THE ARCHITETURE OF FAILURE: TIME AND TIME AGAIN

1. THE ARCHITETURE OF FAILURE: TIME AND TIME AGAIN Andrew Graham School of Policy Studies Queens University Risk Management in the Public Sector Ottawa January 22, 2019 www.andrewbgraham.ca

2. Pracademic President, APEX In Jail Federal ADM – 14 Years Pracademic: What That? www.andrewbgraham.ca

3. Research, Teaching and Writing www.andrewbgraham.ca www.andrewbgraham.ca

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5. Globally we see a consistent pattern of failures in policy and project implementation. The evidence is clear. Still, we continue to treat implementation built on the biases, faulty logic and dogged determination to ignore the lessons of past behaviour. www.andrewbgraham.ca

6. A More Positive BLUF We now know enough, backed by ample evidence that confirms common sense about how to better structure policy, its implementation and our major projects to avoid failure. Can we do it? www.andrewbgraham.ca

7. Why Focus on Failure? • For the most part, government does its job very well, given its multiple bottom lines. • Error, failure and controversy are inevitable in such a complex world. • But, can they be prevented? Yes they can, sometimes. • We move on from failure, dust ourselves off and turn to the next issue. www.andrewbgraham.ca

8. Why Focus on Failure? • We seldom sit down and reflect and learn. We either are too busy fighting off the inquiries and audits than actually integrating the learning we can glean. • When was the last time you sat down with a colleague and said, “Gee, you really messed that up. Tell me, what can I learn from you about what to avoid in the future.” • When was the last time your organization had a training session led by someone who really messed up? • And, yet, just as failure is part of our lives and what we do, we tend to let it pass. Not good. www.andrewbgraham.ca

9. What I am Going to Do to Convince You Of This • Quick review of recent research and publications from UK, Australia and the United States • Picking out common thematics – amazing similarities • Look at some common solutions • Conjecture on whether they will ever be implemented An Increasing Interest Around the World www.andrewbgraham.ca

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11. The Research Articles, among many……. • The Blunders of Government, 2013, Anthony King & Ivor Crewe • Learning from Failure, 2015,Peter Shergold, Commonwealth of Australia • A Cascade of Failures: Why Government Fails, and How to Stop It, Paul C. Light, Brookings Institute  Add Research into Phoenix and OAG Reports www.andrewbgraham.ca

12. Canada is not alone and Phoenix is not unique … www.andrewbgraham.ca

13. Phoenix On Its Own… Research to Date… www.andrewbgraham.ca

14. What follows is a distillation of the most recent research on failure. Just what was common in major failures around the world? www.andrewbgraham.ca

15. Announcement Equals Accomplishment Just cutting a ribbon doesn’t cut it. This is when all the big actors are there to cut that ribbon but not there to see the project through or back up the implementation when it hits heavy waters. This takes us to governance quickly. www.andrewbgraham.ca

16. Bluster Leads to Blunder Expectations of performance, timely delivery and anticipated savings are raised too high, deadlines come too fast and the actual cost of implementation is estimated. Has anyone heard of underpromise and overdeliver? www.andrewbgraham.ca

17. Cultural Disconnect This occurs between the formulators of the policy or response and those who had to carry it out and those affected by the policy. Let’s just call it elitism for short. It involves different views of the problem and the challenges. It also involves differing interpretation of warning signs – did someone say Phoenix? The saga of ORNGE in Ontario. www.andrewbgraham.ca

18. Handover Mentality The designers of a policy, program or response ignore the messy part called implementation. Let’s also call this operational disconnect. When you hear the phrase “We just hand over the policy for the field to implement.” get very nervous. www.andrewbgraham.ca

19. Killing Those Trying to Tell Truth to Power Not encouraging combative debate or seeking gainsayers in both the design and setting up of implementation. Don’t just shoot the messenger, exclude them from the process. Think Groupthink. This is also where availability bias comes in. www.andrewbgraham.ca

20. Failure to Backward Map Policy designers and implementers often are guilty of optimistic bias (What possibly could go wrong?) when, in fact, they should be looking at the end goal and working backwards to identify both what could go wrong, but how the whole process will roll out. Instead, they focus on the beginning, the announcement, the first stages. www.andrewbgraham.ca

21. Many Moving Parts We hear the word complexity a lot and most of the failures researched pointed to the increasing complexity in failed implementations, well beyond IT, and the failure to map that out. www.andrewbgraham.ca

22. Busy and Distracted If a policy is just the flavour of the week and something else is next week, it starts to lose momentum, needed attention, reaction and adaptation to inevitable challenges and gears start to slip. This is where effective implementation governance over time comes into play. If a policy is just the flavour of the week and something else is next week, it starts to lose momentum, needed attention, reaction and adaptation to inevitable challenges and gears start to slip. This is where effective implementation governance over time comes into play. www.andrewbgraham.ca

23. Churn of Actors At both the political and bureaucratic level this is a consistent theme in projects failing or in governments responding poorly to crises as they arise. The champion for a policy simply moves on and her successor is left to decide how much energy to put into someone else’s pet project. Similarly, the rapid turnover of senior managers in government often leaves well intentioned people to respond to emergencies in areas where they have little experience. www.andrewbgraham.ca

24. Emerging Science of Cognitive Biases • Cognitive biases tend to confirm beliefs we already have. • Biases block new information. • We need biases to short-hand our interpretation of events. • Our experiences are our greatest asset and greatest liability in this process. www.andrewbgraham.ca

25. Anchoring Bias Confirmation Bias Hindsight Bias Optimism Bias False Consensus Bias Self Serving Bias Availability Heuristic www.andrewbgraham.ca

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27. Is there a way forward? www.andrewbgraham.ca

28. Sticky Governance Small then Large: Experiment: Fail Small and Quickly Multiple Channel Risk Analysis Bias Recognition – The Curmudgeon www.andrewbgraham.ca

29. Failing Forward: Plan for the Worst Requisite Variety Cultural Heterogeneity Test Drive & Shop Around Memory Capture as a Survival Tool www.andrewbgraham.ca

30. Back to the Bottom Line – You Choose We now know enough, backed by ample evidence that confirms common sense about how to better structure policy, its implementation and our major projects to avoid failure. Can we do it? Globally we see a consistent pattern of failures in policy and project implementation. The evidence is clear. Still, we continue to treat implementation built on the biases, faulty logic and dogged determination to ignore the lessons of past behaviour. www.andrewbgraham.ca

31. The Need for Holistic Thinking

32. Come Take Canada’s Premier Professional Master of Public Administration www.queensu.ca/sps www.andrewbgraham.ca