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EUROPEAN ENVIRONMENTAL FORUM. EVALUATING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE POLICIES ON DEVELOPMENT Osvaldo Feinstein 9 February 2012. Evaluating the impact of climate change policies on development. Themes 1. Clarifications concerning evaluating impact,

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European environmental forum

EUROPEAN ENVIRONMENTAL FORUM

EVALUATING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE POLICIES ON DEVELOPMENT

Osvaldo Feinstein

9 February 2012


Evaluating the impact of climate change policies on development

Evaluatingtheimpact of climatechangepoliciesondevelopment

Themes

1. Clarifications concerning evaluating impact,

climate change policies and development

2. Expected results from these evaluations

3. Evaluation questions and methods

4. Useful resource materials


Evaluating impact

Evaluating impact

  • A fundamentalist view: IE is, and only is, evaluation using Randomized Control Trials

  • A pragmatic view: positive and negative, primary and secondary long term effects produced by a development intervention, directly or indirectly, intended or unintended (OECD glossary)


Impact and the results chain

Impact and the results chain

  • Resultschain

    INPUTS  OUTPUTS  OUTCOMES  IMPACTS

  • Processes, activities and context

  • Non-linearitiesand feedbackloops


Climate change policies ccp

Climate Change Policies (CCP)

  • Policies to mitigate or adapt to climate change

  • Innovative policies (risk and uncertainty)

  • Explicit CCP and implicit CCP (unintended effects on climate change of non-CCPs)


Adaptation and mitigation

Adaptation and Mitigation

ADAPTATION

Actions that people, countries and societies take to

adjust to climate change that actually occurred, or whose occurrence is anticipated (reactive & anticipatory adaptation)

Responses to actual or anticipated shifts in climate e.g., changing crops

MITIGATION

Actions reducing the chances that adaptation will be required

Preventive actions, e.g., GHG emission reductions

When mitigation fails or is too late, adaptation is needed

Evaluating the impact, efficiency and sustainability of A & M


Community of practice

Community of Practice

Community of practice for the evaluation of climate change and development (supported by the GEF Evaluation Office)

http://www.climate-eval.org/?q=home

Follow-up of the International Conference on Evaluating Climate Change and Development

http://www.thegef.org/gef/eo_office


On the concept of development

On the Concept of Development

Development as freedom (Amartya Sen)

Development as opportunities and empowerment (N. Stern)

3. Sustainable development


Growth development climate change

Growth, Development & Climate Change

  • Frequent focus: GROWTH  CLIMATE CHANGE

  • GROWTH, even SUSTAINABLE GROWTH, is different from DEVELOPMENT

  • Our focus: CCPOLICIES  DEVELOPMENT


Expected results from evaluating cc policies on development

Expected results from evaluating CC policies on Development

1. More effective and efficient pro-development

evidence based climate change policies

2. Evaluation capacity development through learning-by-doing


Evidence based vs fundamentalism

Evidence-based vs Fundamentalism

Climate change fundamentalism

negationism: nothing needs to be done (denial)

catastrophism: nothing can be done (alarmism)

voluntarism : everything can be done

Pragmatic approach

possibilism: something can/must be done

Evidence-based climate change policies

evaluation as a source of evidence


Questions that evaluation suggests and that should contribute to answer

Questions that evaluation suggests and that should contribute to answer

  • Which climate change policies led to the highest net development impact in which contexts and why?

  • How can evaluation contribute to the design and implementation of CCPs to enhance their positive effects on development?

  • ?


On evaluation methods

Onevaluationmethods

  • A pluralisticapproach, consistentwiththepragmaticdefinition of impactevaluation

  • Models, triangulation, application of evaluationcriteria, cost-benefitanalysis,

    costeffectivenessanalysis, causal chain,

    theory of changeortheorybasedevaluation

  • Meta-analysis, synthesisreviews(3iE)


Making assumptions explicit

Makingassumptionsexplicit

Assumptionsconcerning

Incentives

Capacities

Adoption

Risk

Uncertainty

Sustainability


Key message on evaluation methods

Key message on evaluation methods

Choosing methods and/or techniques that are:

  • Fit for purpose

  • Fit for task

  • Fit for resources

  • Fit for circumstances

    (“Horses for courses”)


Circumstances

Circumstances

  • Purpose of the evaluation

  • Available capacities

  • Type of intervention

  • Budget constraint

  • Deadline

  • Data availability

    Bottom line: Fit for circumstances


Useful resources

Useful resources

  • US GAO “Designing Evaluations” 2012 Revision

  • WB Impact Evaluation Handbook (2011)

  • Network of Networks for Impact Evaluation (NONIE) “Impact Evaluations and Development”

    (2009)

  • New Directions for Evaluation (2009)


Some additional useful resources

Some additional useful resources

  • Climate change evaluations by the WB IEG

  • WDR (2011) and HDR (2010) on climate change

  • “Evaluating Climate Change and Development”09

  • Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change 06

  • International Initiative for Impact Evaluation (3iE)

  • Bert Metz (2010) “Controlling Climate Change”

    http://www.controllingclimatechange.info/ControllingClimateChange_by_BertMetz.pdf


The end

The end?

Thank you!

[email protected]


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