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Possible Consequences of an Increase in Tropical Cyclone Intensity on Japanese Port Infrastructure and Operations. Miguel Esteban Research Fellow Kyoto University Japan Lecture as part of the course: Engineering and Policy Responses to Climate Change Impacts on Seaports. Overview.

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Possible Consequences of an Increase in Tropical Cyclone Intensity on Japanese Port Infrastructure and Operations

Miguel Esteban

Research Fellow

Kyoto University

Japan

Lecture as part of the course:

Engineering and Policy Responses to Climate Change Impacts on Seaports


Overview
Overview Intensity on Japanese Port Infrastructure and Operations

1. Brief introduction of myself

2. Introduction to tropical cyclones and how they are affected by climate change

3. Outline of the methodology used to compute increase in size of tropical cyclone

4. Types of damage

4.1. Indirect damage (downtime)

4.2. Direct damage (destruction of infrastructure)

5. Indirect damage and its significance on the economy of Japan

6. Direct damage to breakwaters (effect of sea level rise)

7. Conclusions


General info about myself
General Info about Myself Intensity on Japanese Port Infrastructure and Operations

  • I have two nationalities (British, Spanish)

  • Lived in England (Liverpool, Reading) and Spain, Belgium, Switzerland and Japan (6 years)

  • 1996-2000 - M. Eng. in Civil Eng. (Bristol Uni.)

  • 2001-2004 – Worked as an Engineer

  • 2004-2007 – PhD at Yokohama Uni. (Japan)

  • 2007-2009 – Post-Doc at the United Nations University (Work I will present today)

  • Oct 2009 – Kyoto University (1 week!)


Work coastal engineer
Work –Coastal Engineer Intensity on Japanese Port Infrastructure and Operations

  • 4 Years experience as a Graduate Engineer (2001-2004)

  • JacobsGIBB (International Consultants, Coastal Dept.)

  • High-Point Rendel (Specialist Coastal Engineering Consultants)


Worked also as a tunneling engineer for 2 years
Worked also as a Tunneling Engineer for 2 years Intensity on Japanese Port Infrastructure and Operations


Cern european centre for nuclear research
CERN – European Centre for Nuclear Research Intensity on Japanese Port Infrastructure and Operations

  • Was an underground work inspector building new Caverns for CERN

  • These are the installations shown in the Film Angels & Demons


Doctors degree
Doctors Degree Intensity on Japanese Port Infrastructure and Operations

  • Yokohama National University

  • Supervisor: Prof. Tomoya Shibayama

    “Structural and Financial Risk Assessment of Caisson Breakwaters Against Wind Waves and Tsunami Attack”

  • Methodology:

    • Lab. Experiments,

    • Computer Simulation,

    • Analysis of Real Failures

  • Symposiums & Field Trips:

    • Tanzania, Sri Lanka.


Lab experiments
Lab. Experiments Intensity on Japanese Port Infrastructure and Operations


What are tropical cyclones
What are tropical cyclones? Intensity on Japanese Port Infrastructure and Operations

3 different names:

Hurricanes (America)

Cyclones (Indian Ocean)

Typhoons (Asia-Pacific)

Same physical phenomena

Central eye surrounded by rain bands

  • High winds, low pressure centre, thunderstorms, heavy rain

  • storm surge (e.g. Bangladesh), wind damage, landslides, flooding, high waves

9


How do tropical cyclones originate
How do tropical cyclones originate? Intensity on Japanese Port Infrastructure and Operations

  • Produced by areas of high sea temperatures (hence affected by an increase in surface sea temperature)

  • Primary energy source is the release of the heat of condensation  from water vapour condensing at high altitudes

  • Originate just north or south of equator (they need the Coriolis force to form, and this is not present at equator)

  • (Coriolis force is a force exerted due to the earth’s rotation)


Tropical cyclones in asia
Tropical Cyclones in Asia Intensity on Japanese Port Infrastructure and Operations

Worst affected areas… Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, China, Korea, Bangladesh, India, Vietnam…

Maybe others in future… Iran, Brazil?

11


Rationale
Rationale Intensity on Japanese Port Infrastructure and Operations

One of the fears of global warming is that it could result in an increase in the frequency and intensity of typhoons due to the warming of sea temperature (Nordhaus 2006).

8 of the 10 most costliest natural disasters in Asia (1980-2008) were due to typhoons in Japan (Munich Re.)

Stern Report highlights generally the dangers to the economy

12


Predicting climate change
Predicting Climate Change Intensity on Japanese Port Infrastructure and Operations

  • Predicting the future…

  • How real are our predictions?

  • Are we modern day witches?

13


Knowledge about future and typhoons i
Knowledge about future and typhoons (I) Intensity on Japanese Port Infrastructure and Operations

4th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) States that there is a general agreement that tropical cyclones are likely to increase in intensity, there is yet no consensus on the future frequency of these events.

Typhoons are believed to have a 30-40 year cycle

Strongest typhoons in Western Pacific history

Tip 870 mbar 1979

Gary 872 mbar 1992

Ivan 872 mbar 1997

Joan 872 mbar 1997

Keith 872 mbar 1997

Zeb 872 mbar 1998

June 875 mbar 1975

Ida 877 mbar 1958

Nora 877 mbar 1973

Rita 878 mbar 1978

Yvette 878 mbar 1992

Damrey 878 mbar 2000

CANNOT SAY ANY EVENT UP TO NOW HAS BEEN INFLUENCED BY CLIMATE CHANGE (Katrina had NOTHING to do with Climate Change)


Knowledge about future and typhoons ii
Knowledge about future and typhoons (II) Intensity on Japanese Port Infrastructure and Operations

  • Pielke et al. (2006) “Normalised Hurricane Damage in the United States, 1900-2005”


Knowledge about future and typhoons iii
Knowledge about future and typhoons (III) Intensity on Japanese Port Infrastructure and Operations

Damage is increasing, but we occupy more of the planet each day.

Typhoon formation is influenced by surface sea water temperature (0.7 degrees 20th century)

Simulations by of Knutson and Tuleya (2004). These authors carried out 1300 five-day idealized simulations using a high-resolution version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) R30 hurricane prediction system. Conclusion: typhoons to get stronger.

It is crucial to understand assumptions on which the present model was built

16


Assumptions
Assumptions Intensity on Japanese Port Infrastructure and Operations

  • Tropical cyclone tracks will not change in the future.

  • The frequency and seasonal distribution of tropical cyclones will not change in the future.

  • There is a general relationship between the maximum sustained wind speed and the size of the tropical cyclone.

  • Any wind which is higher than 30 knots (55.56 km/h) will generally lead to a precautionary cessation of many human activities.

  • The topography and population distribution of the target country (in this case Japan) will not change in the future.


Methodology i
Methodology I Intensity on Japanese Port Infrastructure and Operations

  • Monte Carlo Simulation

  • Computer program randomly simulates one full year of typhoons in 2085

  • Maximum wind speed and area are altered


Methodology v change typhoon size
Methodology (V) –Change typhoon size Intensity on Japanese Port Infrastructure and Operations

  • Maximum wind speed and area are altered

  • R1 goes to R2

  • (R30=30 knot radius)

  • R3 goes to R4

  • (R50=50 knot radius)

19


Methodology iii expected increase in wind intensity
Methodology (III) – Expected increase in wind intensity Intensity on Japanese Port Infrastructure and Operations

Knutson and Tuleya (2004) give probability distribution functions of typhoon intensity in 2085

Basically we change the size of historical typhoons according to the shift in the probability distribution function


Method iv probability distributions of wind in 2085
Method. IV - Probability Intensity on Japanese Port Infrastructure and OperationsDistributions of Wind in 2085

If maximum winds are stronger (at the centre) typhoon is usually bigger

R30 = 46.744 + 2.168 Wmax

R50 = - 81.345 + 2.099 Wmax

  • Not well understood

  • Rx= bo + b1Wmax

  • Two scenarios

    • A: low correlation (b1 =1)

    • B: expected correlation (b1 =2)


Types of typhoon damage
Types of Typhoon Damage Intensity on Japanese Port Infrastructure and Operations

  • Direct Damage: Physical destruction caused by the typhoons (e.g. houses destroyed, consequences of floods, etc)

  • Indirect Damage: Time Loss during the passage of a typhoon (factories have to close, workers stay at home, provisional measures put in place, etc).


The importance of wind speeds
The importance of wind speeds Intensity on Japanese Port Infrastructure and Operations

  • Assume that wind speed of 30 knots or higher leads to the precautionary stop of many human activities

  • Ports, airports, trains, etc

  • Map illustrates the affected area for the life of typhoon Tokage (2004)

23


Port downtime why is it important
Port Downtime... Why is it important? Intensity on Japanese Port Infrastructure and Operations

  • PORT DOWNTIME: number of hours that a port has to close due to high winds

  • This downtime causes disruption to the economy of a country (time is money)

  • The Port Designer’s Handbook recommends limits for oil tankers of

    • between 20 and 30 knots for berthing

    • of up to 40 knots for loading and unloading

    • of 55 knots before vessel should leave port


Indirect damage port downtime in japan
Indirect Damage: Port Downtime in Japan Intensity on Japanese Port Infrastructure and Operations

  • Typhoons will become bigger and hence port downtime will increase

  • More “typhoon grade” storms will reach Japan in the future


Seasonal differences in the increase in port downtime
Seasonal differences in the Increase in Port Downtime Intensity on Japanese Port Infrastructure and Operations

PORT OF NAHA (OKINAWA)

PORT OF YOKOHAMA


Relation between gdp and rpcs
Relation between GDP and RPCS Intensity on Japanese Port Infrastructure and Operations

Growth in RPCS in Japan, 1990 Prices in trillion yen (Ln)

Growth in GDP in Japan, 1990 Prices in trillion yen (Ln)

  • Direct correlation between total capital expenditure in Port Infrastructure (RPCS) and the growth in Japanese GDP (Kawakami and Doi 2004).


Extra required port infrastructure expenditure due to climate change
Extra required Intensity on Japanese Port Infrastructure and OperationsPort Infrastructure Expenditure due to climate change

  • 4 Scenarios, depending on rate of economic growth (1 or 2%) and the relationship between maximum wind speed and typhoon area

  • 30.6 and 127.9 billion additional Yen required to be invested by the year 2085 to compensate against increase in downtime

  • Failure to spend this money could reduce GDP by between 1.5 and 3.4% by 2085.


Expected gdp loss in japan due to downtime in other sectors in the economy
Expected GDP Intensity on Japanese Port Infrastructure and OperationsLoss in Japan due to downtime in OTHER sectors in the economy

  • Japanese GDP could be 0.15% lower in the year 2085 due to downtime caused by 30 mph winds (based on 1990 GDP figures)

  • ~$60 USD per capita per year in current economic terms


Increase in downtime in the philippines
Increase in Downtime in the Philippines Intensity on Japanese Port Infrastructure and Operations

  • In this case the north of the country is mostly affected (Island of Luzon)

  • Luzon concentrates most of the economic activity (Manila is situated in Luzon)


Increase in downtime in taiwan
Increase in Downtime in Taiwan Intensity on Japanese Port Infrastructure and Operations

2085

2009


Direct damage and port infrastructure
Direct Damage and Port Infrastructure Intensity on Japanese Port Infrastructure and Operations

  • Tropical cyclones generate high waves that can destroy port infrastructure

  • The key protective elements in ports are breakwaters

  • Very expensive structures that can be damaged by high wave attack


Design of breakwaters
Design of Breakwaters Intensity on Japanese Port Infrastructure and Operations

  • Breakwaters are designed against an expected type of wave attack.

  • Typically an engineer will find from the historical records the worst type of wave for the last 50 years and design the breakwater accordingly (50 year return period wave).

  • Assumptions:

    • Wave Climate will not change

    • Sea Level will be constant


Overboard is of crucial importance in breakwater design
Overboard is of crucial importance in breakwater design Intensity on Japanese Port Infrastructure and Operations

Concrete Shell

b) Perforated Vertical Breakwater

b) Vertical Breakwater

Sand fill

Inner Chamber

Armour Blocks

d) Armoured Caisson Breakwater

Toe Protection Armour

Foundation Material

  • Overboard: distance from sea level to top of the breakwater

c)Composite Breakwater


Parameters used by the goda formula
Parameters used by the Goda Formula Intensity on Japanese Port Infrastructure and Operations

p1

η*

d

h’

h

pu

p2

p3

Distribution of wave pressure on an upright section of a vertical breakwater

  • Most popular formula to design caisson type breakwaters

  • Overboard parameter is very important

Overboard


Sea level is rising
Sea Level is Rising…. Intensity on Japanese Port Infrastructure and Operations

  • Average sea levels are increasing

  • IPCC quotes rises between 18-59cm (some as high as 0.8m)


Increased probability of failure due to sea level rise
Increased Probability of Failure due to Sea Level Rise Intensity on Japanese Port Infrastructure and Operations

  • A decrease in overboard would result in higher forces exerted by waves on the caisson.

  • Okayasu & Sakai (2006) assumed constant sea level rise during next 40 years.

  • Probability of failure would increase by over 50% (using a reliability design method) by 2050


Economic cost of sea level rise
Economic Cost of Sea Level Rise Intensity on Japanese Port Infrastructure and Operations

  • Cost of building new breakwaters in Japan would increase by between 0.5 and 2.3% as a result of Sea Level Rise

  • A breakwater already constructed cannot be expected to survive its design life (typically 50 years)


But what about an increase in tropical cyclone intensity
But what about an increase in tropical cyclone intensity? Intensity on Japanese Port Infrastructure and Operations

  • Effect of this and sea level rise has still not been investigated

  • Future work for me…

  • It is likely that effect can cause dramatic future damage to breakwaters


Is this the whole picture
Is this the whole picture? Intensity on Japanese Port Infrastructure and Operations

  • Well, not quite…

  • Tropical cyclones follow 30-40 years cycles but we only have satellite since 1978.

  • Records go back to the 19th Century, but quality of data is not so good…

  • We are not sure what will happen with frequency and the paths of typhoons


Typhoon gonu it could have been a big disaster
Typhoon Gonu –It could have been a big disaster- Intensity on Japanese Port Infrastructure and Operations

  • June 5th 2007 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Gonu, the most intense cyclone on record in the Arabian Sea. Winds 260 km/h

  • June 7th made landfall in Iran – downgraded to cyclonic storm ~80 km/hr


But why am i talking about cyclone gonu
But why am I talking about cyclone Gonu? Intensity on Japanese Port Infrastructure and Operations

  • Unprecedented in the 20th Century

  • 19th Century record shows some storms entering Oman Sea (how reliable?)

  • Lack of local experience in dealing with cyclones

  • More common in the future?


Cyclone catarina brazil
Cyclone Catarina –Brazil- Intensity on Japanese Port Infrastructure and Operations

  • First EVER recorded cyclone in the South Atlantic (Category 2)

  • Caused widespread damage

  • Countries that are not used to getting these events suffer more damage.


Summary i
Summary (I) Intensity on Japanese Port Infrastructure and Operations

  • Tropical cyclones are likely to increase in strength in the future.

  • Much is still unknown about these events.

  • 30.6 and 127.9 billion additional Yen required to be invested in port infrastructure in Japan by the year 2085

  • Japanese GDP could be 0.15% lower in the year 2085 due to downtime only


Summary ii
Summary (II) Intensity on Japanese Port Infrastructure and Operations

  • Breakwater damage could increase by up to 50% by 2050 as a result of sea level rise

  • Cost of construction new breakwaters could increase by up to 2.3% to take into account sea level rise only

  • Areas of the world which do not experience tropical cyclones could start to feel them in the future


Thank you… Intensity on Japanese Port Infrastructure and OperationsAny Questions?

Dr Miguel Esteban

[email protected]


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