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WHAT HAPPENS WHEN INTERNATIONAL MIGRANTS SETTLE ETHNIC GROUP POPULATION TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS FOR UK LOCAL AREAS UNDER

Project AimsTo project the ethnic populations of local areas in the UK over the next 50 yearsTo develop estimates of the inputs to the projection for the current decade Presentation OutlineTo explain the model design being developed (Phil Rees)State space of modelAccounting frameworkMode

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WHAT HAPPENS WHEN INTERNATIONAL MIGRANTS SETTLE ETHNIC GROUP POPULATION TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS FOR UK LOCAL AREAS UNDER

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    1. WHAT HAPPENS WHEN INTERNATIONAL MIGRANTS SETTLE? ETHNIC GROUP POPULATION TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS FOR UK LOCAL AREAS UNDER ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS Phil Rees, Paul Norman and Peter Boden (Leeds) UPTAP Workshop 2008 University of Leeds, 18-19 March 2008 Wednesday 19 March 1530-1600 ESRC Research Award RES-165-25-0032

    2. Project Aims To project the ethnic populations of local areas in the UK over the next 50 years To develop estimates of the inputs to the projection for the current decade Presentation Outline To explain the model design being developed (Phil Rees) State space of model Accounting framework Model structure Internal migration model Ethnic mortality estimation (Phil Rees) Ethnic fertility estimation (Paul Norman) New Migrant Databank (Pete Boden)

    6. Population accounting framework for countries and local authorities

    8. Internal migration model Something between a rock (saturated) O432 D432 E18 S2 A102 and a hard place (independence) O432 + D432 + E18 + S2 +A102 such as A102S2 + O432D432E7 + E18 age-sex + origin-age, origin-destination-broad ethnicity + detailed ethnicity

    9. Ethnic mortality: proposed estimation method LA life tables and LA SMRs for whole population 2001 Census SIRS for whole population Compute SMR = ac + bc SIR for c=England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland LAs 2001 Census SIRs for ethnic groups for Las 2001 ethnic SMRe = ac + bc SIRe dea (1) = d*a SMRe /100 dea (2) = dea (1) × [D*a /Se dea (1)Pea ]

    14. International Migration

    15. Context: Complexity

    16. Context: Uncertainty

    17. Context: Conceptual differences

    18. Context: Alternative sources

    19. Context: ONS developments Improving Migration and Population Statistics (IMPS) project NSQR of international migration improving both the estimation of total migration flows to and from the UK, improving the allocation of international migration to local areas. Short-term migration estimates Evaluation of alternative administrative sources

    20. This Research Project: Objectives International Migration estimates for the new Ethnic Population projection model New Migrant Databank (NMD) alternative sources local authority level available, accessible data integrated view improved estimation (level & distribution)

    21. This Research Project: Data Sources Census Total International Migration (TIM) International Passenger Survey (IPS) National Insurance Number (NINo) statistics Workers Registration Scheme (WRS) GP Registrations (Flag 4) Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) National Pupil Database (NPD) Labour Force Survey (LFS)

    22. This Research Project: Progress

    23. We have been working on/will work on: Model design/program writing Initial database/completion and harmonisation Ethnic mortality/full implementation New migrant database/integration and synthesis Ethnic fertility/use of GHS and LS

    24. End

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