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Anticipating the future of local employment and skills needs. Ian Wheeler Head of Research and Labour Market Intelligence. “As for the future, your task is not to foresee it, but to enable it.” Antoine de Saint-Exupery. The role of skills and labour market intelligence.

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Anticipating the future of local employment and skills needs l.jpg

Anticipating the future of local employment and skills needs

Ian Wheeler Head of Research and Labour Market Intelligence


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“As for the future, your task is not to foresee it, but to enable it.”

Antoine de Saint-Exupery

The role of skills and labour market intelligence


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Sector wide intelligence enable it.”

  • As a Sector Skills Council we are responsible for developing skills and labour market intelligence for the UK’s health sector

  • Outputs on our website

    • Sector Skills Assessments, UK and for each nation

    • Expert/Working papers

    • Themed research

    • Future oriented work

    • Online LMI tool


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Scenario planning – why do it, what is it? enable it.”

Why use this approach?

  • When the rules are changing quickly, past performance is not always an indicator of future (forecasts)

  • Great for bringing groups of people together and create a neutral space for discussion

  • Stories are more engaging and novel to describe strategic issues

    What comes out?

  • Stories that describe how ‘the world’ might look in the future (not predictions)

  • Usually three perhaps four ‘versions’ of the future

  • Based on an analysis of drivers of change that are derived from the group

  • Be engaging, compelling and credible

  • Allow critical uncertainties and predetermined elements to be separated


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Typical scenario planning process enable it.”

Stage 1: defining the scope of the scenarios (focal question) and setting up the project

Stage 2: interviews with experts and witnesses

Stage 3: workshops with interested parties to

  • decide drivers of change

  • construction of the framework

  • selection and development of scenarios and their narratives

    Stage 4: communication and application of the scenarios

Apply Skills for Health scenarios?

http://www.skillsforhealth.org.uk/planning-your-workforce-strategy/understand-your-future-labour-needs/future%11oriented-research


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Benefits of Scenario development and utilisation enable it.”

  • Early warnings of impending change

  • to spot early opportunities

  • Reducing risk: preparing for possible changes

  • Robust decision making: puts decision-makers together with topics and issues which they don't normally consider

  • challenges accepted norms and makes people think about the discontinuities, shocks and changes that are likely to affect them

  • look beyond the daily fire-fighting tasks



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Benefits and outputs enable it.”

  • Link between demand for health care, performance of service and the skills and people needed make improvements

  • A collective approach with different institutions in a area - who might deliver services

  • Provides a direction of travel - priorities for skills development and skills utilisation

  • A very flexible approach


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Example of outputs profile of ‘ enable it.” possible future concerns’ regionally



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Testimonies enable it.”

On Scenario planning and development

“I attended one of Skills for Health’s scenario building workshops and I have to say it was one of the best sessions of this type I have attended. I have really learned a lot about the approach and how it can help me think creatively and comfortably about the future.”

Linda Shrewsbury, Head of Workforce, NHS Warwickshire

On complete perspectives approach

“The reports offer us a series of unique insights, including pinpointing disparities between local health service supply and population demand. By using this information to optimise our services for local demand we will increase overall productivity and service quality.”

Adrian Whittle, Head of HR and Organisational Development NHS Cambridgeshire and NHS Peterborough


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Research and Intelligence Services enable it.”

  • Service one – Intelligence on the current and future demand for services in your local area

  • Service two – Scenario planning

  • Service three – expert research on your skills and workforce issues


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If you want to know more enable it.”

  • Contact Tess Green


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www.skillsforhealth.org.uk enable it.”

Email addresses of regional directors


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