International Markets: Opportunities and Challenges for U.S. Beef
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International Markets: Opportunities and Challenges for U.S. Beef Denver, Colorado April 2, 2013. James G. Robb Director www.lmic.info. 29 land Grant Universities:. USDA Members: ERS APHIS GIPSA NASS WAOB AMS. Associate Members: AFBF ASI NCBA NPB CME-Group

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James g robb director lmic

International Markets: Opportunities and Challenges for U.S. Beef

Denver, Colorado

April 2, 2013

James G. Robb

Director

www.lmic.info


James g robb director lmic

29 land Grant Universities:

USDA Members:

ERS

APHIS

GIPSA

NASS

WAOB

AMS

Associate Members:

AFBF

ASI

NCBA

NPB

CME-Group

Canadian Consortium

Noble Foundation

CoBank

TCFA

CWB

TCU


James g robb director lmic

Trade Background, Outlook, Issues…

  • The Big Picture – Population, Income, and Trade

  • Value of Trade to the U.S. Beef Industry

  • Comments on Exchange Rates

  • More on Beef Exports

  • Some Challenges and Issues


James g robb director lmic

The Big Picture


James g robb director lmic

Population and Income Drive Trade

  • Rate of population growth slowing, still by 2050 the projection by U.S. Bureau of Census is for 33% more people worldwide.

  • Top 5 Most Populated Countries in 2050

    • India – 1,656 Million

    • China – 1,424 Million

    • U.S.A. – 439 Million

    • Indonesia – 313 Million

    • Ethiopia – 278 Million

  • To meet basic needs plus growing incomes animal protein consumption will need to double by 2050 (Economist Nov 21, 2009)


James g robb director lmic

Data Source: IMF


James g robb director lmic

Data Source: USDA-FAS


James g robb director lmic

Data Source: USDA-FAS and ERS; Forecasts by LMIC


James g robb director lmic

Data Source: USDA-FAS and ERS; Forecasts by LMIC


James g robb director lmic

Data Source: USDA-FAS and ERS; Forecasts by LMIC


James g robb director lmic

Value of Trade


James g robb director lmic

Data Source: USDA-FAS


James g robb director lmic

Data Source: USDA-FAS


James g robb director lmic

Data Source: USDA-FAS


James g robb director lmic

Data Source: Pacific Exchange Rate Service, Univ. of B.C.


James g robb director lmic

Beef Exports


James g robb director lmic

Data Source: USDA-FAS


James g robb director lmic

Data Source: USDA-FAS


James g robb director lmic

Livestock Marketing Information Center

Data Source: USDA-FAS


James g robb director lmic

Data Source: USDA-FAS & ERS


James g robb director lmic

Data Source: USDA-FAS and ERS; Forecasts by LMIC


James g robb director lmic

Some Challenges

& Issues


James g robb director lmic

Comments– Issues, Issues, Issues…

  • 9-11-2001, BSE in late 2003, 2008 Credit Crisis/Recession All Had Major Trade Impacts and Lowered Cattle Prices

  • COOL – Trade Issue

  • Traceability – Niche and High Value vs Commodity Beef

  • Phytosanitary (BSE, H1N1) – Trade Barriers Of Choice

  • Beta-agonists (currently Russia and China)

  • Many Foreign Consumers are Evolving Quickly

  • Building Foreign Demand Takes Effort (often country specific knowledge)

  • Exports Require Infrastructure and Credit (guarantees, letters of credit, and other things often taken for granted)

  • Trade Agreements are Important


James g robb director lmic

Comments– Country Specific

  • Countries/Regions to Monitor Near-Term

    • Japan – Removal of Barrier but also Economic Headwinds

    • Mexico – Drought Devastated Cowherd

    • Oceana – Drought, especially New Zealand

  • Countries to Keep Tabs On Longer-Term

    • Cuba

    • China


James g robb director lmic

www.lmic.info

Thank You!


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