Using results from revision analysis to improve compilation/estimation methods
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Using results from revision analysis to improve compilation/estimation methods. An application to the Italian IIP. Anna Ciammola – ISTAT Meeting of the OECD Short-term Economic Statistics Working Party (STESWP). Outline. Introduction A case study: the Italian IIP

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Using results from revision analysis to improve compilation/estimation methods

An application to the Italian IIP

Anna Ciammola – ISTAT

Meeting of the OECD Short-term Economic

Statistics Working Party (STESWP)


Outline compilation/estimation methods

  • Introduction

  • A case study: the Italian IIP

    Description of the approach

     Presentation of the results


Introduction compilation/estimation methods

For users

Objective  Availability of all the relevant information for using appropriately the estimates of ST indicators at different stages of the revision process

provision of information about

past revisions

schedule

future revisions

(statistical and definitional)

real-time databases

gathering all the vintages

analysis of size,

bias and efficiency

of revisions


Introduction compilation/estimation methods

  • For producers

  • Underlying issues

  • Bias in the revision process

  • Inefficiency in compilation of preliminary estimates

  • Targets

  • Reduction of (the size of) “avoidable” revisions

  • Detection of the source for bias / inefficiency


A case study compilation/estimation methods

  • Italian Index of Industrial Production (IIP)

  • Source and timing of revisions

  • Revision analysis

  • Top-down approach

  • Results


1. compilation/estimation methodsSource and time of revisions


2. compilation/estimation methodsRevision analysis

IIP - Revisions on raw year-on-year growth rates

Legend

h=1 – after one month h=12 – after 12 months

MAR –Mean Absolute Revision RMAR –Relative MAR

MR –Mean Revision SD –Standard Deviation

* a = 5%


2. compilation/estimation methodsRevision analysis

IIP - Revisions after one month on raw year-on-year growth rates


3. compilation/estimation methodsTop-down approach

  • Tools

  • Revision measures

    ►Mean Revision

    ►Mean Absolute Revision

    ►Mean Squared Revisions (together with its

    decomposition)

    ►…

  • Weighted response rates

  • Average contribution of components to the MR of IIP index


3. compilation/estimation methodsTop-down approach

Diagram describing the top-down approach


3. compilation/estimation methodsTop-down approach

  • Computation of the contribution to the MR

  • Revision of July 2004 and January months also affected by the revision of the productivity coefficients

  • Simulation exercise aimed at:

  • 1. highlighting the effect of the imputation of late respondents

  • 2. fulfilling the condition necessary to compute the average contribution of each components


4. compilation/estimation methodsResults

MIGS - Revisions after one month on raw Y-o-Y growth rates

LegendCND – Consumer non durables

CDU – Consumer durables CAP –Capital goods

INT –Intermediate GoodsENE –Energy

° Period Jan-04 / Dec-07 *a = 5%


4. compilation/estimation methodsResults

Revisions after one month on raw Y-o-Y growth rates


4. compilation/estimation methodsResults

Average weighted response rates


4. Results compilation/estimation methods

Revisions after one month on raw Y-o-Y growth rates

Legend

S–Selected subset of INT (19 NACE classes)

NS –Complement of S in INT(S U NS = INT)

* a = 5%


4. Results compilation/estimation methods

Revisions after one month on raw Y-o-Y growth rates

Legend

S–Selected subset of INT (19 NACE classes)

SC –Complement of S in IIP(S U SC = IIP)

* a = 5%


4. Results compilation/estimation methods

  • Some evidences

  • Sectors in the subset S different in terms of either business concentration or production process (on order or not)

  • Reasons for revisions traced back to:

    ►partial information previously provided by respondents (especially small firms) and revised the month after

    ►estimation of the production levels of non respondents at the first release


4. Results compilation/estimation methods

  • Possible countermeasures

  • Intensive follow up of specific groups of units (especially for large firms that work on orders)

  • Different methods for the imputation of non responses

    ►some methodological proposals already implemented in the production process of IIP  taking into account firm size  several estimators


  • Acknowledgements compilation/estimation methods

  • Teresa Gambuti – ISTAT IIP survey

  • Anna Rita Mancini – ISTAT IIP survey

  • Thank you!


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