Hiv size estimation of hiv high risk groups
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การประมาณการจำนวนประชากรกลุ่มเสี่ยงต่อการติดเชื้อ HIV (Size estimation of HIV high risk groups) - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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การประมาณการจำนวนประชากรกลุ่มเสี่ยงต่อการติดเชื้อ HIV (Size estimation of HIV high risk groups). UNAIDS /WHO Working Group on Global HIV/AIDS and STI Surveillance 2010. แผนเอดส์ชาติ 2555-9 : Getting to Zero.

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การประมาณการจำนวนประชากรกลุ่มเสี่ยงต่อการติดเชื้อ HIV (Size estimation of HIV high risk groups)

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Hiv size estimation of hiv high risk groups

HIV (Size estimation of HIV high risk groups)

UNAIDS /WHO Working Group on Global HIV/AIDS and STI Surveillance

2010


Hiv size estimation of hiv high risk groups

2555-9 : Getting to Zero


Projection of new hiv infections during 2012 2016 using aids epidemic model aem

Projection of new HIV infections during 2012-2016 using AIDS Epidemic Model (AEM)

3


Hiv size estimation of hiv high risk groups

?


Hiv size estimation of hiv high risk groups

HIV

?

1.

- ?

- ?

- ?

- ?

2.

3.


Hiv size estimation of hiv high risk groups

UNAIDS /WHO Working Group on Global HIV/AIDS and STI Surveillance, 2010


Hiv size estimation of hiv high risk groups

UNAIDS /WHO Working Group on Global HIV/AIDS and STI Surveillance, 2010


Hiv size estimation of hiv high risk groups

UNAIDS /WHO Working Group on Global HIV/AIDS and STI Surveillance, 2010


Hiv size estimation of hiv high risk groups

UNAIDS /WHO Working Group on Global HIV/AIDS and STI Surveillance, 2010


Hiv size estimation of hiv high risk groups

UNAIDS /WHO Working Group on Global HIV/AIDS and STI Surveillance, 2010

Multi-stage block sampling


Network scale up methods

Network Scale-up Methods:


Hiv size estimation of hiv high risk groups

UNAIDS /WHO Working Group on Global HIV/AIDS and STI Surveillance, 2010


T echnical working group for national estimation

Technical working group for national estimation

  • A technical working group consisted of representatives from various organizations were formed:

    • Bureau of Epidemiology (BOE)

    • Chulalongkorn University

    • East-West Center

    • MEASURE

    • National AIDS Management Center (NAMC)

    • Research Institute for Health Sciences (RIHES)

    • Thailand MoPH U.S. CDC Collaboration (TUC)

    • UNAIDS

    • UNFPA

  • Six meetings were held during September December 2011 to discuss and find the best currently available estimates figures


Steps in estimation for each population

Steps in estimation for each population *

  • Determine utilization of the size estimation and when it will be needed

    • To determine program coverage and national cost estimates for programs

    • Regular national size estimation will be needed e.g. every two years

  • Define population and geographic area

    • Population is defined based on recent behavior (e.g. sex with another man in the past year, injecting within the past 2 years)

    • Area = national estimates (details on how to arrive at the national estimates will be discussed in other section)

  • Review existing data sources for estimation

    • Existing data sources for each population were reviewed. Limitations and strengths of each method were discussed.


Steps in estimation for each population continued

Steps in estimation for each population (continued)*

  • Compile existing data and collect additional data e.g.

    • Proportion of IDU, FSW, MSM behaviors reported in surveillance data over years

    • Additional mapping data on FSW & MSM from BMA and STI cluster

    • Discuss with key informants

  • Identify strengths and limitations from each source and how the existing data could be interpreted e.g.

    • Minimal or maximum estimates

    • Overall or sub-groups

    • Geographic coverage of estimation


Steps in estimation for each population continued1

Steps in estimation for each population (continued)

  • Determine approaches and assumptions to be used for calculating national size estimates of each population

    • Triangulation of available data sources (e.g. survey data over years, literature review) to get a fixing parameter as opposed to picking one estimation method that is currently available

    • Account for over or under estimates of the existing data source

  • Verify the estimates with other additional supporting information e.g.

    • IBBS among male military conscripts and vocational school student to examine distribution of estimated populations

    • AIDS case data


Steps in estimation for each population continued2

Steps in estimation for each population (continued)

  • Identify follow up issues needed to be addressed for improving future national estimates e.g.

    • Additional questions on the IBBS survey to identify proportion of population/sub-groups of interest


Sex workers fsws msws available data sources

Sex workers (FSWs/ MSWs):Available Data Sources

*from field experience


Msm available data sources

MSM:Available Data Sources


Hiv size estimation of hiv high risk groups

RDS Recruitment site

Network Scal-up Recruitment site

Number of participants by districts(Chiang Mai)

Estimation:

1,500

(727-6000

N = 309 (Missing data = 1)

Muang 228

N=409 in 8 areas (Chiang Mai)

Estimation:

2,260 4,012

Number of participants in districts

0

1-10

11-20

21-40

>40

Omkoy

32


Hiv size estimation of hiv high risk groups

Conclusion: IDU size estimate for 2010-2011

National Household Survey on Substance Abuse, 2011

Method: Ask direct question Have you ever injected drug?

Results: Ever injected any drugs = 29,300 IDUs

Asian Epidemic Model based on RDS study in Bangkok, 2004

Method: Assumptions 1: 30% underestimation

Assumption 2: Bangkok/National AIDS case ratio

can be a multiplier.

Results: Any injections in the past 6 months = 38,300 IDUs

Regional NSUM Survey, 2010

Method: Known population scale-up & Summation:

Results: IDUs known in the past 2 years = 40,300 97,300

Consensus number (10 Jan. 2012) = 40,300

Technical Consultation: Size Estimation of MARPs in Asian Countries (23-5 September, 2013, Hong Kong )


Migrant workers available data sources

Migrant workers:Available Data Sources

*from field experience


Overview of methods used results

Overview of methods used & results


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