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Program Akuntasi Universitas Trisakti. Monetary Policy in Indonesia. Framework of monetary policy in Indonesia. Operational target. Strategic target. Ultimate target. Instruments. Operational target. Intermediate target.

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Program akuntasi universitas trisakti

Program Akuntasi

UniversitasTrisakti

Monetary Policy in Indonesia


Program akuntasi universitas trisakti

Framework of monetary policy in Indonesia

Operational target

Strategic target

Ultimate target

Instruments

Operational

target

Intermediate

target

- OMO - Interest rates (ST) - Interest rates (LT) - Inflation

- Reserve requirement - Base money - M1, M2, kredit (since Act # 23/1999)

- Discount window - Interest rates

- Moral suasion (BI rate)

Nominal

“Anchor”

  • - Exchange rate

  • Monetary variables

  • Inflation (inflation targeting)

  • Nominal output

  • No explicit nominal anchor

Targets


Program akuntasi universitas trisakti

Framework of monetary policy in Indonesia

Kebijakan Moneter dengan Sasaran Tunggal

Sejalan dengan trend di berbagai negara, Indonesia menganut stabilisasi harga sebagai sasaran tunggal kebijakan moneter sebagaimana tercermin dalam Undang-Undang Bank Indonesia yang baru (UU No. 23 tahun 1999 tentang Bank Indonesia – diamandemen UU No. 3 tahun 2004).

TujuanBank Indonesia adalah:

“Mencapai dan memelihara kestabilan nilai rupiah”(Ps. 7)

3 Pilar pencapaian tujuan

Untuk mencapai tujuan tersebut, Bank Indonesia mempunyai tugas: (Ps. 8)

a. Menetapkan dan melaksanakan kebijakan moneter

b. Mengatur dan menjaga kelancaran sistem pembayaran

c. Mangatur dan mengawasi Bank


Program akuntasi universitas trisakti

Framework of monetary policy in Indonesia

Beberapa rezim berkembang dalam teori dengan mendasarkan pada berbagai

channels dalam transmisi moneter dalam perekonomian :

1. Monetary targeting; mendasarkan pada pengendalian uang beredar (sbg.

Intermediate target) dan uang primer (sebagai sasaran operasional) untuk

mencapai sasaran akhir, dengan berdasar kestabilan permintaan uang- sudah dihapuskan sejak Juli 2005.

2. Exchange rate targeting; mendasarkan pada pengendalian nilai tukar (sbg

intermediate target) untuk mencapai sasaran akhir (inflasi dan pertumbuhan)

3. Inflation targeting; memfokuskan sasaran akhir pada target inflasi yang

diumumkan. Untuk intermediate targetnya menggunakan inflation forecast,

yang mendasarkan pada semua channel transmisi moneter. Biasanya

dikombinasikan dengan suku bunga untuk penentuan operating targetnya.

4. Implicit Nominal Anchor (No Anchor). Tidak menetapkan sasaran akhir dan

intermediate tertentu. Tergantung penilaian dan keyakinan boards of

governor. Untuk operating target biasanya menggunakan suku bunga.

 Rezim mana yang tepat tergantung pada kondisi ekonomi dan moneter negara

ybs. Bahkan untuk suatu negara rezim yang diterapkan dapat saja berubah.


Program akuntasi universitas trisakti

Transmission mechanism of monetary operations

SBI

Auction

Interest

Rate

Domestic

Supply

OMO

FASBI

Domestic

Inflation

Pressures

FX

Intervention

Asset

Price

Domestic

Demand

Money

Market

Liquidity

INFLATION

Expectation &

Confidence

Discount

Window

Foreign

Inflation

Pressures

Exchange

Rate

RR

Moral Suasion

Indicators :

- Import

Price Index

Indicators :

- M1, M2

- Bank’s Loan

  • Indicators :

  • - CPI

  • - Underlying

  • Core

  • - Asset Price

  • - Other Price

  • Adm/Non

  • Trade/Non

  • Food/Non

  • Indicative Targets:

  • Bank reserves

Indicators:

- Money Market Rates

- Deposit Rates

- Lending Rates

- IHSG

- Exchange Rates

Indicators:

- Surveys

- Leadings

- Output Gap


Monetary transmission through pricing approach

Monetary transmission through pricing approach

Market interest

rates

Domestic

demand

Domestic

Inflationary

pressure

Asset prices

Total

demand

Official

Rate

(BI rate)

Net external

demand

Inflation

Expectations/

confidence

Import

prices

Exchange rate


Monetary programming

Monetary Programming

  • Supply of money : Ms = mm * Mo

  • Demand for money : Md = f (GDP, CPI)

  • Illustration:

    • Long- term demand for money function (M1):

      • logM1 = constant + 1.1 logGDPr + 1.0 logCPI + error

    • Estimated money multiplier (M1/M0) around 1.2 – 1.4

    • Monetary Program: (Ms = Md)

      • Inflation 8%

      • GDP growth 6%

      • Growth of M1 14.6 %

      • Growth of base money (Mo) 10.4% – 12.2% avg 11.2%

         interest rate target


Inflation targeting in indonesia

Inflation Targeting in Indonesia

  • Sesuai UU No.3/1999 dan UUNo.3/2004

    • Inflasi merupakan “single target” dari kebijakan moneter

    • BI memiliki independensi secara kelembagaan (institutional independent), dan dalam memilih instrumen (instrument independent), sementara sasaran inflasi diumumkan oleh pemerintah setelah berkoordinasi dengan BI

    • Larangan pemberian kredit kepada pemerintah (menghindari fiscal dominance)

  • Kebijakan moneter “forward-looking”

    • Sasaran inflasi ditetapkan akhir tahun sebelumnya atau awal tahun berjalan

    • Sasaran moneter diarahkan untuk mencapai target inflasi

    • BI menggunakan model dalam melakukan forecast inflasi dan makroekonomi lainnya:

      • MODBI: a large scale structural macroeconomic model

      • SOFIE: a medium scale structural macroeconomic model (ECM)

      • GEMBI: a dynamic general equilibium macroeconomic model

      • SSM: a small scale structural macroeconomic model

      • BEER: a behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model

      • Indicator models: reduced forms, VAR for specific issues


Inflation targeting a framework not a rule

Inflation Targeting“A Framework, Not A Rule”

Monetary

operations

Policy

response

Policy

Indicators

Ultimate

target

Monetary

instruments

BI Rate

Inflation

forecast

Inflation

target

+

  • Liquidity management

  • Interest rates corridor

  • Interest rate sstructure

  • Public welfare

  • Trade off between inflation & output Inflasi dan Output

  • Expectation

  • Exchange rate stability

  • Other monetary and banking objectives

Output growth

  • Factors affecting inflation

  • Linkage among macroecon variables

  • Monetary trasmission moneter

+

Coordination with

Government

Model, research, stat,

expert opinion, judgement

Policy

Credibility

  • Policy communication

  • Commitment/Consistency

  • Building expectation


Balance sheets of monetary authority and monetary system monetary survey

Balance sheets of Monetary Authorityand Monetary System (Monetary survey)


Program akuntasi universitas trisakti

PerbandinganSistemOperasiKebijakanMoneter

PENDEKATAN

SISTEM OPERASI

Sasaran

akhir

Sasaran

operasional

Instrumen

Pendekatan Harga

Variabel-variabel Informasi

  • Langsung

  • Sk.bunga PUAB

  • Stabilitas harga

  • Tidak langsung

Sasaran

Sasaran

Sasaran

Pendekatan Kuantitas

Instrumen

Operasional

Antara

Akhir

Langsung

-

Agregat moneter

Stabilitas harga

-

-

Monetary base

Pertumbuhan ekonomi

-

Tidak langsung seperti: seperti:

Kesempatan kerja

. Uang primer/M0

. M1, M2

Keseimbangan NP

. Reserve bank . Kredit pbk

. Sk.bunga

Sumber: Junggun Oh. “Inflation Targeting, Monetary Transmission Mechanism, and Policy Rules in Korea”,

Economic Pap

er

, Vol.2, No.1, March 1999, Bank of Korea (dimodifikasi).


Perbandingan sistem operasi kebijakan moneter

Ms’

Ms*

Ms”

Tingkat Bunga, i

Tingkat Bunga, i

Ms

i”

i”

i*

i*

Target Tingkat Bunga, i*

Md”

i’

Md”

i’

Md*

Md*

Md’

Md’

M’

M*

M*

M”

Kuantitas Uang, M

Kuantitas Uang, M

PerbandinganSistemOperasiKebijakanMoneter

Mekanisme Quantity-based Approach vs Price-based Approach

Sasaran kuantitas uang

Sasaran “harga” uang


Pertimbangan bi beralih ke pendekatan harga

Pertimbangan BI Beralih ke Pendekatan Harga

Quantity-based Approach vs Price-based Approach ?

  • Bank Indonesia mengubah sistem pengendalian moneternya dari quantity-based approach menjadi price-based approach sejak Juli 2005, sejalan dengan penerapan full-fledged inflation targeting framework

    Asumsi yang digunakan dalam Pendekatan Kuantitas adalah sbb:

  • Kebijakan dan perkembangan sektor-sektor lain (fiskal, nilai tukar, dan riil) akan berjalan seperti yang ditetapkan.

  • Adanya hubungan yang stabil antara uang beredar (sebagai sasaran antara) dengan kegiatan ekonomi riil (sebagai sasaran akhir)  stabilitas fungsional income velocity dan demand for money

  • Adanya hubungan yang stabil antara uang primer (sebagai sasaran operasional) dengan uang beredar (sebagai sasaran antara)  stabilitas fungsional angka pengganda uang (money multiplier)


Pertimbangan bi beralih ke pendekatan harga1

Pertimbangan BI BeralihkePendekatanHarga

Quantity-based Approach vs Price-based Approach ?

  • Namun, hasil kajian empiris BI menyimpulkan bahwa:

    • Income velocity, demand for money, dan money multiplier cenderung “kurang” stabil.

    • M0 tidak dapat sepenuhnya dikendalikan oleh Bank Indonesia. Sekitar 70% komponen M0 adalah uang kartal yang merupakan kebutuhan masyarakat akan alat pembayaran.

    • Agregat moneter M1 relatif stabil dibandingkan dengan M2.

      Penyebab Ketidakstabilan Struktural tersebut adalah karena:

  • Pesatnya perkembangan sektor keuangan dan majunya inovasi produk keuangan yang menyebabkan kegiatan penciptaan uang (money creation) oleh sistem keuangan menjadi berlipat ganda.

  • Terjadinya proses decoupling antara sektor moneter dan sektor riil.

  • Sulitnya mengidentifikasi arah kausalitas antara uang beredar dan kegiatan ekonomi. Adanya kecenderungan kegiatan ekonomi mempengaruhi uang beredar, bukan sebaliknya.


Pertimbangan bi beralih ke pendekatan harga2

Pertimbangan BI BeralihkePendekatanHarga

Quantity-based Approach vs Price-based Approach ?

  • Sejalan dengan permasalahan dalam pengendalian moneter dengan menggunakan agregat moneter, paradigma baru yang lebih meyakini “harga” uang, yaitu suku bunga dan nilai tukar, sebagai jalur utama transmisi kebijakan moneter (price targeting) di Indonesia semakin mendapatkan perhatian.

  • Bond (1994) menunjukkan secara empiris bahwa hubungan antara suku bunga dengan laju inflasi jauh lebih kuat dibandingkan dengan hubungan antara uang beredar dengan inflasi.

  • Di sisi lain, dalam ekonomi yang semakin terbuka dengan sistem nilai tukar yang fleksibel, pergerakan nilai tukar rupiah juga dianggap sangat penting dalam mempengaruhi permintaan agregat, pertumbuhan ekonomi, and inflasi.


Monetary operations

How open market operations change monetary conditions?

i

Selling securities

Rb

M1 & M2

Price

Stability

Securities

auction

i

Buying securities

Rb

M1 & M2

Monetary operations

  • Day-to-day monetary operations mostly conducted through open market operations (OMO), while other instruments such as reserve requirement and moral suasion are rarely used.

  • Bank Indonesia sets indicative targets either base money or interest rates (BI rates since July 2005) and conducting OMO by auctioning Bank Indonesia Certificates (SBI) and Government Securities (SUN), intervening in the FX market and open window for deposits facility.

  • BI rate reflects the stance of monetary policy, that is the level of short-term interest rate BI wishes to maintain in order to achieve inflation target. Changes in BI rate in multiple of 25 bp.


Operational mechanism

Operational mechanism

SBI auction

Contraction

FASBI/SWBI

OMO Reguler

Reverse Repo SUN*)

Expansion

SBI/SUN Repo

OMO

Fine Tune Contraction

(FTK), Outright sale SUN

Contraction

Sterilisation/Intervention

(sale USD/IDR)

OMO Non Reguler/

Fine Tune Operation

Fine TuneExpansion

(FTE), Outright Buy SUN

Expansion

Sterilisation/Intervention

(buy USD/IDR)


Open market operations

Open market operations

  • Open market operations

  • 1. Auctions of SBIs and or SUN

  • 2. Deposit facility (FASBI)

  • 3. FX sterilization/intervention

    • 1. SBIs and SUN auction

    • Based on liquidity forecast, BI sets auction target (in volume) and announce to the market every Tuesday. Conducts weekly (every Wednesday) auction of SBIs, and occationally (non reguler) auction of SUN

    • Auction SBI-1 month every week, and SBI-3 month once a month

    • On a daily basis, BI closely oversees market liquidity by forecasting sources and uses of liquidity of commercial banks, in particular the movement of government accounts, changes in foreign reserves, and market condition


    Open market operations1

    Open market operations

    • Open market operations

    • Auctions of SBIs and or SUN

    • Deposit facility (FASBI)

    • FX sterilization/intervention

    • 2. Bank Indonesia deposits facility (FASBI)

    • On day-to-day, BI provides window facility for banks to deposit their liquidity with maturity o/n to one a week, aiming at smoothing the fluctuation of interbank money market rates.

    • FASBI rate o/n : BI rate – 500 bps

      7 days: (discontinued since 2006)

    • BI also offers repurchase agreement (repos) on SBI and repos/reverse repos for SUN


    Open market operations2

    Open market operations

    • Open market operations

      • Auctions of SBIs and or SUN

      • Deposit facility (FASBI)

      • FX sterilization/intervention

    • 3. Foreign exchange sterilization or intervention

    • As the cashier for the government financial transactions, BI provides FX for the government FX transactions, such as, payments of matured foreign debt, supply of FX for Pertamina originated from budget subsidy.

    • For managing liquidity in the domestic money market while smoothing the fluctuation of Rp exchange rate, BI occationally engages in selling (or buying?) FX (foreign reserves). This action is called intervention or sterilization.


    Characteristics of instruments

    SBI

    FASBI

    SWBI

    SBI Repo

    *

    FTO

    Reverse

    SUN Outright

    Repo

    **

    Impact

    Contraction

    Contraction

    Contraction

    Expansion

    Contraction/

    Contraction

    Contraction/

    Reguler

    Reguler

    Reguler

    Reguler

    Expansion

    Reguler

    Expansion

    Non reguler

    Non reguler

    Tenor

    1

    month

    o/n

    7 days

    o/n

    o/n

    < 3 month

    -

    3 month

    7 days

    14 days

    14 days

    Rp 1.000

    Rp 1.000

    Rp 500

    Max. 25%

    Rp 1.000

    Rp 1.000

    Rp 1.000

    Units

    mio

    mio

    mio

    o/s SBI

    mio

    mio

    mio

    bank

    Increment

    Rp 100

    Rp 100

    Rp 50

    Rp 100 mio

    Rp 100 mio

    Rp 100 mio

    mio

    mio

    mio

    Mechanism

    Auction

    Non

    Non

    Non

    Auction/

    Auction/

    Auction/

    auction

    auction

    auction

    Non-auction

    Non-auction

    Non-auction

    Auction

    Pre

    -

    PUAS

    PUAB o/n

    Auction/

    Auction/

    -

    Interest

    rate

    result

    determined

    /

    pre-

    Pre-

    SBI+200bp

    determined

    determined

    Participants

    Bank,

    Bank,

    Bank/un

    it

    Bank

    Bank

    Bank,

    Bank,

    broker

    broker

    syariah

    broker

    broker

    *

    )

    Characteristics of instruments

    *)


    Reverse repo sun

    Reverse Repo SUN

    • T+0

    • Banks offer quantity and bid rate (reverse repo rate) during window time

    • Settlementfirst leg T+1

    • BI debitsbank’s account equal the amount won

    • BI credit bank’s security (SUN) account

    BANK

    INDONESIA

    Announcement

    Auction RR-SUN (T-1)

    BANKS

    • Second leg (RR-SUN at maturity)

    • Bankssell back SUN

    • BI credit bank’s account at the amount settled at the first leg + reverse repo rate

    • BI debit bank’s SUN account


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