarian Stock Exchange - Sofia (SOFIX Index, 23/10/2000-10/06/2003)

Source: Bulgarian Stock Exchange


Brady bonds

Brady Bonds


Brady bond exchanges parameters

Brady Bond Exchanges: Parameters

  • March 2002: Bulgaria exchanged USD1,326 m of Brady bonds into a new USD512 m Eurobond with a coupon of 8.25% maturing in 2015 and a new EUR836m Eurobond with a coupon of 7.5% maturing in 2013

  • September 2002: Bulgaria exchanged USD888 m of Brady bonds for an increase of USD759 m in the 2015 Eurobond


Brady bond exchanges effects on external public debt

Brady Bond Exchanges:Effects on External Public Debt

  • Decrease in debt face value by USD186 m

  • Release of USD340 m of collateral

  • Lengthening of the average maturity by 4 years

  • Decrease of debt service payments over next 10 years by around USD1.1 bn

  • NPV saving of USD126 m


Bulgaria s spreads investment grade league

Investment grade countries orcountries with split ratings

Bulgaria’s Spreads: Investment Grade League

Eurobond spreads


Bulgarian institutions on the internet

Bulgarian Institutions on the Internet

  • Bulgarian state institutions in the field of economics activity:

    • Ministry of Economy: www.mi.government.bg

    • Ministry of Transport and Telecommunications: www.mtc.government.bg

    • Privatisation Agency:www.priv.government.bg

    • Bulgarian Trade Promotion Agency:www.bepc.government.bg

    • Bulgarian Export Insurance Agency:www.baez-bg.com

    • Bulgarian Foreign Investment Agency: www.bfia.org


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