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International Markets: Opportunities and Challenges for U.S. Beef Denver, Colorado April 2, 2013. James G. Robb Director www.lmic.info. 29 land Grant Universities:. USDA Members: ERS APHIS GIPSA NASS WAOB AMS. Associate Members: AFBF ASI NCBA NPB CME-Group

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Presentation Transcript
slide1

International Markets: Opportunities and Challenges for U.S. Beef

Denver, Colorado

April 2, 2013

James G. Robb

Director

www.lmic.info

slide2

29 land Grant Universities:

USDA Members:

ERS

APHIS

GIPSA

NASS

WAOB

AMS

Associate Members:

AFBF

ASI

NCBA

NPB

CME-Group

Canadian Consortium

Noble Foundation

CoBank

TCFA

CWB

TCU

slide3

Trade Background, Outlook, Issues…

  • The Big Picture – Population, Income, and Trade
  • Value of Trade to the U.S. Beef Industry
  • Comments on Exchange Rates
  • More on Beef Exports
  • Some Challenges and Issues
slide5

Population and Income Drive Trade

  • Rate of population growth slowing, still by 2050 the projection by U.S. Bureau of Census is for 33% more people worldwide.
  • Top 5 Most Populated Countries in 2050
    • India – 1,656 Million
    • China – 1,424 Million
    • U.S.A. – 439 Million
    • Indonesia – 313 Million
    • Ethiopia – 278 Million
  • To meet basic needs plus growing incomes animal protein consumption will need to double by 2050 (Economist Nov 21, 2009)
slide23

Comments– Issues, Issues, Issues…

  • 9-11-2001, BSE in late 2003, 2008 Credit Crisis/Recession All Had Major Trade Impacts and Lowered Cattle Prices
  • COOL – Trade Issue
  • Traceability – Niche and High Value vs Commodity Beef
  • Phytosanitary (BSE, H1N1) – Trade Barriers Of Choice
  • Beta-agonists (currently Russia and China)
  • Many Foreign Consumers are Evolving Quickly
  • Building Foreign Demand Takes Effort (often country specific knowledge)
  • Exports Require Infrastructure and Credit (guarantees, letters of credit, and other things often taken for granted)
  • Trade Agreements are Important
slide24

Comments– Country Specific

  • Countries/Regions to Monitor Near-Term
    • Japan – Removal of Barrier but also Economic Headwinds
    • Mexico – Drought Devastated Cowherd
    • Oceana – Drought, especially New Zealand
  • Countries to Keep Tabs On Longer-Term
    • Cuba
    • China
slide25

www.lmic.info

Thank You!

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