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Execution, Clearing and Advisory Services in COMMODITIES , CAPITAL MARKETS & CURRENCIES. 33rd Energy Conference Ritz Carlton South Beach Hotel Miami Beach, Florida October 28, 2013. INTL FCStone Inc. | www.intlfcstone.com. Disclaimer.

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Intl fcstone inc intlfcstone

Execution, Clearing and Advisory Services in COMMODITIES, CAPITAL MARKETS & CURRENCIES

33rd Energy Conference

Ritz Carlton South Beach Hotel

Miami Beach, Florida

October 28, 2013

INTL FCStone Inc. | www.intlfcstone.com


Intl fcstone inc intlfcstone

Disclaimer

The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and swaps may not be suitable for all investors.  Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading.  Past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance.  All references to futures/options trading are made solely on behalf of FCStone, LLC. All references to swap execution and bi-lateral swaps are made solely on behalf of INTL FCStone Markets, LLC. FCStone, LLC will clear swaps when applicable. Swaps are only available to eligible counterparties.

This material should be construed as the solicitation of any trading strategies and/or services provided by FCStone, LLC noted in this presentation.

FCStone, LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact FCStone designated personnel for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by FCStone, LLC.

All forecasting statements made within this material represent the opinions of the author, without exception. Factual information believed to reliable, was used to formulate these statements of opinion; and FCStone, LLC cannot guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information being relied upon. Accordingly, these statements do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by FCStone, LLC. All forecasts of market conditions are inherently subjective and speculative, and actual results and subsequent forecasts may vary significantly from these forecasts. No assurance or guarantee is made that these forecasts will be achieved.


Intl fcstone inc intlfcstone

Thomas J. Saal – Senior Vice-President,

FCStone Latin America, LLC

30 years of physical & futures energy market experience

Natomas North America

Financial Analyst

State of Texas

Energy Economist

Florida Power & Light

Rate Analyst / Fuel Price Analyst / Energy Buyer

Merrill Lynch

Futures Broker - Risk Management

Pioneer Futures Inc.

Futures Broker - Risk Management

Commercial Brokerage

Futures Broker - Risk Management

Master’s Degree in Economics University of Houston

4


Intl fcstone inc intlfcstone

Energy Outlook – the Next Five Years

What’s the Market Going to Do?

By

Tom Saal


Key energy prices

Key Energy Prices

Source: NYMEX, ICE, British Petroleum and World Bank


Global crude oil price outlook

Global Crude Oil Price Outlook

Source: ICE


Us natural gas price outlook

US Natural Gas Price Outlook

Source: NYMEX


Japan lng price outlook

Japan LNG Price Outlook

Sources: British Petroleum and World Bank (Annual Data), and YCHARTS (Monthly Data)


Crude oil price brent vs supply demand fundamentals 1990 to 2011

Crude Oil:Price (Brent) vs Supply/Demand Fundamentals(1990 to 2011)

Source: CME, ICE and DOE (missing data points were estimated)


Ranking key crude oil fundamental factors

Ranking Key Crude Oil Fundamental Factors

*Correlation is the square root of R squared

Source: CME, ICE and DOE (missing data points were estimated)


Henry hub natural gas price vs supply demand fundamentals 1989 to 2011

Henry Hub - Natural Gas Price vs Supply/Demand Fundamentals (1989 to 2011)

Source: BEA, NYMEX, NGI and DOE


Ranking key natural gas fundamental factors

Ranking Key Natural Gas Fundamental Factors

*Correlation is the square root of R squared

Source: BEA, NYMEX, NGI and DOE


Japan lng price vs natural gas supply demand fundamentals 1990 to 2011

Japan LNG Price vs Natural Gas Supply/Demand Fundamentals(1990 to 2011)

Source: British Petroleum, CME and DOE


Ranking key lng fundamental factors

Ranking Key LNG Fundamental Factors

*Correlation is the square root of R squared

Source: British Petroleum, CME and DOE


Department of energy oecd and non oecd gdp projections 2011

Department of Energy: OECD and Non – OECD GDP Projections (2011)

Source: DOE – International Energy Outlook 2011


Crude oil price forecast usd bbl

Crude Oil Price Forecast (USD/BBL)

Brent: In Market Profile

Higher end = 181.95

Forecast*

Average = 121.95

Lower end = 60.95

* Tom Saal’s Forecast

Source: ICE (Monthly Data – Annual Market Profiles)


Natural gas price forecast usd mmbtu

Natural Gas Price Forecast (USD/MMBtu)

Henry Hub: In Market Profile

Higher end = 14.350

Forecast*

Average = 5.350

Lower end = 2.850

* Tom Saal’s Forecast

Source: NYMEX (Monthly Data – Annual Market Profiles)


Liquefied natural gas price forecast usd mmbtu

Liquefied Natural Gas Price Forecast(USD/Mmbtu)

Sources: British Petroleum and World Bank (Annual Data), and YCHARTS (Monthly Data)


Intl fcstone inc intlfcstone

Thank you very much,Come and visit anytime.

FCStone Latin America, LLC

A wholly owned subsidiary of INTL FCStone Inc.

1221 Brickell Avenue, 25th Floor

Miami, FL 33131

1-(305)-925-4846


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