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Update on Asian Studies Related to Emissions and Modeling. Gregory R. Carmichael Department of Chemical & Biochemical Engineering Center for Global & Regional Environmental Research and the University of Iowa. Topics Reported. Recent advances in emissions estimates

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Update on Asian Studies Related to Emissions and Modeling

Gregory R. Carmichael

Department of Chemical & Biochemical Engineering

Center for Global & Regional Environmental Research and the

University of Iowa


Topics reported
Topics Reported

  • Recent advances in emissions estimates

  • Long-term sulfur deposition calculation

  • Update on model intercomparison study

  • Completed passive sampler pilot project


The TRACE-P/Ace-Asia emission inventory shows the important sources of each type of air pollutant in Asia


Seasonality of emissions of the different species has been studied for china
Seasonality of emissions of the different species has been studied for China

Mainly evaporation-

related species

Mainly combustion-

related species


This is an example of trace p so 2 emissions at 30 sec resolution for the pearl river delta
This is an example of TRACE-P SO studied for China2 emissions at 30 sec. resolution for the Pearl River Delta

Boxed area ~ 150 km x 150 km

Guangzhou

Zhongshan

Shenzhen

Macau/Zhuhai

Hong Kong

30 sec = ~ 0.7 km


Biomass burning treatment combines country survey data with AVHRR analysis to give long-term average or “typical” burning amounts


Comparison of country surveys with various AVHRR fire-count adjustments reveals problem areas for further investigation

Xinjiang

Mongolia

fire count > country surveys

India

fire count < country surveys

Vietnam

Indonesia

It remains difficult to make the link

between satellite observations

of fire and atmospheric emissions



Uncertainty analysis has revealed wide differences by Regionin our knowledge of the emissions of particularspecies in particular parts of Asia …


Distribution of Percent Primary Non-carbonaceous by Region

PM2.5 Emissions --How to distinguish from dust?


Pink – DUST by Region; Brown-Blue BC


E90 by Region

E120

E150

Rishiri

Tarukawa

Sado

Harbin

Beijing

Tsukuba

Hachijo

N30

Qingdao

Shanghai

Ogasawara

Nagasaki

& Fukue

Okinawa

Fukuoka

Amami

E.Q.


We have analyzed sulfur deposition in Asia over last 25 yrs by Region

SULFUR EMISSIONS IN ASIA ARE CHANGING, REGION BY REGION, IN DIFFERENT WAYS


Uncertainty in the Source-Receptor Relationships by Region

Interannual Variability (10-yrs)


Effect of Interannual Meteorological Variability by Region

on Sulfur Deposition can be Much Larger than

Changes in Emissions!

Is there climate feedback link?


How Robust Are The Source-Receptor Relationships? by Region

  • Need to assess inter-model variability.

  • The MICS-ASIA Study: Model InterComparison

  • of Long-Range Transport and Sulfur Deposition in

  • EastAsia

Many different models with important similarities and differences:Lagrangian, Eulerian, Hybrid, etc.


Participant(s) by Region

Organization

Model name

Model type

Main model focus

S.-B. Kim,

T.-Y. Lee,

K-Y. Ma

Dept of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University, Seoul (Korea)

YU-SADM

(Yonsei Univ.-Sulfur Acid Dep. Model)

3D Eulerian

Long-term period or episodic estimation of sulfur sources contributions

H. Hayami,

Y. Ichikawa

CRIEPI (Japan)

CRIEPI trajectory model

Lagrangian

1-layer

Long-term evaluation

H. Hayami,

O. Hertel,

Y. Ichikawa

CRIEPI (Japan) and National Env. Research Institute (Denmark)

ACDEP ASIA

Lagrangian

1-layer

Long-term evaluation

I. Uno,

E.S. Jang

Research Institute for Applied Mech., Kyushu Univ, Fukuoka (Japan)

RIAM version of RAMS on-line tracer model

3D Eulerian

Episodic and long-term simulation for chemical climate studies

Y. Ikeda,

R. Yasuda,

H. Nakaminami

Osaka Prefecture University (Japan)

OPU-Model

(Osaka Prefecture Univ.)

3D Eulerian

Long-term deposition

S.Y. Cho,

G. Carmichael

CGRER, University of Iowa

STEM

3D Eulerian

Episodic and long-term studies

G. Calori,

G. Carmichael

CGRER, University of Iowa

ATMOS-2

Lagrangian

multi-layer

Long-term conc. and depositions of sulfur in Asia. Source-receptor relationships.

M. Engardt

Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute

MATCH

3D Eulerian

Long-term concentrations and depositions of ozone and acidifying substances


Uncertainty in the Source-Receptor Relationships by Region

Inter-model Variability







http://www.cgrer.uiowa.edu/people/carmichael/GURME/GURME.htmlhttp://www.cgrer.uiowa.edu/people/carmichael/GURME/GURME.html


On going activities
On-going Activitieshttp://www.cgrer.uiowa.edu/people/carmichael/GURME/GURME.html

  • Continued needs to improve emission estimates

  • Follow-on activities related to model inter-comparison

  • Interest in expanding base-line measurements – e.g., ABC study

  • Closer linkages between urban/regional/global scales and health,air quality, climate communities

  • WMO-GURME


Analysis Frameworkhttp://www.cgrer.uiowa.edu/people/carmichael/GURME/GURME.html

Climate : Air Quality


Urban Environments are Key Drivers of Changehttp://www.cgrer.uiowa.edu/people/carmichael/GURME/GURME.html


Percentage contribution to total sulfur deposition due to SOhttp://www.cgrer.uiowa.edu/people/carmichael/GURME/GURME.html2

emissions from megacities and major urban centers in Asia,

averaged over the period of 1975-2000


Estimated Source-Receptor Relations for Nitratehttp://www.cgrer.uiowa.edu/people/carmichael/GURME/GURME.html


Propane data from Blake et al.http://www.cgrer.uiowa.edu/people/carmichael/GURME/GURME.html


Biomass burning treatment combines country survey data with AVHRR analysis to give long-term average or “typical” burning amounts

Original two-year daily fire

count data for 1999-2000


Nitrate Deposition is of Growing Importance AVHRR analysis to give long-term average or “typical” burning amounts

% of Total Deposition as Nitrate


Speciation of NMVOC reveals great differences AVHRR analysis to give long-term average or “typical” burning amountsamong countries with different levels ofeconomic development



period. and converted them into appropriate profiles for China for the three different emission layers (both January and July)


Transboundary pollution issues are of growing importance
Transboundary Pollution Issues are of Growing Importance period.

S-Deposition

RAINS-Asia –Carmichael et al., (2001)


Transboundary pollution issues are of growing importance1
Transboundary Pollution Issues are of Growing Importance period.

S-Deposition

RAINS-Asia –Carmichael et al., (2001)





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