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Auto Evolution in the 21 st Century Ken Welles, May 19, 2010

http://www.wired.com/autopia/2008/07/laugh-at-high-g/. http://www.whatiamupto.com/gasification/woodgastruck.html. Auto Evolution in the 21 st Century Ken Welles, May 19, 2010. http://www.bornrich.org/entry/worlds-fastest-battery-powered-car-speeds-at-122kmh/. Full Disclosure – What I Drive.

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Auto Evolution in the 21 st Century Ken Welles, May 19, 2010

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  1. http://www.wired.com/autopia/2008/07/laugh-at-high-g/ http://www.whatiamupto.com/gasification/woodgastruck.html Auto Evolution in the 21st Century Ken Welles, May 19, 2010 http://www.bornrich.org/entry/worlds-fastest-battery-powered-car-speeds-at-122kmh/

  2. Full Disclosure – What I Drive 10 year old F150 – 15 MPG 12 year old CRV – 25 MPG 20 year old MF-50 – 50 yd3/G 10 year old F150 With 5th wheel – 10 MPG

  3. Auto Evolution in the 21st Century CAUSED BY • Fuel Prices • Gasoline, alternate fuels • Government • MPG Standards, Tax Credits • Economy • Boom-SUV, Bust-Used Cars

  4. Government • not predictable • Economy • not predictable • Gasoline Prices • Long Term Increase

  5. Fuel Prices will be the Major Influence • Peak Oil • Future gasoline output will decline • Competition For Fuel • China, India • “Global Warming” • CO2 taxes

  6. What Will Future Fuel Be? SOLID Wood Chips, Charcoal, Sawdust LIQUID Diesel, Gasoline, Ethanol, Methanol, Biodiesel, Syn-Fuel GAS Hydrogen, Methane (NG), Ethane, Propane, Butane ELECTRIC Batteries – Lead-Acid, NiCad, NiMH, Lithium Nuclear Fission, Fusion, Heat Engine Mixture Hybrid, Flex Fuel

  7. What Will Future Fuel Be? SOLID Wood Chips, Charcoal, Sawdust LIQUID Diesel, Gasoline, Ethanol, Methanol, Biodiesel, Syn-Fuel GAS Hydrogen, Methane (NG), Ethane, Propane, Butane ELECTRIC Batteries – Lead-Acid, NiCad, MiMH, Lithium Nuclear Fission, Fusion, Heat Engine Mixture Hybrid, Flex Fuel

  8. Choices for this talk • IC-engine only • Gasoline • Flex Fuel • Diesel • NG (Honda Civic GX) • Hybrids • Mild (Chevy Malibu) • Full (Prius) • Plug in (Prius+) • EV (Electric Vehicle) • On Board IC generator (Chevy Volt) • Battery Only (Subaru R1e- Tesla Roadster) • H2 Fuel Cell Vehicle (Addendum) • Rapid Transit • Flying Cars • Teleportation

  9. Choices for this talk • IC-engine only • Gasoline • Diesel • Flex Fuel • NG (Honda Civic GX) • Hybrids • Mild (Chevy Malibu) • Full (Prius) • Plug in (Prius+) • EV (Electric Vehicle) • On Board IC generator (Chevy Volt) • Battery Only (Subaru R1e- Tesla Roadster)

  10. What can you do with a “normal” car Wired magazine “Laugh at High Gas Prices With a 235-MPG VW” The car has anti-lock brakes, stability control and airbags. $30-40k. http://www.wired.com/autopia/2008/07/laugh-at-high-g/

  11. What is the cheap solution? Kia Rio$11,495 31 mpg Smart ForTwo $11,990 36 mpg Toyota Yaris$12,35532 mpg. Hyundai Accent $13,64531 mpg http://www.thedailygreen.com/environmental-news/latest/cheap-fuel-efficient-cars-471207#ixzz0hKwVPNVb

  12. Toyota Prius$22,800 50 mpg.

  13. Toyota Prius$22,800 50 mpg. Compare to $12,800 32 mpg car. $4.00 gasoline, About 225,000 miles to the break even point $6.00 gasoline, About 150,000 miles to the break even point $8.00 gasoline, About 110,000 miles to the break even point

  14. How do we compare costs of Gasoline Cars vs. Other Fuels? GGE Gallon of Gasoline Equivalent

  15. GGE – Gallon of Gasoline Equivalence When used in a car 1 gallon gasoline = 115,000 BTU = 33 kWh (6.1 lbs) 1 gge 0.88 gallon diesel (6.0 lbs) 1 gge 1.50 gallon ethanol (9.9 lbs) 1 gge 127 cubic feet (STP) natural gas (5.7 lbs, 950 gal) 1 gge 9 kWh available electricity (130 lbs, 8 gal) * 1 gge 178 cubic feet (STP) Hydrogen (1 lb, 1330 gal) ** 1 gge * Electric cars ~ 0.3 kWh / mile, compare to 30 mpg petrol car 1 gallon petrol = 9 kWh ** with 60% eff. Fuel cell, (357 cubic feet for internal combustion)

  16. 13.2 gallons gasoline ~ 100 lbs 20 gallons ethanol ~ 150 lbs 13.2 gallons @ 30 mpg ~ 400 miles range 55 gallons compressed NG ~ 250 lbs (mostly tank weight) http://www.ewsews.com/cngprices.html 105 gallons Lithium Batteries ~ 2,000 lbs 250 gallons Prius Batteries ~ 14,000 lbs http://image.motortrend.com/f/10795722/112_0808_10z+2009_honda_civic+side_view.jpg

  17. We will NEVER run out of gasoline!!! (We WILL run out of cheap gasoline) What is a gallon of gasoline worth to me? Going for a Sunday drive to nowhere $2.00 Running Errands at random $3.00 Driving to work $4.00 Mowing my lawn $10.00 Using my chain saw and lumber mill $20.00 Running my generator in power outage $25-$50 (Summer-Winter)

  18. Choices for this talk • IC-engine only • Gasoline • Diesel • Flex Fuel • NG (Honda Civic GX) • Hybrids • Mild (Chevy Malibu) • Full (Prius) • Plug in (Prius+) • EV (Electric Vehicle) • On Board IC generator (Chevy Volt) • Battery Only (Subaru R1e- Tesla Roadster)

  19. Diesel: Good for trucks. Bad for cars EPA standards mandate a series of Tiers for diesel emissions We are now in Tier 3, Tier 4 is coming To meet these standards, exhaust systems are VERY expensive You have an extra tank of urea solution for injection into exhaust Worth it for big trucks Costs too much for cars Gasoline is more cost effective in reducing petroleum use http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/clean_vehicles/dieseldilemma_exsum.pdf

  20. Choices for this talk • IC-engine only • Gasoline • Diesel • Flex Fuel • NG (Honda Civic GX) • Hybrids • Mild (Chevy Malibu) • Full (Prius) • Plug in (Prius+) • EV (Electric Vehicle) • On Board IC generator (Chevy Volt) • Battery Only (Subaru R1e- Tesla Roadster)

  21. Ethanol-Gasoline Mixtures Corn Ethanol – Bad Idea Inefficient, and competing for food Only useful now because of subsidies, mandates Cellulosic Ethanol/Methanol – Poor Idea Made from plant waste, switch grass, corn stover Competes for arable land OK for micro-business, self-sustenance

  22. LIQUID SYN-FUEL Energy source Coal Natural Gas Bio-waste Engineered Algae Energy crops Process Fischer-Tropsch Transesterification Pyrolysis Fermentation http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synthetic_fuel If done cheaply, could displace all NG cars

  23. Choices for this talk • IC-engine only • Gasoline • Diesel • Flex Fuel • NG (Honda Civic GX) • Hybrids • Mild (Chevy Malibu) • Full (Prius) • Plug in (Prius+) • EV (Electric Vehicle) • On Board IC generator (Chevy Volt) • Battery Only (Subaru R1e- Tesla Roadster)

  24. NG – Gas Car Comparison: Honda Civic Honda Civic Model GX (Natural Gas) DX (Gasoline) Natural Gas Car is: Base Price $25,190 $17,765 $7,425 (42%) more Engine Type In-Line 4-Cylinder Engine Block/Cylinder Head Aluminum-Alloy Displacement (cc) 1799 Horsepower @ rpm (SAE net) 113 @ 6300 140 @ ? 81% Horsepower Torque (lb-ft @ rpm) 109 @ 4300 128 @ ? 85% Torque Bore and Stroke (mm) 81 x 87.3 Compression Ratio 12.5:1 10.5:1 CARB Emissions Rating AT-PZEV [1] ULEV-2 Much Lower Emissions 5-Speed Auto Transmission Standard Available Front Disc/Rear Drum (in.) 11.1 / 8.7 10.3 / 7.9 Cargo Volume (cu. ft.) 6.0 12.0 50% trunk space Curb Weight (lbs) 2910 2692 218 lbs (8%) heavier Weight Distribution (%, f/r) 59 / 41 61 / 39 ~70 lbs engine, ~150 lbs tank 5-Spd Auto (City/Hway/Comb) 24 / 36 / 28 (GGE*) 25 / 36 / 29 About the same mileage Fuel (gal.) 8.03 GGE @ 3600psi 13.2 Combined Range 90% of tank 202 miles 345 miles 59% range (143 miles less) Required Fuel CNG Regular Unleaded Honda websites of Civic DX and Civic Gx

  25. NG – Gas Car Comparison: Honda Civic Going from a Gasoline car to a NG car you have: 40% higher price 40% less range per fill-up 50% less trunk room 20% less acceleration < $2.00 / gallon gasoline equivalent 200,000 miles payback at $3/gal gasoline 100,000 miles payback at $4/gal gasoline Honda websites of Civic DX and Civic Gx

  26. Can I pump Natural Gas Locally? Yes! Albany & Schenectady Clean Energy - NYS DOT 23008 Chrisler Avenue Exit Rotterdam, NY 12303 Phone: 781-685-4857 Fuel: Compressed Natural Gas Access: Public - card key at all times Office of General Services - NYS McCarty Avenue and Route 9 W Southern Boulevard Albany, NY 12209 Phone: 518-473-6594 8 Fuel: Compressed Natural Gas Access: Public - card key at all times

  27. Can I pump Natural Gas at home? Maybe… The pump is a (minor) engineering problem Phill used 10¢ electricity / GGE Phill went bankrupt Phill ~$1,000 / year to maintain ~ $0.50-$1.00 / GGE

  28. Will Home Refueling of NG cars Require a new pipelines? Assume 100% NG vehicle penetration NG refueled from the home line, 8pm – 6am, Assume 33 miles average use per day (12,000 mi/yr), 4.5 ft3 / mile About 150 ft3 NG / day for the car Average US house = 260 ft3 NG / day Yes - we add 50-100% NG volume

  29. NG for SynFuel or NG cars? SynFuel No new pipelines Use existing Gas Stations No change to cars Can also use Coal, Biomass Many $$$ SynFuel plants NG Cars No SynFuel plants Overnight Home Refueling Cars cost more Cars don’t go as far Need new gas lines everywhere Refit 100,000 gas stations My Opinion: SynFuels will win

  30. Choices for this talk • IC-engine only • Gasoline • Flex Fuel • Diesel • NG (Honda Civic GX) • Hybrids • Mild (Chevy Malibu) • Full (Prius) • Plug in (Prius+) • EV (Electric Vehicle) • On Board IC generator (Chevy Volt) • Battery Only (Subaru R1e- Tesla Roadster)

  31. HYBRIDS • Mild (Chevy Malibu) • Engine off at stop lights • Start engine and car • Store about 1-2 brake cycles • Full (Prius) • Drive electric only > 1 mile • Electric only at low speed • Store long downhill energy • Plug in (Prius+) • Drive electric only > 20 miles • Use IC engine to extend range indefinitely • IC engine drives the wheels directly

  32. Full Hybrids - Prius 50 mpg, well engineered, affordable This is a young/mature technology This uses a 110 lb NiMH battery Replacement cost $3,000 275 Volts, 1.3 kWh 1.1 pint gasoline, 3-4 miles travel (100% depletion) All energy used is from Gasoline

  33. PRIUS  PHEV, using same battery To go 40 miles (PHEV40), need ~15x energy storage 1600 lb battery costing $25,000 - $35,000 Therefore PHEV requires a different kind of battery That battery is the Lithium Ion battery

  34. Choices for this talk • IC-engine only • Gasoline • Flex Fuel • Diesel • NG (Honda Civic GX) • Hybrids • Mild (Chevy Malibu) • Full (Prius) • Plug in (Prius+) • EV (Electric Vehicle) • On Board IC generator (Chevy Volt) • Battery Only (Subaru R1e- Tesla Roadster)

  35. Plug-In Hybrid Vehicle Basics Like a Hybrid with a BIG battery Plug it in overnight to charge the battery Run as far as you can on battery Then start using the gasoline engine as a normal hybrid PHEV20 can go 20 miles on electric only Infinite gas mileage on days you go less than 20 miles If you go 40 miles every day, you get 100 mpg

  36. PHEV has enormous potential gas mileage http://www.epa.gov/oppt/nano/p2docs/casestudy3_chiang.pdf Your gas mileage gets better with bigger batteries But Your electric bill goes up as gasoline costs go down

  37. Will Home Recharging of PHEVs Require a new powerlines? PHEV 40, with 90% of charging done 8pm – 6am, 100% penetration At 300 Wh / mile, 12 kWh of energy for a full recharge 1.2 kW charge rate required, well below the 2-3 kW peak power demand per house. Efficient use of off peak power, wind power Inefficient use of solar power Raises the base load, possibly lowers the peaking load. NO not if we charge at night

  38. RECHARGEABLE BATTERIES – The Electricity Cost Compare to 30 mpg car Electric cars ~ 0.3 kWh / mile 30 miles @ 0.3 kWh / mile = 9 kWh 1 Gallon Gasoline = 9 kWh 9 kWh @ $0.15 = $1.35 $1.35 electricity = 1 Gallon Gasoline

  39. RECHARGEABLE BATTERIES – The Hidden Cost Electric cars ~ 0.3 kWh / mile, compare to 30 mpg 1 gallon petrol = 9 kWh @ $0.15 = $1.35 / gge cost of electricity Battery Life: 400–1000 cycles (think laptop batteries) New batteries ~$1 / Wh A 1 kWh battery is about $1,000 Battery lasts 1,000 cycles, that’s $1 / kWh stored 1 gallon petrol = 9kWh stored 9 kWh * $1 / kWh stored= $9.00 / gge wear on the battery!!!!! Our cost = $1.35 electricity + $9.00 wear = $10.35 Today’s batteries cost us $10.35 / GGE

  40. RECHARGEABLE BATTERIES – The Hidden Cost Electric cars ~ 0.3 kWh / mile, compare to 30 mpg 1 gallon petrol = 9 kWh @ $0.15 = $1.35 / gge cost of electricity Battery Life: 400–1000 deep discharges (think laptop batteries) New batteries ~$1 / Wh. A 1 kWh battery is about $1,000 If the battery lasts 1,000 cycles, that’s $1 / kWh stored 1 gallon petrol = 9kWh @ $1.00 = $9.00 / gge wear on the battery!!!!! Our cost = $10.35 / gge What do we need? Cut battery cost by 50% Increase battery life by 5 Total cost becomes $2.35 / GGE

  41. Comparison of cars, hybrids and PHEVs 28 MPG car Prius Distance Between Charges (miles) http://www.cmu.edu/me/ddl/publications/2009-EP-Shiau-Samaras-Hauffe-Michalek-PHEV-Weight-Charging.pdf

  42. Comparison of cars, hybrids and PHEVs http://www.cmu.edu/me/ddl/publications/2009-EP-Shiau-Samaras-Hauffe-Michalek-PHEV-Weight-Charging.pdf

  43. Lifetime cost per mile comparisons Ibid.

  44. Choices for this talk • IC-engine only • Gasoline • Flex Fuel • Diesel • NG (Honda Civic GX) • Hybrids • Mild (Chevy Malibu) • Full (Prius) • Plug in (Prius+) • EV (Electric Vehicle) • On Board IC generator (Chevy Volt) • Battery Only (Subaru R1e- Tesla Roadster)

  45. Prius+ battery electronics motor combiner wheels generator engine Chevy Volt battery electronics motor wheels generator engine

  46. How much engine does the Volt need? Chevy plans on a 70 hp engine What is the smallest engine that would work? 70 hp 50 hp allows indefinite climb on a 6% grade at 68 mph http://images.thetruthaboutcars.com/2008/05/ev-performance-simulation.pdf

  47. The Volt doesn’t need a rotating engine Linear Generators Microturbines

  48. The Volt doesn’t need a rotating engine Linear Generators Microturbines

  49. Choices for this talk • IC-engine only • Gasoline • Flex Fuel • Diesel • NG (Honda Civic GX) • Hybrids • Mild (Chevy Malibu) • Full (Prius) • Plug in (Prius+) • EV (Electric Vehicle) • On Board IC generator (Chevy Volt) • Battery Only (Subaru R1e- Tesla Roadster)

  50. Battery Only Cars OK to run short errands No good for long distances Refill gasoline or NG tanks in ~5 minutes Recharge batteries in 30 minutes to many hours Fast charging damages batteries

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