2013 cattle market situation and outlook
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2013 Cattle Market Situation and Outlook. Derrell S. Peel Breedlove Professor of Agribusiness and Livestock Marketing Specialist. 2012 Recap. Widespread drought in U.S. Continued herd liquidation Not as severe in Oklahoma this summer Limited water and forage for winter

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2013 cattle market situation and outlook

2013 Cattle Market Situation and Outlook

Derrell S. Peel

Breedlove Professor of Agribusiness and Livestock Marketing Specialist

2012 recap
2012 Recap
  • Widespread drought in U.S.
    • Continued herd liquidation
    • Not as severe in Oklahoma this summer
      • Limited water and forage for winter
  • Record high grain and forage prices
  • Record high cattle prices
    • Reduced cow-calf profitability
    • Poor feedlot and packer margins
  • Higher wholesale and retail beef prices
    • Limited beef demand
    • Weaker beef exports
slide5

Livestock Marketing Information Center

Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

slide6

Livestock Marketing Information Center

Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

2013 cattle market environment
2013 Cattle Market Environment
  • Continued drought?
    • More liquidation
  • …Or normal weather
    • More heifer retention
  • Tighter cattle supplies…into 2014
  • Beef demand is the key unknown
    • tied to general economy
2013 cattle market expectations
2013 Cattle Market Expectations
  • Cattle and beef prices pushed higher by limited supplies
    • Beef production down by 4-4.5%
  • Beef demand will limit price increases
  • Question is “How much higher?”
  • Moderation in feed prices
  • Higher cow and heifer prices (if no drought)
    • Breeding cow and heifer demand
slide11

Commercial Beef Production

Total Cattle Inventory

Livestock Marketing Information Center

Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

cattle sector implications
Cattle Sector Implications
  • Cow-calf
    • Good profit potential; cost management key
    • Rebuilding strategy and costs
    • Producer transition
  • Stocker
    • Good value of gain
  • Feedlots and packers will continue to struggle
    • Loss of capacity likely
  • Production challenges bigger than marketing challenges
slide15

Livestock Marketing Information Center

Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

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