Recent S-I Forecast Developments at IRI. Tony Barnston Dave DeWitt Lisa Goddard Donna Lee Mike Tippett Shuhua Li. Real-Time Coupled Models. Running 3 coupled models in real-time with modest ensemble size (12 members) Historical forecasts back to 1982
Running 3 coupled models in real-time with modest ensemble size (12 members)
Historical forecasts back to 1982
ECHAM4.5- Directly Coupled (ECHAM-DC2)*
ECHAM4.5- Anomaly Coupled (ECHAM-AC1)
ECHAM4.5-GML (forced by CFS forecast in central and eastern Pacific. Thermodynamic ocean elsewhere)
Data is available in IRI Data Library
* = contributed to CHFP. Others could be contributed as well.
Hindcasts from 1982 to present.
Simple pooling MME. Found to be (slightly) superior to Bayesian combination. But still trying to make an objective combination scheme.
Forecasts are available on the web.
Next step is to combine with 1-tier forecasts.
NDJ temperature variability patterns (EOFs)
Verification of Most Recent Season Precipitation Forecast
G 0.000 (0.008)
T 0.005 (0.015)
G 0.001 (0.004)
T 0.004 (0.008)
G 0.006 (0.042)
T 0.021 (0.068)
G 0.537 (0.539)
T 0.572 (0.565)