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Rex J. Fleming UCAR April 21, 2003 Orlando

National Environmental Observing System to Mitigate the Effects of Nuclear-Biological-Chemical (NBC) Attacks: Strategic and Tactical. Rex J. Fleming UCAR April 21, 2003 Orlando. Contaminated Plumes from NBC Terrorism. Source: Nuclear or radiation device Truckload of Anthrax

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Rex J. Fleming UCAR April 21, 2003 Orlando

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  1. National Environmental Observing System to Mitigate the Effects of Nuclear-Biological-Chemical (NBC) Attacks: Strategic and Tactical Rex J. Fleming UCAR April 21, 2003 Orlando

  2. Contaminated Plumes from NBC Terrorism Source: Nuclear or radiation device Truckload of Anthrax Large Toxic Gas Release Time Response: Very Short—Save lives, ease human suffering Short-term—Move people out of harm’s way Long Term—Determine when ground zero back to economic productivity Data Requirements for Plume Models (lowest 20,000 feet): Accurate 4-dimensional input on winds (advection, dry deposition) Accurate 4-dimensional input on water vapor and temperatures (stability, wet deposition, moist physics/chemistry, etc.)

  3. Potentially Dangerous Chain of Events • Plume models driven by Mesoscale Models • Mesoscale (high resolution in space and time) models: highly volatile, extremely sensitive to quality and quantity of initial data • Above results in a wide spectrum of results in short time period • stable predicted as unstable and vice versa • convective weather lines moving too fast or too slow • moisture regions geographically misplaced and intensity wrong by factor of two or more

  4. Impact of Atmospheric Stability on Contaminant Plumes Stable Unstable Weak Winds Strong Winds more intense less area affected least intense least area affected (locally) less intense more area affected

  5. Potentially Dangerous Chain of Events (continued) • Current upper air data (radiosonde system) • 350 km average horizontal resolution • two/day (12-hour) temporal resolution • Large errors in system movement due to advection uncertainty • Very large error if systems developing or dissipating • No high resolution data input poor mesoscale (high resolution) model output poor plume model input poor plume model guidance potential large loss of life - needlessly

  6. National Strategic Observing System: • Serves entire country prior to an NBC event. • Provides 4-D high resolution input as most powerful information source at location and time of NBC terrorist event • Allows time (2-4 hours) for Tactical Observing System to be brought into ground zero • Further supports Tactical System in determining radioactive fallout in case of nuclear event (near-surround vs. far-surround)

  7. Commercial A/C measure winds and temp (lat, long, and time available) • Water vapor measurements proven in 1999-2000 (WVSS-I) • Very accurate water vapor measurements with WVSS-II. Uses diode laser, UCAR air sampler (patent pending), and differential frequency modulation spectroscopy • Air sampler is flush mounted, drag-free, stealthy, optimized for diode lasers and quantum cascade lasers, works on anything that moves • Commercial A/C vertical profile of winds, temp, and water vapor costs $1.10 each vs. radiosonde recurring cost of $250 each

  8. 8.89 cm Aircraft skin Inertial separator (inside, see Fig. 3) Cylindrical sampling tube Turbulence enhancer 24 cm Figure 2. Cross section of complete sampler

  9. WVSS-II Lifetime Costs (20 Years) Per Aircraft Purchase and Installation $18,000 Maintenance ($2,000 every two years) 20,000 Comms. Cost ($1,600/year/aircraft) 32,000 Total $70,000 Profiles: (10/day)(320 flight days/year)(20 years) = 64,000 Price per profile = $1.10

  10. Tactical Observing System:(staged throughout country serving dual benefits – one is NBC terrorism event) • Consists of a variety of systems: function of (nuclear, biological, or chemical) • Includes existing satellite systems and systems brought in by first responders • Measures 4-D area around ground zero and near-surround • Consists of highly mobile systems (aerial and ground-based) • Measures environment and contaminated plume (composition, strength, 4-D movement, trends)

  11. Ground Mobile Systems • trucks/vans • all-terrain Hummers • fast moving choreographed array for environmental data • optimally positioned array for species identification, concentration and trends

  12. Figure 4: Cartoon showing a possible ground-based mobile platform configuration [the concentric circles shown are only symbolic as the actual paths for the ground mobile systems would be polygons of available paths (streets and/or fields) that could be traversed].

  13. Aerial Mobile Observational Platforms: • Special Manned Aircraft • Some existing government a/c • Some existing university and government research a/c • Some existing older commercial a/c suitable for purpose • Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) • Range from GNAT (48 hr endurance and 140 lb payload) to GlobalHawk (42 hr endurance and 1960 lb payload) • Smaller, simpler, in-situ data and plume info only

  14. National Strategic Observing Systems to Help Mitigate Effects of NBC Terrorism Principal Investigators: Rex J. Fleming (UCAR) Tom Warner (NCAR) Draft of May 27, 2003

  15. DRAFT OF JUNE 16, 2003 Addition of Strategic and Tactical Observing Systems for Homeland Security Principal Investigators: Rex J. Fleming (UCAR) Farzin Amzajerdian (NASA) Robert Atlas (NASA) David Bowdle (U. of Alabama, Huntsville) G. David Emmitt (SWA) Bruce Gentry (NASA) R. Michael Hardesty (NOAA) Grady Koch (NASA) Tom Warner (NCAR)

  16. MM5 Model Use is proposed in both Proposals • Proposal #1 (National Strategic Mesoscale Upper Air) • Improved model physics, 4DDA: • Using 100 times as many (VTq) profiles/day • National grid predictions to DHS and their designees • Proposal #2 (Additional Strategic and Tactical Systems) • Improved further nested model (relocatable) • Using tactical observing systems • Regional grid predictions sent to DHS and/or those in • charge of ground zero operations

  17. Mesoscale Aircraft Network NWS / NCEP Other Federal Users ARINC NEW delayed q.c. feedback Later (new) High Resolution Data from Carriers MM5 Model Runs delayed q.c. data All Other Users

  18. Broad Agency Announcement DAAD05-03-T-0024 Mission Area: Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Countermeasures (CB) Requirement Number: R000-CB-UCAR-2003-325 Proposal Title: National Strategic Observing Systems to Help Mitigate Effects of NBC Terrorism UCAR 6/13/2003 • Operational Capability to be Provided: • Life saving measures and a spectrum of other decisions required after an CBRN terrorist event demand accurate knowledge of the associated CBRN plume. Plume models are of little value if not properly driven by mesoscale (fine structure in space/time) environmental models initiated with accurate mesoscale upper air data. • Task 1 fills this national observing systemvoid by augmenting operational profiles from commercial aircraft, thus providing over 100 times the current available data each day (see red stations on map). • Task 2 provides significantly improved real-time predictions – greatly enhancing the plume model guidance for government decision makers at all levels of concern. National Strategic Upper Air Network (red + signs) • Proposed Technical Approach: • Task 1: • Add water vapor sensors to 2400 of the +5200 commercial aircraft that fly each day over the CONUS, providing over 21,000 profiles per day of winds, temperature, and water vapor. • Add real-time communication systems to some regional air carriers (some regional air carriers and all major carriers have such systems today and many are providing winds and temperatures – without proper resolution and water vapor). • Task 2: • Improve 4-dimensional data assimilation procedures to take advantage of new mesoscale data. • Improve NCAR MM5 model (currently providing 24x7 model results to US Army) with better physics and data. • ROM Cost & Schedule: • Task 1 period of performance is 3 years from date of receipt of funds (this allows commercial aircraft sensor installation without impacting operations). • Task 2 is a 3-year on-going analysis and model improvement program. • Total cost is $105 million divided evenly over 3 years. • Deliverables • Observing system hardware on aircraft becomes property of air carriers; aircraft certification from FAA; model results sent via computer in real-time to DHS designees. • Corporate Information • Dr. Rex J. Fleming • University Corporation for Atmospheric Research • 3300 Mitchell Lane, Boulder CO 80301 • Phone (303)497-8165 Fax (303)497-8158 • Email fleming@joss.ucar.edu

  19. Broad Agency Announcement DAAD05-03-T-0024 Mission Area: Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Countermeasures (CB) Requirement Number: R000-CB-UCAR-2003-326 Proposal Title: Addition of Strategic and Tactical Observing Systems for Homeland Security UCAR 6/13/2003 Operational Capability to be Provided: Once a CBRN even has occurred the contaminated plume will continue to evolve due to a number of dynamical, chemical, and physical processes. A mobile tactical observing system is required to measure both the environment and the plume near ground zero and the near-surround. Several tactical observing system configurations are pre-staged at locations around the country. This information is crucial for all subsequent actions and decisions – including those involved in saving lives. Task 1 implements new observations at key coastal cities and mobile tactical observing systems for both the plume and the environment (ground-based, special manned aircraft, and UAVs). Task 2 provides detailed regional model results for the region of the CBRN event. Cartoon showing a possible ground-based mobile platform configuration [the concentric circles shown are only symbolic as the actual paths for the ground mobile systems would be polygons of available paths (streets and/or fields) that could be traversed]. • Proposed Technical Approach: • Task 1: • Add automatic ground based Doppler wind profilers at major coastal cities for possible coastal nuclear detonations. • Add proven hand-held devices for measuring plume composition to air mobile (special manned aircraft and UAVs) and ground mobile platforms (trucks/vans and all-terrain Hummers). Also add environmental sensors for wind, temperature, and water vapor to above mobile platforms. • Task 2: • Improve 4-dimensional data assimilation procedures for the small regional movable grid required to monitor/predict conditions following a terrorist event. • Implement relocatable finer scale version of national NCAR MM5 model to be major information source for ground zero operations • ROM Cost & Schedule: • (This is a large interagency effort lead by UCAR) • Task 1 period of performance is 3 years from date of receipt of funds (this allows time to select and equip the 30 regional hubs around the country). • Task 2 is a 3-year on-going analysis and model improvement program. • Total cost is $138 million evenly divided over 3 years. • Deliverables • Observing system hardware; data and model results sent to DHS and/or ground zero operations center in real-time. • Corporate Information • Dr. Rex J. Fleming • University Corporation for Atmospheric Research • 3300 Mitchell Lane, Boulder CO 80301 • Phone (303)497-8165 Fax (303)497-8158 • Email fleming@joss.ucar.edu

  20. This BAA (due 6/13/03) is only first opportunity • May not be best avenue, but gives exposure • Our reading of DHS desires: • Available proven technology • Tailored to Homeland Security issues • Implemented quickly • Our team and institutional skill can get job done

  21. Proposal Actions Liaison activities Related actions by others Wind profilers for 20 Coastal Cities Procure & test Interface with NWS Sites selected by DHS Water vapor profilers (DIAL or Raman) for 20 coastal cities Procure & test Interface with NWS Sites selected by DHS Commercial a/c wind profilers (20) Develop, certify, procure & test Interface with possible air carriers

  22. Proposal Actions Liaison activities Related actions by others WVSS-II on Military Aircraft (900) Procure Interface with DOD USAF & Navy pick A/C Special Manned Aircraft (SMA) wind profiler Procure & test Interface with Federal Agencies (NASA, NOAA, DOD, etc.) Volunteers come forward UAV sensor package (Diode & QC lasers) – 50 Test QC, procure (Diode & QC) Interface with manufactures on options DHS picks UAVs and hubs

  23. Proposal Actions Liaison activities Related actions by others UAV Wind Profilers (50) Develop, certify, procure Interface with manufactures on options DHS picks UAVs and hubs Vans/trucks (purchase [all or some] and sensors 10 each @ 30 sites) Determine sensor location, purchase, equip, test Interface with manufactures DHS selects 30 regional hubs Hummers (purchase [all or some] and sensors 10 each @ 30 sites) Determine sensor location, purchase, equip, test Interface with manufactures DHS selects 30 regional hubs

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