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How the Stock Market may view Market Consistent Valuations John Hele, Deputy CFO ING Group. Market-consistent Valuation of Insurance Contracts 2nd November 2006. Key points to make. Investors and analysts are not satisfied with current disclosure by insurers

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How the Stock Market may view Market Consistent ValuationsJohn Hele, Deputy CFO ING Group

Market-consistent Valuation of Insurance Contracts

2nd November 2006

key points to make
Key points to make
  • Investors and analysts are not satisfied with current disclosure by insurers
  • EEV has not solved the issue, and perhaps made it worse
  • MCEV is viewed as a positive step toward better valuations
  • Solvency II is also seen as a big positive
  • A fair value balance sheet is viewed by the IASB as the future direction for insurance
basis for conclusions
Basis for Conclusions
  • Research reports:
    • Morgan Stanley “European Insurance – What the Market Thinks” (Sept. 5 2006)
    • Merrill Lynch “European Insurance – EEV-er more complicated” (Sept. 5, 2006)
    • Bear Sterns “European Insurance – Market Consistent or Inconsistent?” (June 12 2006)
    • Fox Pitt Kelton “European Insurance – Solvency II The Invisible Force”
  • Ernst and Young: “European Embedded Value Results” (June 2006)
  • IASB Update – October 2006
investors find reporting opaque
The diversity of answers to

this question may be

illustrative of the general

opacity of reporting in the

insurance sector.

See also the comments in

relation to slide 5.

Investors find reporting Opaque

Which valuation metrics do you find most useful in valuing insurance stocks?

(Participants were allowed three responses)

  • Source: MorganStanley Research
eev reporting has not really helped
EEV Reporting has not really helped

Has ‘European Embedded Value’ reporting improved the transparency

and compatibility of life insurers’ reporting?

One question that we maybe should have (but failed to) include in our survey would have concentrated on investors’ ‘satisfaction’ with the quality of current reporting. If we had asked such a question, we suspect that most investors would have been critical of reporting.

It is against this background that the answers to the questions here should be judged. The majority of respondents believe that EEV has ‘somewhat’ improved reporting – but we do not think that this should be interpreted as investors yet being satisfied with the quality of reporting.

  • Source: MorganStanley Research
eev not the answer
EEV – not the answer
  • European Embedded Value
    • Introduced by CFO Forum to gain better disclosure and comparability of embedded value results by European insurers
    • NPV of statutory book profits less a cost of capital
    • The quantity and quality of disclosure has improved significantly
    • But the comparability of results is still an issue
      • Risk Discount Rates
      • Non financial risks
      • Required Capital and cost of capital
      • Financial Options and Guarantees
      • MCEV
    • Source: E&Y
eev risk discount rates
EEV- Risk Discount Rates
  • Bottom Up Approach
    • Typically using market consistent approaches
    • Or assigning a beta to cash flows of business units or products
  • Top Down Approach
    • WACC

Source: E&Y

eev required capital
EEV- Required Capital
  • Internal model based on risk approaches
    • Economic capital
    • Solvency II type calculations
  • S&P formula model
    • For a targeted rating
  • Minimum EU Solvency I
  • No capital for agency costs
  • A wide range of results
eev fogs
EEV- FOGs

TVOG/PVIF

%

Not disclosed

Not disclosed

10,5%

21,3%

12,1%

16,2%

0,7%

5,9%

3,7%

7,6%

3,6%

7,7%

2,4%

3,0%

2,3%

7,1%

3,2%

8,5%

Standard

Life

CNP

AXA

Aviva

Source: E&Y

Fortis

ING

Swiss Re

Allianz

Skandia

AEGON

Generali

Munich Re

Winterthur

Old Mutual

Friends

Provident

Prudential

Resolution

Legal & General

eev views
EEV - Views
  • ML- “EEV – Frozen in the headlights”
    • “The move to EEV standards turned out to be the antithesis of what it was intended to be…in short we believe the new generation of embedded values has dazed rather than dazzled investors and valuation complexity continues to be a barrier to investing in European insurance stocks.”
  • BS- “EEV Principles have Major Shortcomings”
    • “the major problem that remains is that there is no mechanism to link the embedded value discount rate with the underlying risk profile of the business.”
mcev is viewed as a positive
MCEV is viewed as a positive
  • BS – “MCEV is to become the standard”
    • “there is a growing consensus that MCEV is the only coherent approach”
  • ML – “Expect EVs to move to a market consistent approach”
    • “this will at least give more consistency from company to company. Against this, understanding embedded values and how they work will continue to be a significant challenge”
    • “MCEV tends to give higher FOGs charge but lower COC”
solvency ii is also a positive step
Solvency II is also a positive step
  • FPK “The invisible force”
    • “S II will progressively transform the insurance industry’s economics by having a significant influence on:
      • Corporate strategy
      • Risk appetite
      • Product design
      • Pricing
      • Capital structure
      • Level and volatility of profits”
    • “We think the real power of the regulation is in the increased focus on companies to move towards risk based product pricing and capital deployment”
diversification based on market rates

19,1

Diversification based on market rates

Example: AXA Capital

2,3

International

Insurance

Total Group

Diversification

benefits: -46%

Geographic diversification benefits: -35%

11,2

P&C

1,6

Segment diversification

benefits: -17%

5,7

Life

21,9

15,5

Sum of Economic

Capital of local operations

Sum of Segments’

Economic Capital

AXA Group

Economic Capital

Source: AXA

iasb is converging to market consistency
IASB is converging to market consistency
  • Phase II Accounting – October 2006 Update
    • All insurance liabilities, including non-life, should be discounted
    • Measurement basis for insurance liabilities should be the amount the insurer would expect to pay today if it transferred all of its remaining contractual rights to another entity (‘current exit value’)
    • Measurement of an insurance liability should include an explicit and unbiased estimate of the margin that market participants require for bearing risk
    • …excludes from the liability any cash flows that relate not to the liability itself
    • Discount rates should be consistent with observable market prices for cash flows whose characteristic match those of the insurance liability in terms of timing, currency, and liquidity
    • Current exit value...reflects its credit characteristics
    • An insurer should reflect acquisition costs as an expense not an asset
phase ii accounting the ultimate benefit
Phase II Accounting – the ultimate benefit
  • Once adopted fair value accounting may be very good for the industry
    • Market consistent
    • Comparable
    • Risk based
    • Simple to explain exit values
    • Essentially MCEV anyway
phase ii accounting ultimate work
Phase II Accounting – Ultimate Work
  • To create auditable and SOXed values will be challenging compared to today
    • Fair value (exit value) of liabilities
    • Replicating portfolios to match assets
    • Par contracts
    • Non-life claims
    • Risk margins
    • Analysis of movement
    • Volatility of earnings and capital
  • But will create a better industry
    • And lots of work for market consistent practitioners!!!
key points to make1
Key points to make
  • Investors and analysts are not satisfied with current disclosure by insurers
  • EEV has not solved the issue, and perhaps made it worse
  • MCEV is viewed as a positive step toward better valuations
  • Solvency II is also seen as a big positive
  • A fair value balance sheet is viewed by the IASB as the future direction for insurance
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