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1st INTERNATIONAL ASTRA CONFERENCE“ARE WE PREPARED TO COPE WITH CLIMATIC CHANGE?CONSEQUENCES OF THE WINTER STORM 2005”MAY 18-20, 2006Klaipeda (Lithuania)Consequences of the winter storm 2005 in Estonia; possible changes in mean and extreme sea levels due to climate changeÜlo Suursaar, Estonian Marine Institute, Univ. of Tartu(ASTRA - Are Kont group)
* This on-line version is due to technical considerations a shorter version of the original 39-slide presentation, given at Klaipeda.
Suursaar, Ü., Kullas, T., Otsmann, M., Saaremäe, I., Kuik, J., Merilain, M. 2006. Cyclone Gudrun in January 2005 and modelling its hydrodynamic consequences in the Estonian coastal waters. - Boreal Environment Res., 11, 2, 143-159.
Suursaar, Ü., Jaagus, J., Kullas, T. 2006. Past and future changes in sea level near the Estonian coast in relation to changes in wind climate. - Boreal Environment Res., 11, 2, 123-142.
Tõnisson, H., Orviku, K., Jaagus, J., Suursaar, Ü., Kont, A., Rivis, R. 2006.Coastal Damages on Saaremaa Island, Estonia, Caused by the Extreme Storm and Flooding on January, 9 2005. – Journal of Coastal Research (submitted).
Suursaar, Ü., Sooäär, J. 2006. Decadal variations in mean and extreme sea level values along the Estonian coast of the Baltic Sea. –Tellus A (submitted).
Suursaar, Ü., Kullas, T. 2006. Influence of wind climate changes on mean sea level and current regime in the coastal waters of West Estonia, the Baltic Sea. – Oceanologia (submitted).
Cyclone “Gudrun/ Erwin” 09.01.2005, 06.00 UTC
Surge height depends on - background Baltic sea level before the event- cyclone trajectory (i.e. wind speed and direction). For Pärnu the most dangerous trajectories lie between the red arrows.
Tide gauges: 3-4 mareographs + tide poles
n=369 071, ca 15%=50 000, nout =ca 19h