1 / 12

27 June 2008

UNECA. 27 June 2008. Javier Santiso Director & Chief Development Economist , OECD Development Centre www.africaneconomicoutlook.org www.oecd.org/dev/aeo. Investment : a new driver?. Growth. Public and Private Investment % of GDP.

modesty
Download Presentation

27 June 2008

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. UNECA 27 June 2008 Javier Santiso Director & Chief Development Economist, OECD Development Centre www.africaneconomicoutlook.org www.oecd.org/dev/aeo

  2. Investment : a new driver? Growth Public and Private Investment % of GDP • The share of investment in GDP has increased in Africa, both public and private, both domestic and foreign. • Saving rate increased by 30% since 2002, witnessing more prudent economic policies. Source: OECD Development Centre / UNCTAD, 2008

  3. Private capital flows more important than ODA? Growth African ODA Source: OECD Development Centre / UNCTAD, World Bank, IMF, 2008 *: UNCTAD preliminary estimation

  4. Record investment inflows for 2007 FDI • Africa FDI 2007 : $36 billion • +20% on 2006; +200% on 2004 • FDI outflows - $8 billion 2006 • Largely due to surging extractive industry investment: South Africa and oil producing countries are still receiving the bulk of direct investment to Africa • Previously off-limit sectors opening to foreign investment: • Banking: Congo, Egypt, Nigeria • Telecoms: Botswana, Burkina Faso, • Cape Verde, Ghana, Namibia • Land ownership: Morocco •  FDI inflows likely to remain strong, but unevenly distributed by sector and destination. Source: OECD Development Centre / UNCTAD, 2008

  5. Asian investments driving African growth FDI Distribution of cross-border M&A purchases in Africa by home region, 2001-2006 (US$ million) Source: OECD Development Centre based on UNCTAD cross-border M&A database, 2008

  6. South Africa: dominating the investment landscape Equities • Africa still lagging behind in investment compared to other emerging regions (Asia especially). • In turnover, the SA stock exchange is worth 100 times that of Africa’s second market: Nigeria. • Over 2001-2006 period, South Africa received as much portfolio equity investment as the entire rest of SSA, 46 times over… • African allocations in global equity funds remains stable at 10% of total. Source: OECD Development Centre / EPFR, 2008

  7. Well adapted to African conditions? Private Equity • Total emerging world private equity funds raised: • Sub-Saharan Africa 2005 - 2006: $2.3 billion raised (+198% yoy) • Average deal size $1.2 million (2005), trending towards larger deals • South Africa: 81% of investments, Nigeria 50% of remainder (2005) • Top sectors: Transport, consumer-related investments, telecommunications/IT (2005) • 2006: first $1 billion pan-African fund Above: OECD Development Centre / African Venture Capital Association, EMPEA, 2008

  8. Bonds Lowering spreads signal increased confidence Source: OECD Development Centre, based on Thomson Datastream, 2008

  9. Sovereign Development Funds: future investors? Opportunity Sovereign Wealth Funds Emerging market investment potential If Sovereign Development Funds allocated 10% of their portfolios to emerging and developing countries, this will generate inflows of $100 billion/year over the next 10 years. With such huge potential flows, it is critical to address SWF impact on developing world early on. SWFs will dwarf ODA flows to developing world. $1.4 trillion to the emerging world over coming decade?

  10. A platform for global dialogue Dev Centre OECD members at Development Centre Non-OECD members Israel Brazil Romania Vietnam Colombia Chile South Africa India Thailand Egypt

  11. African Economic Outlook impact AEO International Forum on African Perspectives Paris, June 2008 Seminar on Capitol Hill Washington D.C, June 2008 EU-Africa Summit Lisbon, December 2007 TICAD Tokyo, May 2008 AfDB Annual Meeting Maputo, May 2008 • International launch at AfDB Annual Assembly: 11th May 2008 • European launch: 13th May 2008 • Over 40 presentations and events within 3 months of publication

  12. UNECA 27 June 2008 Javier Santiso Director & Chief Development Economist, OECD Development Centre www.africaneconomicoutlook.org www.oecd.org/dev/aeo

More Related