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The Balancing Act: Perspectives of the Global and Domestic Oil Markets. Frederick J. Lawrence Vice President - Economics and International Affairs. Alien Vs. Predator. Demand appears to be driving Fundamentals in a Tight Market – is it Sustainable?

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The balancing act perspectives of the global and domestic oil markets

The Balancing Act:Perspectives of the Global and Domestic Oil Markets

Frederick J. Lawrence

Vice President - Economics and International Affairs


Alien vs predator
Alien Vs. Predator

  • Demand appears to be driving Fundamentals in a Tight Market – is it Sustainable?

    • Global Economy, Asia Growth Components & More?

    • World demand up an estimated 2.7 Mmb/d (3.4%)

    • US demand up 460,000 b/d (2.4%) & China demand up an estimated 860,000 b/d (16.5%) in 2004.

      +

  • Supply Reacts to Demand and Price but hitting Capacity limitations

    • OPEC & Non-OPEC Potential – Market Share vs. Reserves

    • Spare Capacity & Just in Time Behavior – narrow the gap

    • Energy Security, Interdependence & Diversification – growing connectivity between foreign and domestic policy

      = INCREASED VOLATILITY & FEAR FACTOR

























Where Does Our Energy Come From? question.2003 Wells Drilled

= Gas

= Oil

= CBM

= Horizontal

= Dry




Producing 18 quads of energy per year
Producing 18 Quads of question.Energy Per Year

Biomass



Volatility at work 1986 2004
Volatility at Work Energy Issues (1986-2004)


U s oil deficit
U.S. Oil Deficit Energy Issues


Refinery situation
Refinery Situation Energy Issues


Conclusion
Conclusion Energy Issues

Demand calls shots until proven differently

Market volatility looks sustainable

Integrative solutions needed

There will be a sequel

Demand calls shots until proven differently

Market volatility looks sustainable

Integrative solutions needed

There will be a sequel


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