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Pittsburgh and Allegheny County Portrait of an Aging Society September 25, 2007 Richard Schulz

Pittsburgh and Allegheny County Portrait of an Aging Society September 25, 2007 Richard Schulz Christopher Briem University Center for Social and Urban Research University of Pittsburgh 121 University Place University of Pittsburgh cbriem@pitt.edu. This Presentation.

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Pittsburgh and Allegheny County Portrait of an Aging Society September 25, 2007 Richard Schulz

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  1. Pittsburgh and Allegheny County Portrait of an Aging Society September 25, 2007 Richard Schulz Christopher Briem University Center for Social and Urban Research University of Pittsburgh 121 University Place University of Pittsburgh cbriem@pitt.edu

  2. This Presentation • Regional Demographic Change in SW PA • Concentration of Elderly and NORC’s • Elderly and Race • Economic Impact of Elderly • Elderly Migration • Local Aging Trends and Projections

  3. Demographic Impact and Legacy • Regional net out-migration peaked at over 50,000 per year in 1983. • Out-Migration was very age Selective: younger left, older stayed. • Region soon became one of the ‘oldest’ regions in the country. • Workforce migration left region skill-deficient for new/emerging industries. • Region still has a unique older demographic affecting current population trends.

  4. Annual Net Migration Rates by Major Age GroupPittsburgh Region 1980-2000

  5. Natural Population Change: Births Minus Deaths (2000-2006) as % of Population Deaths exceed births for Pittsburgh

  6. Concentration of Elderly Within Region • Concentration of elderly uneven within region • Naturally Occurring Retirement Communities (NORCs) throughout region • Specific sub-regions highly concentrated elderly population • Public Finance issues: • Reliance on property taxes/impact on fixed income households • Service needs of elderly population • Location of public services for elderly

  7. Concentration of Elderly Population (Age 65+)Southwestern Pennsylvania Municipalities, 2000

  8. Highest Elderly Concentrations (Age 65 and over) Allegheny County Municipalities, 2000

  9. Elderly and Race • Differential disability status by race • Elderly poverty concentrated by race • Projections differ by race

  10. Disability Status by Race, 2000

  11. Poverty Status by Gender Age and Race Allegheny County vs. US, 2006

  12. Elderly Return Migration • Elderly migration flows both in and out of region • Impact on local service demand • Factor in creating Naturally Occurring Retirement Communities (NORCs) • Elderly return migrants • Older • More likely to be widowed • More disabled

  13. Pittsburgh to Florida Elderly Migration Flows:1995-2000

  14. Age Distribution of Migration Flows

  15. Retirement income and medical costs funded nationally represent income gain for region. Pittsburgh Region: $6.2 billion in Retirement/Disability Benefits(2005) Medicare Benefits in Pittsburgh Region: $4.6 billion (2005) Together $10.6 billion or roughly 10% of regional Gross Regional Product. Employment and investment impact concentrated in specific industries. Economic Impact of Elderly

  16. Elderly (Age 65+) Population peaked in 1995 Decline Through 2012 Older Cohorts will show same pattern 75+ population peaking now 85+ growing now/ peak around 2014 Allegheny County in 1995: 18.5% Age 65 and over. Where US is projected to be in 2026. Health impacts on future elderly. Allegheny County Elderly Forecast

  17. Allegheny County Elderly Population (Age 65+) 1990-2020 First Peak in 1995

  18. Older Elderly Population (Age 85+) Allegheny County 1990 - 2020

  19. Conclusions • Mid 1990’s Elderly Concentration in Pittsburgh region (18.5%) where nation will be around 2026. • Forecasted population changes will differ across age cohorts - impacting service demand and delivery. • Local concentrations of elderly can be far above or below regional/national averages. • Post baby boom changes will also be significant.

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