The Role of the Basic State in Determining the Predictability of Tropical Rainfall. Andrew Turner, Pete Inness and Julia Slingo. Talk Outline Motivation. Systematic errors in the UKMO climate model. Flux adjustments used to correct the mean state.
Andrew Turner, Pete Inness and Julia Slingo.
- atmosphere: 3.75° x 2.5° x 30 levels,
- ocean: 1.25° x 1.25° x 20 levels,
- integrated for 100 years.
Simulation of summer mean climate Predictability of Tropical Rainfall
Flux adjustment applied over 10 Predictability of Tropical Rainfall°N-10°S in HadCM3
Improvements to the summer (JJAS) mean state Predictability of Tropical Rainfall
What effect on the Variability? Predictability of Tropical Rainfall
Regression coefficients (m/s per °C)
Response of Nino4 region 10m zonal winds to Nino3 SSTs
What effect on the monsoon-ENSO teleconnection? Predictability of Tropical Rainfall
Larger ENSO magnitude with flux adjustments, coupled with stronger trade wind response to SSTs
Stronger monsoon-ENSO teleconnection.
Flux adjustments also improve the timing of the Indian rainfall-ENSO teleconnection.