Light Tight Oil Growth Impact on Refined Products and Intermediates Rick Thomas. 2014 Energy Conference October 28, 2014. Overview. U.S. Light Tight Oil (LTO) Production The Industry’s Initial Response What Happens Next? How Will Refined Products and Intermediates be Impacted?.
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Light Tight Oil GrowthImpact on Refined Products and IntermediatesRick Thomas
2014 Energy Conference
October 28, 2014
US Crude Oil Production
Source: EIA and Baker & O’Brien Analysis
The Industry’s Response
Increased Crude Runs
Displacement of Crude Imports
Increased Crude Exports
The Industry’s Response (continued)
Investment in Logistics Infrastructure
Expansion of Product Exports
Expansion of Domestic Refining Capacity
Source: Baker & O’Brien Analysis
Source: EIA. Incremental production is calculated using EIA‘s forecast for Lower 48 onshore crude oil production minus Q4 2013 actual production.
Assuming current crude oil export regulations……..
U.S. Crude Oil Import Displacement Considerations
U.S. Crude Runs = 15.5
Typical LTO Handling Constraints
STILL GAS TO SATURATED GAS PLANT
cooling and hydraulics
* Note: “PA” = pumparound circuit
Preheat train configuration
Crude vaporization capacity
Source: Petroleum Fractionation Overview, University of Oklahoma and Baker & O’Brien.
Case Study: Replacing Medium Crude with LTO/Heavy Blend
Baker & O’Brien – Independent Energy Consultants