Greater Mekong Sub-region – Core Environment Programme
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Greater Mekong Sub-region – Core Environment Programme Workshop on Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation in Yunnan and Guangxi Provinces of PR China, Thailand and Vietnam 24-26 February 2009 Hanoi, Vietnam.

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Greater mekong sub region core environment programme

Greater Mekong Sub-region – Core Environment Programme

Workshop on Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation in Yunnan and Guangxi Provinces of PR China, Thailand and Vietnam

24-26 February 2009Hanoi, Vietnam

An Introduction to the Climate Change Explorer Tool:Locally Downscaled GCM Data for Thailand and Vietnam


Greater mekong sub region core environment programme

The Climate Change Explorer Toolhttp://wikiadapt.org/index.php?title=The_Climate_Change_Explorer_Tool


What is the cce tool climate change explorer

What is the CCE tool?Climate Change Explorer

Station-level data for control and future conditions (A: 2046-2065)

Empirical (statistically) downscaled from 8-11 of the 24 IPCC 4AR Global Circulation Models (daily mean temp and rainfall for 10 years)

Model output is for A2 socio-economic scenario


Why cce

Why CCE?

  • Inherent uncertainty in climate models.

  • Can’t say which model is ‘best’.

  • Mean ensemble forecast may give false sense of certainty of range of possible changes

  • GCM projections not very useful for planning adaptation! (especially in SIDS)

  • CCE allows non-expert users to explore the range of uncertainty in science – with the possibility of choosing options that are robust against a range of futures.


Who is the cce for

Who is the CCE for?

  • Today’s user: analysts with some knowledge of climate dynamics and model outputs (not modelers, necessarily)

  • Plans: User targets based on various levels of analysis

    • Rapid screening - is the decision sensitive to the envelope?

    • Thresholds in outcomes - does the mapping of potential futures indicate critical thresholds that motivate a specific adaptation action?

    • Probabilistic analysis of expected outcomes - does the decision depend on the expected distribution of risks? Is there an outcome variable that is critical to the decision (cost-benefit ratio)?


What can you do with the cce tool

What can you do with the CCE tool?

Compare results of the different GCM models for a particular location

Packages this data by generating customized analytical and visualization

Explore climate variables relevant to their adaptation options

Designed to simplify the tasks associated with the extraction, query and analysis of climate information

Allow users to address issues of uncertainty in devising policy and strategies and in implementing actions.


Components of the cce tool

Components of the CCE tool


Data access and specifications

Data Access and Specifications

  • Local (station-scale) response to the large scale forcing as shown on the GCM

  • To include all models with daily archived data from the 4th Assessment Report of the IPCC

  • Updates accessible

  • Currently distributed in daily and monthly time series (monthly means for all models), and derivative statistics

  • Spatially smoothed- reflective of the regional response at each location.


What does the cce do

What does the CCE Do?

Examine seasonal, multi-annual and spread of climate behavior

Import, download, graph, difference the data (look at expected changes)

Compare models to each other

Sort data into seasons and calculate some attributes about


Greater mekong sub region core environment programme

Multi-model Anomalies

4.00

2.00

0.00

-2.00

-4.00

-6.00

Daily rainfall anomaly for Bamako Station, 2045 to 2065

1.40

1.00

-8.00

ECHAM5

Envelope

0.60

0.20

-10.00

0.00

-0.20

-0.60

-12.00

-1.00

-24.00

-18.00

-12.00

-6.00

0.00

6.00

12.00

18.00

24.00

30.00

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Total monthly precipitation anomaly

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

December

  • Examine seasonal, multi-annual and spread of climate behavior

  • Import, download, graph, difference the data (look at expected changes)

  • Look for agreement/ disagreement

GISS

CCCMACGCM

Total monthly precipitation anomaly

Model agreement

Model disagreement


Data available and plans for 2009 http www ipcc data org

Data Available and Plans for 2009http://www.ipcc-data.org/

Data available for 34 weather stations in Thailand and 19 in Vietnam


Training a central goal

Training- a central goal

ToT

Wiki

And others


Thank you www weadapt org

Thank you..www.weADAPT.org


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