UkEcco: concepts & work to date

1. UkEcco: concepts & work to date Simon Roberts ECCOfest 2009 14Oct09

2. depre- ciation VPJ/y IrelandEcco concepts trade in fuel energy PJ/y CO2 t/y transport km/y resource VPJ/y embodied energy of stuff VPJ stocks of stuff VPJ flow of stuff VPJ/y trade in goods flow of services VPJ/y services %

3. CSIRO report, 1998, p53 In order to endogenise growth in the model, it is assumed that only the residual between output and all other investment requirements (including trade) is allocated to reinvestment in industry, and consumption, the split between the two being determined empirically and altered by a policy lever RGCT (rate of goods consumption) in the section on “Personal consumption of goods”. Reinvestment in industry is subject to a construction delay, estimated at two years ie it takes two years for a decision to invest in industry to be translated into new physical output.

4. IrelandEccogrowth loop depreciation proportion of services used by industry primary energy demand stock of service sector depreciation stock of industry sector output of goods resources capital formation of services export of goods capital formation of industry depreciation export of fuel import of goods consumption of goods import of fuel capital formation of other sectors resource demand

5. growth feedback • 3,000 VPJ/y total output • 100 VPJ/y industry investment (RCF) • 2,000 VPJ industry stock

6. IrelandEccoenergy provision shortfall stock of dwellings electricity demand stock of other sectors thermal generation stationary thermal demand stock of service sector stock of industry sector gas, oil & coal demand CCT generation output of service sector freight demand output of industry nuclear generation domestic extraction transport thermal demand service demand dwellings index standard of living per capita passenger transport volume shortfall/surplus in fuels RE generation consumption of goods fuel imports/exports interconnector shortfall in electricity generation capital formation of generation

7. IrelandEccoservice provision needed service demand industry sector stock of industry sector service demand dwellings stock of dwellings total domestic service demand service demand service sector stock of service sector depreciation capital formation of service sector service demand for exports stock of service sector required service demand net of trade

8. IrelandEcco: variables endogenous • RCF industry • consumer consumption • RCF services • exogenous • service exports

9. IrelandEcco: problems • “growth loop” • small residual (RCF IND) feeds back to the larger IND OUTPUT • derivation of “consumption” poorly substantiated • trade • energy imports VPJ equated to goods export VPJ • as energy imports increase, exactly balanced by goods export increase • services • no conversion to exported services • ignores imported services • balance of payments • no option to trade fuel, goods, services and other aspects

10. UkEcco: variables endogenous • consumer consumption • RCF services • RCF dwellings • GDP growth • energy demand • employment • foreign investment • exogenous • RCF industry • indices • fossil fuel availability • service exports

11. depre- ciation VPJ/y UkEcco concepts trade in fuel energy PJ/y CO2 t/y transport km/y resource VPJ/y BoP £/y financial account embodied energy of stuff VPJ domestic liabilities £ stocks of stuff VPJ income flow of stuff VPJ/y foreign assets £ trade in goods working population capita income flow of goods G£/y flow of services VPJ/y financial account services S£/y current account transfers trade in services

12. money • goods (flow) • services (flow) • incomes (flow) • property, equity, second-hand goods (stock) • debt, loans

13. loop 1: stuff remaining(“growth loop”) depreciation proportion of services used by industry primary energy demand stock of service sector depreciation stock of industry sector output of goods resources capital formation of services export of goods capital formation of industry depreciation import of goods consumption of goods resource demand capital formation of other sectors

14. loop 2: service provision needed service demand industry sector stock of industry sector service demand dwellings stock of dwellings total domestic service demand service demand service sector stock of service sector depreciation capital formation of service sector service demand met by imports service demand for exports stock of service sector required service demand net of trade

15. loop 3: energy provision shortfall stock of dwellings electricity demand stock of other sectors thermal generation stationary thermal demand stock of service sector stock of industry sector gas, oil & coal demand CCT generation output of service sector freight demand output of industry nuclear generation domestic extraction transport thermal demand service demand dwellings index standard of living per capita passenger transport volume shortfall/surplus in fuels RE generation consumption of goods fuel imports/exports interconnector shortfall in electricity generation capital formation of generation

16. loop 4: balance of payments fuel trade fuel £ exports goods trade goods £ imports services trade services £ investment into the UK exchange rate transfers income from assets UK investment abroad income payable on liabilities total current account

17. presentation attempts! • IoP EG talk (Oct07) • takes: 0 (Aug08), 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 (Jun09, pp53) • “The story of…” video (Jul09) • dashboards of scenarios (Sep09) • presentation of dashboards (12Oct09)