1 / 16

Session 4: Projecting the levels of mortality, fertility and migration

Session 4: Projecting the levels of mortality, fertility and migration. Historical trends in life expectancy, fertility and migration. Life expectancy. Africa: Life expectancy. Africa: Life expectancy. Session 04_Demographic Trends_Presentation.xlsx. Fertility levels. Fertility.

naava
Download Presentation

Session 4: Projecting the levels of mortality, fertility and migration

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Session 4:Projecting the levels of mortality, fertility and migration • Historical trends in life expectancy, fertility and migration

  2. Life expectancy

  3. Africa: Life expectancy

  4. Africa: Life expectancy Session 04_Demographic Trends_Presentation.xlsx

  5. Fertility levels

  6. Fertility

  7. Official estimates National Trend 1992 DHS (retrospective birth histories) 1992 DHS P/F ratios (indirect method) 1998 DHS (retrospective birth histories) 1998 DHS P/F ratios (indirect method) 2000 MICS P/F ratios (indirect method) 2001 RGPH P/F ratios (indirect method) 2006 DHS (retrospective birth histories) 2006 DHS P/F ratios (indirect method) 2006 WPP Revision 9.5 9.0 8.5 8.0 7.5 1988 census (births < 12 months) 1998 DHS (births < 3 years) 2001 census 2006 DHS/MICS3 7.0 (births < 12 months) (births < 5 years) 1992 DHS (births < 3 years) 6.5 6.0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 NigerTFR naïve estimates

  8. Official estimates National Trend 1992 DHS (retrospective birth histories) 1992 DHS P/F ratios (indirect method) 1998 DHS (retrospective birth histories) 1998 DHS P/F ratios (indirect method) 2000 MICS P/F ratios (indirect method) 2001 RGPH P/F ratios (indirect method) 2006 DHS (retrospective birth histories) 2006 DHS P/F ratios (indirect method) 2006 WPP Revision 9.5 9.0 8.5 8.0 7.5 1988 census (births < 12 months) 1998 DHS (births < 3 years) 2001 census 2006 DHS/MICS3 7.0 (births < 12 months) (births < 5 years) 1992 DHS (births < 3 years) 6.5 6.0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 NigerTFR final estimates

  9. Africa: Fertility

  10. International migration

  11. Africa: International Migration

  12. Migration rates

  13. Africa: Migration rates

  14. Winners and losers…

  15. South-South migration is as common … North North 55 million 12.6 million 2010 72.7 million 73.6 million South South …as South-North migration Source: United Nations, Population Division/DESA, 2011

  16. Total population of high - fertility countries by variants, 1950 - 2100 Billions 4.5 4.2 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.1 2.0 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.0 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 Medium Instant Momentum

More Related