Recent s i forecast developments at iri
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Recent S-I Forecast Developments at IRI. Tony Barnston Dave DeWitt Lisa Goddard Donna Lee Mike Tippett Shuhua Li. Real-Time Coupled Models. Running 3 coupled models in real-time with modest ensemble size (12 members) Historical forecasts back to 1982

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Recent S-I Forecast Developments at IRI

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Recent s i forecast developments at iri

Recent S-I Forecast Developments at IRI

Tony Barnston

Dave DeWitt

Lisa Goddard

Donna Lee

Mike Tippett

Shuhua Li


Real time coupled models

Real-Time Coupled Models

Running 3 coupled models in real-time with modest ensemble size (12 members)

Historical forecasts back to 1982

ECHAM4.5- Directly Coupled (ECHAM-DC2)*

ECHAM4.5- Anomaly Coupled (ECHAM-AC1)

ECHAM4.5-GML (forced by CFS forecast in central and eastern Pacific. Thermodynamic ocean elsewhere)

Data is available in IRI Data Library

* = contributed to CHFP. Others could be contributed as well.


1 tier experimental multi model ensemble

1-Tier Experimental Multi-Model Ensemble

Models:

ECHAM-DC2

ECHAM-AC1

ECHAM-GML

NCEP-CFS

Hindcasts from 1982 to present.

Simple pooling MME. Found to be (slightly) superior to Bayesian combination. But still trying to make an objective combination scheme.

Forecasts are available on the web.

Next step is to combine with 1-tier forecasts.


Recent 1 tier mme forecast

Recent 1-Tier MME Forecast


Current 2 tier mme activities

Current 2-Tier MME activities

  • Pattern-based correction of model output.

    • Correct systematic errors.

    • Calibration based on historical forecasts.

      • Observed SST vs. forecast SST.

  • Information beyond terciles

    • Climatology and forecast probability density functions.

  • New methods for weighting models.


Recent s i forecast developments at iri

NDJ temperature variability patterns (EOFs)

Model

Obs.

MOS

1

2


Correlation

correlation

Model

MOS


Recent s i forecast developments at iri

Verification of Most Recent Season Precipitation Forecast

Verification:

G: globe

T: tropics

this (mean

forcst 1997→)

rpss:

G 0.000 (0.008)

T 0.005 (0.015)

likelihood:

G 0.001 (0.004)

T 0.004 (0.008)

Heidke:

G 0.006 (0.042)

T 0.021 (0.068)

GROC:

G 0.537 (0.539)

T 0.572 (0.565)

AMJ

2010

precip

tercile

categ

AMJ

2010

precip

probab

forecast

from

mid-Mar


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