Modeling in baltimore harbor
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Modeling in Baltimore Harbor. Technical Outreach Prepared by MDE/TARSA Prepared for the Baltimore Harbor Stakeholder Advisory Group September 10, 2002. Harbor Toxics Modeling Program. Estimate Nonpoint Source Loads - Model the watershed - estimate loads from the land to the water

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Modeling in Baltimore Harbor

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Modeling in baltimore harbor

Modeling in Baltimore Harbor

Technical Outreach

Prepared by

MDE/TARSA

Prepared for theBaltimore Harbor Stakeholder Advisory Group

September 10, 2002


Harbor toxics modeling program

Harbor Toxics Modeling Program

  • Estimate Nonpoint Source Loads -

    • Model the watershed - estimate loads from the land to the water

    • Provide inputs to the Harbor Models

    • Uses a Storm Water Management Model (SWMM)

  • Simulate Fate of Toxics in Baltimore Harbor – Harbor Models

    • Management/Screen (Box Model) - UMCES

      • Hydrodynamics (water transport) and Sediment Transport

      • Toxic (Dissolved/Particulate)

      • Food Web

    • Detailed Assessment (Upper Bay Model) - VIMS

      • Models entire Upper Bay to include exchange between the Harbor and the Bay

      • Hydrodynamics (water transport) and Sediment Transport

      • Toxic (Dissolved/Particulate)


Harbor toxics modeling framework

Harbor Toxics Modeling Framework

Watershed Model

Point Source and other Loads

Box Model

Appropriate Scenarios

Upper Bay Model

Toxic Water Quality Prediction


Umces toxic box model

UMCES – Toxic Box Model

  • Model Status

    • Hydrodynamic/Sediment Transport

      • Linking Nonpoint Source and Point Source Loads – Completed

      • Mass Balance Check - Completed

      • Transfer Coefficients

      • Sediment Transport Calibration

    • Toxic Box/Foodweb

      • Linking Nonpoint Source and Point Source Loads – Completed

      • Sensitivity Test

      • Linking Hydrodynamic/Sediment Transport Model


Modeling in baltimore harbor

Baltimore Harbor Point Source to UMCES Toxic Model

Tate&Lyle

Beth-steel 014

CSG+TSG

Locke

MTA -W

Carr-L G

Beth 17

Patapsco POTW

Beth 101

CSX

US-Gypsum

Millennium1,2,3

Grace Davison

Erachem-Comilog

Cox Creek WWTP


Modeling in baltimore harbor

Baltimore Harbor Non-point Source Inputs to UMCES Toxic Model

830

JF+810+800

820

840+850+860

GF+770+790

PR+780+910+920

900/3

900/3

880+

890

900/3


Modeling in baltimore harbor

UMCES – Hydrodynamic/Sediment

  • Data : Time varying sea level at the Harbor mouth and time-varying winds to predict the temporal evolution of currents, sea-surface elevation, and water properties within the Harbor for 4 observed months.

    • May 1995

    • October/November 1999 – CHARM 1

    • March/April 2000 – CHARM 2

    • July/August 2000 – CHARM 3

  • Grid size :

    • Horizontal – 360m * 360m

    • Vertical – 6 layers (Sigma Coordinate)


Modeling in baltimore harbor

UMCES – Hydrodynamic/Sediment Mass Balance Checkup

  • October/November 1999 – CHARM 1


Harbor toxic modeling framework vims upper bay model

Harbor Toxic ModelingFrameworkVIMS – Upper Bay Model

  • Model Status

    • Hydrodynamic/Sediment Transport - Final Stage

      • Incorporating Nonpoint and Point Sources

    • ToxiWasp (simulating fate of toxic) – In Progress

      • Incorporate the numerical Quickest Scheme into the toxic model – Completed

      • Implementation of Toxic Model cell mapping structure - Completed

      • Code testing for sediment toxicant transport - Completed

      • Conduct the simulation for lead - Completed

      • Incorporating Nonpoint and Point Sources


Harbor toxic modeling framework vims upper bay model1

Hydrodynamic Model

coupled

Sediment Transport Model

Interface

Interface

Toxic Model

Harbor Toxic ModelingFrameworkVIMS – Upper Bay Model


Modeling in baltimore harbor

Harbor Toxic Modeling FrameworkVIMS –Hydrodynamic/Sediment Model Calibration stations

Toxic

Toxic


Modeling in baltimore harbor

M

T

;

;

T

A

S

R

;

T

A

S

R

;

;

;

;

C

C

C

C

S

S

S

S

G

G

G

G

C

L

G

;

;

L

I

C

L

G

;

;

P

-

W

W

T

P

;

B

S

1

4

;

;

B

S

1

7

U

S

G

;

;

;

B

S

1

0

1

;

U

S

G

W

R

G

D

M

I

H

;

;

M

I

H

;

M

I

H

;

;

E

C

;

C

C

-

W

W

T

P

Toxic Point Source Loading to VIMS Model

A

-

W

B

C

S

X

M

I

-

H

P

P

N

Note: Point Source loadings from each outfall of the listed industries. They are distributed to the closest model cells.


Modeling in baltimore harbor

Toxic Nonpoint Source Loading to VIMS Model

J

o

n

e

s

F

a

l

l

8

1

0

G

w

y

n

n

s

F

a

l

l

7

9

0

8

0

0

8

2

0

7

8

0

7

7

0

8

3

0

9

1

0

9

2

0

P

a

t

a

p

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c

o

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v

e

r

8

6

0

8

4

0

8

5

0

8

9

0

9

0

0

8

8

0

8

7

0

N

Note: Non-point source loadings from the watershed segments. They are evenly distributed to their adjacent model cells.


Progress future actions

Progress/Future Actions

August 2002

  • Complete CHARM point source sampling – finalize data report

  • Finalize watershed model report

  • Continue working on calibrating hydrodynamic and toxic components

  • Work with Stakeholders

    December 2002

  • Finalize hydrodynamic calibration

  • Preliminary Toxic Model calibration

  • Sensitivity test of Nonpoint Source/Point Source load reduction using UMCES Box Model.

  • Work with Stakeholders


Harbor eutrophication modeling program

Harbor Eutrophication Modeling Program

  • Estimate Nonpoint Source Loads - Watershed Modeling

    • Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) - Completed

  • Simulate Water Quality in Baltimore Harbor – Harbor Modeling – Final Stage

    • A 3-D Hydrodynamic Model - Curvilinear Hydrodynamic 3-Dimension (CH3D)

    • A 3-D Comprehensive Water Quality Model - CE-QUAL-ICM

    • A Sediment Diagenesis Model


Harbor eutrophication modeling framework

Harbor Eutrophication Modeling Framework

Watershed Model

HSPF

Hydrology (flow, TSS)

Hydrodynamic Model

CH3D

Velocity, Diffusion, Surface Elevation,

Salinity, Temperature

Water Quality Model

CE-QUAL-ICM

Temperature, Salinity, Total Suspended Solid, Cyanobacteria/Diatoms/Algae, Carbon, Nitrogen, Phosphorus, COD, DO, Silica

Watershed Model

HSPF

nutrients, sediments

Sediment Diagenesis Model

Sediment initial condition, Sediment settling rate

Point Source and other loads

Water Quality Prediction


Current eutrophication model status

Current Eutrophication Model Status

  • Watershed (HSPF) – Completed (Internal/External Review Completed)

  • Hydrodynamic Model – Completed

  • Water Quality Model – Final Stage

    (Internal Review Completed)


Progress future actions1

Progress/Future Actions

August 2002

  • Watershed Model Completed

  • Finalize Hydrodynamic and Water Quality Model Calibration

  • Work with Stakeholders

    December 2002

  • External Technical Review Meeting

  • Sensitivity Test of Nonpoint Source/Point Source Load Reduction

  • Preliminary Scenario Strategies

  • Work with Stakeholders


Scenario runs decision criteria and procedure

Scenario Runs (Decision Criteria and Procedure)

Draft – For Discussion Purposes


Modeling in baltimore harbor

Scenario Runs (Decision Criteria and Procedure)

Calibrated Model

No

impairment

Current Progress case

Do hydrology/flow analysis to choose a representative year and use that year hydrology with current loading data to run the model

Delisting/

Monitoring

Impairment

Identify critical condition

Dry, wet and average year, worse water quality, etc.


Modeling in baltimore harbor

Scenario Runs (Decision Criteria and Procedure)

Identify critical condition

Dry, wet and average year, worse water quality, etc.

External vs. Internal Source

Remove and/or double both point and non-point source to see if internal source (sediment) is significant

Internal important

Natural Recovery Time line

Use model to test the natural recovery time

Internal & External equally important

External important

Point vs. Nonpoint source in Harbor

Remove or double ps to see if nps is significant

Remove or double nps to see if ps is significant

External vs. Hydrodynamic in the Harbor

Remove or double individual subwatershed point and non-point sources to see if the hydrodynamic transport from other region is significant

External important

Hydrodynamic important


Modeling in baltimore harbor

Scenario Runs (Decision Criteria and Procedure)

Point vs. Nonpoint source in Harbor

Remove or double ps to see if nps is significant

Remove or double nps to see if ps is significant

External vs. Hydrodynamic in the Harbor

Remove or double individual subwatershed point and non-point sources to see if the hydrodynamic transport from other region is significant

External important

Point vs. Non-point source in subwatershed

Remove or double ps to see if nps is significant

Remove or double nps to see if ps is significant

Hydrodynamic important

Do subwatershed reduction scenarios

Do entire harbor reduction scenarios


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