Workshop on emissions projections from Annex I Parties Bonn, 6-8 September 2004

1. GHG projections for the energy sector, transport, industry and waste management: Summary of discussion Workshop on emissions projections from Annex I Parties Bonn, 6-8 September 2004

2. Presentations • The following countries made presentations at this session: • Belgium • China • Czech Republic • Latvia • Lithuania • Netherlands • Slovenia • Turkey • United States • The exchange of experience through these presentations and subsequent discussions was very useful and important.

3. Objectives • ‘To discuss methods, assumptions, [etc] and dissemination of methodologies’ • ‘Share and compare’ information through presentations and discussion is key outcome of session • Value to parties is what they themselves take away • Wide range of very complex issues • Projections ‘best practice’ differs from inventory

4. Some key points overall • Transparent presentation of assumptions and data was found to be very important. • For quality GHG projections, clear and sufficient presentation of key assumptions and critical data may be as important as the modelling process itself. • Also useful to vary key assumptions and identify sensitivity of projected emissions • Varying views on ‘GDP’, importance of structural issues

5. Some key points overall • Agreed that projections methodology, choice of models etc ultimately matters for Governments • Discussion of value of ‘common international assumptions’ • Oil prices, carbon prices etc • Issues about: • Who provide data • Timeliness • Whether Govts would welcome constraint • But sharing information useful

6. Stationary combustion • Value of countries consulting with neighbours • especially re common issues • Value of having ‘robust and available’ models discussed • Concerns about whether ‘free’ and costs of adapting/using • Bottom up models seen as easier to translate • Discussion of modelling P&Ms: both endogenous and exogenous approaches used • NM issue again- discussion about whether useful • Many countries focus on WM/WAM for policy choices • Use of Key Source Analysis/Key driver analysis generally supported

7. Stationary combustion • Value of having complete energy balance • Discussion of including international emissions trading in projections • Does not change domestic emissions • But part of analysis of policy choices • For ETS, it may be too early to evaluate impact on emissions • Saudi Arabia: need to model spill-over effects on non-Annex I Parties and ways to have ‘win-win policies

8. B. Transport • Emissions from transport should be shown separately from the emissions of the rest of the energy sector. • Important to model individual transport modes and the selection among modes • Saudi Arabia: emissions taxation in transport => impact on non-Annex I Parties • Bunker fuels: Saudi Arabia = it is premature; Germany = no methodological problems; Belgium: need to have for complete energy balances

9. Industry, waste management • Importance of having data on activity levels and emission factors • Importance of presenting results and assumptions clearly. • F-Gases: rapidly changing industry • Need for ‘reality check’ on projections