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Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead

Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead. Dr. Frank Marks NOAA OAR/AOML/HRD March 6, 2007. Overview. Key Findings and Recommendations Data Collection & Research NOAA Research to Support Chapter 5 Priorities. Key Findings & Recommendations. Data collection

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Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead

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  1. Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead Dr. Frank Marks NOAA OAR/AOML/HRD March 6, 2007

  2. Overview • Key Findings and Recommendations • Data Collection & Research • NOAA Research to Support Chapter 5 Priorities

  3. Key Findings & Recommendations • Data collection • Significant gaps in meeting observation requirements • Remotely sensed ocean surface vector winds (e.g., QuikSCAT) • Accurate measurement of 3-D global wind field • Satellite altimetry: JAG/TCR strongly endorses acquisition of an altimeter instrument as an alternative to the cancelled NPOESS ALT JAG/TCR strongly supports R&D to help meet reqmts • Through the OFCM infrastructure, need to develop a strategic plan for improved TC recon & surveillance (manned, unmanned, space-based) • Consider observations and observing strategies for forecaster needs initialization of advanced hurricane models, and NWP model diagnostics & verification

  4. Key Findings & Recommendations • Tropical cyclone research • Section 5.1 and Table 5-1: atmospheric / oceanic-related priorities • Section 5.2: Climate (interseasonal, interannual, and longer-term variability) • Section 5.3 and Appendix P: social sciences • JAG/TCR recommends: • Strong support for activities focused on research identified in Chapter 5 • Social science research be an integral part of hurricane forecast and warning program • Through OFCM infrastructure, development of a 10-year, multiagency research implementation plan • Outline specific strategies to address research priorities

  5. Key Findings & Recommendations

  6. Key Findings & Recommendations

  7. NOAA Hurricane Research • Built on partnerships: • National • IFEX involving NCEP, NESDIS & NMAO, plus NSF/RAINEX, NASA/CAMEX, TCSP & NAMMA, ONR/CBLAST • International • AMMA (EU and African countries) • Extra-tropical Transition (Canada & EU) • 6th International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-VI) sponsored by WMO - November 2006

  8. Improve Understanding JAS special CAMEX issue January 2006 BAMS IFEX & RAINEX January 2007 CBLAST March 2007

  9. Improved Processes in Model • Improved understanding of air-sea interaction in high winds (CBLAST): • Improved drag & enthalpy flux coefficients • Wave impacts on surface fluxes • Sea spray impact on surface fluxes

  10. Improved Observing Systems • Airborne Doppler Radar: 2 WP-3D & G-IVSupports operational hurricane modeling objectives of NCEP • SFMR:remote sensing instrument designed to directly estimate surface winds in hurricane • UAS: Aerosonde Demonstration http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/project2003/doppler.html http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/project2005/sfmr.html

  11. NE SW NE SW Calipso Improved Observing Systems • Upper ocean observations: Altimetry • Targeted upper ocean observations (IFEX/NSF/CBLAST/OGP): AXCP/AXCTDs/ AXBTs, Drifters & Floats • Observations of SAL (IFEX/NAMMA):satellite TPW & aerosol, Dropsondes

  12. Where are we at? This is a Major Undertaking (No Quick Fix) requiring NOAA & DOD to work closely with Universities (+UCAR/NCAR) and other Federal Agencies (NASA, NSF),and provide requirements and leadership to: • Improve understanding of physical processes that lead to intensity/structure & track change in TCs through better use of models & observations • Develop and test tools/technologies needed for an integrated TC forecasting system based on NWP models, DA, and observations • Develop/test new strategies for better warnings of TC impacts (surge, wave, rain, severe wx), enabling emergency planners to provide appropriate level of preparedness • Improve understanding of relationship of changes in TC characteristics to long term climate change • Develop next generation of TC researchers and forecasters

  13. Recommendations • Need a formal, multiagency, coordination entity to: • Monitor & update operational needs of TC forecast warning centers • Monitor and update research priorities to meet operational needs • Develop 10-year, multiagency federal research implementation plan outlining specific strategies to address research priorities • Update implementation plan at least annually • Coordinate development/maintenance of research implementation plan within OFCM infrastructure. • Form TC Research Working Group to maintain/publish implementation plan and provide updates at IHC annually • TC Research Working Group members must be involved in agency programming/planning activities to insure connection to mission priorities

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