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THE HUMAN POPULATION. Chapter 5 Chapter 6 . Population Explosion. > 1800’s – slow growth 1830 – 1 billion Time needed to add 1 billion 1930 – 2 billion 100 years 1960 – 3 billion 30 years 1975 – 4 billion 15 years 1987 – 5 billion 12 years 1999 – 6 billion 12 years

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The human population l.jpg

THE HUMAN POPULATION

Chapter 5 Chapter 6


Population explosion l.jpg
Population Explosion

  • > 1800’s – slow growth

  • 1830 – 1 billion Time needed to add 1 billion

  • 1930 – 2 billion 100 years

  • 1960 – 3 billion 30 years

  • 1975 – 4 billion 15 years

  • 1987 – 5 billion 12 years

  • 1999 – 6 billion 12 years

  • 2011 – 7 billion (?) 12 years

For information purposes only


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POPULATION GROWTH THROUGH HISTORY

12

11

2100

10

9

Modern

Age

Old

8

Iron

Middle

Bronze

Stone

Age

New Stone Age

Ages

Age

Age

7

Future

6

2000

5

4

1975

3

1950

2

1900

1

1800

Black Death

The Plague

2000

1+ million

7000

6000

5000

3000

1000

A.D.

4000

A.D.

A.D.

A.D.

A.D.

A.D.

years

B.C.

B.C.

B.C.

B.C.

B.C.

B.C.

B.C.

1

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998).


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Major Human Ages

  • Hunter-gatherer 100,000-10,000 years ago

  • Agricultural Era 10,000 – 1700’s

  • Industrial Revolution

    • Early mid 1700’s - 1940

    • Modern 1940 – present


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The world population has been growing rapidly over the past 100 years. Why?

  • Is it due to an increase in birth rate?

  • Is it due to a decrease in death rate?

  • Is it due to longer life expectancy?

  • Is it a combination of these factors?

  • The answers to this question can be found by studying demography. – to be examined later


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Glossary 100 years. Why?

Look up these terms and understand their meaning

  • Define the following terms:

  • Birth Rate (BR)

  • Death Rate (DR)

  • Rate of Natural Increase (RNI)

    • BR – DR

  • Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

  • Infant Mortality

  • Life Expectancy

  • Doubling time

  • GNI PPP per capita and GNP

  • Replacement level fertility (RLF)


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    World Economic Divisions 100 years. Why?

    • Low-income countries GNI < $766

    • Middle-income countries GNI $766-$9385

    • High-income countries GNI >$9385

    • More Developed countries (Developed) – High-income

    • Less Developed countries (Developing) – Low and Middle income

      GNI = Gross National Income


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    Two Worlds – Developed World 100 years. Why?

    • 18% of world’ population

    • wealthy nations - use 80% of world’s resources

    • affluence – over consumption

    • slow or no population growth

    • high per person environmental impact

    • I = P.A.T


    Two worlds developing world l.jpg
    Two Worlds – Developing World 100 years. Why?

    • 82% of world’ population

    • Low and middle-income nations - use 20% of world’s resources

    • 28% (1.5 billion people) of the population of developing world live on

    • rapid population growth

    • low per person environmental impact

    • 28% live on less than $1/day


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    World Population - 2007 100 years. Why?


    Slide11 l.jpg


    Slide12 l.jpg


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    Quality of Life Indicators in less developed world.

    • The United Nations rates a countries Human Development Index (HDI) (external link) on the basis of the following quality of life indicators:

    • Life expectancy - living a long and healthy life

    • Adult literacy rate and

    • Purchasing power parity, PPP - having a decent standard of living (measured by, income).

    • These factors gives insight into the ability of population to take care of itself.

    • A low income society will not have the money (GNI) to spend on food, shelter jobs and health care which affects the Infant Mortality Rate and Life Expectancy.



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    • Replacement level fertility (RLF) in less developed world.

    • 2.03 for developed countries

    • 2.16 for developing countries

    • Currently

    • More developed countries TFR = 1.6

    • Less developed countries (ex. China) TFR = 3.3



    Population increase and growth rate five year periods l.jpg
    Population Increase and Growth Rate, Five-Year Periods in less developed world.

    Percent increase per year

    Millions

    Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.


    Quality of life l.jpg
    Quality of Life in less developed world.

    • What are the effects of population growth on the quality of life in the developing world?

    • Poverty

    • Malnutrition

    • Unsafe water

    • Diseases

    • Lack of housing

    • Undermines economic growth

    • Environmental degradation

    Use the text to examine these factors


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    What options are available to rural poor ? in less developed world.

    • Over-cultivation – soil erosion

    • Farm marginal land

    • Illegal activities (poaching, drugs, prostitution)

    • Rural to urban movement - Urban ghettos

    • Emigration – legal or illegal


    Urbanization l.jpg
    Urbanization in less developed world.

    Urbanization

    Largest Urban Agglomerations, 1950, 2000, 2015Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects, The 1999 Revision.

    15 megacities (>10 million) in developing world


    The poorest of the poor l.jpg
    The poorest of the poor in less developed world.

    • 1.5 billion people live on<$1/day

    • Lack:

    • adequate food

    • decent housing

    • jobs

    • health care

    • results in high infant/child mortality and low life expectancy

    • resort to illegal activities, scavenging, begging, prostitution, illegal immigration

    • UN Millenium Development Goals


    Absolute poverty l.jpg
    Absolute Poverty in less developed world.

    • About 1.5 billion people (about 1 person in 4) lives in “absolute poverty”

    • Robert McNamara, former president of the World Bank defines this as

    • “A condition of life so limited by malnutrition, illiteracy, disease, squalid surroundings, high infant mortality, and low life expectancy as to be beneath any reasonable definition of human decency.”


    Environmental effects l.jpg
    Environmental Effects in less developed world.

    • What are the effects of population growth on the environment?

    • Soil erosion

    • Poaching

    • Loss of species

    • Desertification

    • Air/water pollution

    Examine how overpopulation affects these factors


    Affluence l.jpg
    Affluence in less developed world.

    • High consumption of food, lumber, nonrenewable resources (minerals, oil)

    • USA – highest per person consumption of resources

    • High pollution – CO2 , hazardous air and water pollutants

    • Impact on developing countries -tropical forests (lumber), minerals, oil exported.


    Demography population profile l.jpg
    Demography - Population Profile in less developed world.

    • A population profile is a bar graph which shows:

    • The number or percentage of males and females at each age group in a population.

    • Can be used to estimate the future growth of a population.


    Demography l.jpg
    Demography in less developed world.

    • The study of populations, their composition and predictions of future change.

    • Demographer - a person who studies populations and population change over time.


    Example l.jpg
    Example in less developed world.


    Slide28 l.jpg

    • % Natural Increase in less developed world. is determined by the difference between birth rate and death rate.

    • Population Growth is determined by the difference between birth rate plus immigration and death rate plus emigration.

    • Net Migration rate - # of people entering or leaving the population per 1000. A + sign indicated net addition of migrants, a – sign indicated net removal of migrants.


    Slide29 l.jpg

    This population is undergoing rapid population growth – pyramid shaped profile


    Slide30 l.jpg


    Slide31 l.jpg

    This population is undergoing slow population growth – notice the base is about the same width as the middle section (15-65 year olds)


    Slide32 l.jpg

    This population is undergoing population shrinkage or negative population growth. Notice the base is smaller than the middle population (15-65 year old) group.


    Slide33 l.jpg

    • Populations with narrow bases are producing few young. Their TFR has been below 2.0 for several years.

    • These populations are shrinking

    • may not have enough workers to support dependants in the future.

    • Many countries of western Europe are shrinking (negative percent natural increase)

    • may encourage their populations to reproduce and/or open their borders to more immigrant workers.


    Predictions vs projections l.jpg
    Predictions vs. Projections TFR has been below 2.0 for several years.

    • In the past, demographers have been incorrect in their predictions.

    • Fertility rates have declined faster than were expected.

    • They now make projections – low, medium, high.

    Source: United Nations Population Division, 2003


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