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Welcome to the Bay of Fundy MCCAP Workshop . What question about your MCCAP do you most want to gain clarity about today? What municipal decisions are you currently making that will be affected by changes in climate?. Workshop premised on . . .

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Welcome to the Bay of Fundy MCCAP Workshop

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Welcome to the Bay of Fundy

MCCAP Workshop


What question about your MCCAP do you most want to gain clarity about today?

What municipal decisions are you currently making that will be affected by changes in climate?


Workshop premised on . . .

  • Climate change may exacerbate considerable geological risk for future development

  • We can mitigate some of that risk


Assessing Geological Hazards

Geohazards?

4 of 30

Geohazards are events caused by geological features and processes that present severe threats to humans, property and the natural and built environment.

. . . to develop a methodology to incorporate geology

into the land use planning process

Picture from NS DNR Geological Services Division


Assessing Geological Hazards

Geo-events that pose threats

4 of 30

  • coastal flooding and riverine flooding

  • coastal erosion

  • land sinking – sinkholes

  • contamination of water from heavy metals in soil or acid rock drainage

  • landslides / slope failure

. . . to develop a methodology to incorporate geology

into the land use planning process

Picture from NS DNR Geological Services Division


Assessing Geological Hazards

Geo-events that pose threats

4 of 30

How do we realistically handle these geohazards in our MCCAPs?

. . . to develop a methodology to incorporate geology

into the land use planning process

Picture from NS DNR Geological Services Division


2 climate drivers

Sea level rise

Changes in precipitation


BIO’s relative sea level rise estimates

0.4-0.9m on 50-year time scale

0.9-1.6 on 100-year time scale


Example from

County of Colchester / Truro


MSC’s

STORM SURGE MODEL

Tell us the impacts you are seeing and at what water levels!

Model based on OUTPUT WINDS


MSC’s

STORM SURGE MODEL

Map display; every hour for 48 hrs out from when model run

Time series graph; point forecast for specific location. Show stage 1, 2 or 3 flooding based on past events.


MSC’s

STORM SURGE MODEL

Does NOT include wave run up

Add 10% to surge levels

if wind facing shoreline . . .

. . . then add tide level


MSC’s

STORM SURGE MODEL

65cm surge predicted at nearly high tide = 2.9m

75-80 cm surge experienced = so 3m

+ at least another 10cm for wave run up

(more if wind from S/SE)


Observed sea level rise exceeded what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicted by 50% for the period 1990–2006.

80% of the rise in sea level between during 2003–2008 is believed to be from ice melt


0.42 ± 0.15  0.57m

upper uncertainty for relative SLR

So use 0.57m


Water Surplus

Water Deficit

Intensity Short Period Rainfall


  • In a 20 year return period rainfall:

  • 5% more rain by 2020s

  • 9% more by 2050s

  • 16% more by 2080s


Anne Warburton

awarburton@elementalsustainability.com

902 431 7168

www.elementalsustainability.ca


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