Structure of Argument

2. Structure of Argument • Science of climate change • Implications of science for structure of economics • Key economic issues: some questions • Responding to the global challenges: the basis for international action

3. The Greenhouse Effect Met Office Hadley Centre

4. Strong Global Warming Observed Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Based on Folland et al (2000) and Jones and Moberg (2003)

5. Rapid rise in the stock of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere post 1850: Source: IPCC TAR (slide taken from Hadley Centre)

6. Flows of emissions of CO2 from burning fossil-fuels have risen rapidly since 1950 Gt CO2 Source: World Resources Institute, CAIT

7. Global emissions of greenhouse gases come from a wide range of sources Agriculture 5.6 Gt 14% mostly from soils & livestock Energy – 25.6 Gt 61% Consuming fossil fuels Electricity & Heat Generation Land Use changes 7.6 Gt 18% primarily deforestation Transport Other energy Industry All GHG in CO2 equivalent Source: World Resources Institute. 2000 estimate.

8. Global emissions are forecast to grow from all sources transport & power generation growing fastest +2.1% 2002 actual emissions 2030 projected emissions annual average forecast % growth in emissions to 2030 +2.1% +1.2% +1.1% +0.7% Source: International Energy Agency, US Environmental Protection Agency, CO2 equivalent

9. Projected Changes in Global Average Temperature to 2100 under Different IPCC Emissions Scenarios (highest – A1FI, lowest – B1)

10. Warming will lead to major changes in water availability across the globe, with consequences for droughts and floods Change in the 2050s, based on IPCC Scenario A1 Source: Arnell (2004)

11. Temperature change by 2100 (relative to pre-industrial) Temperature change at equilibrium (relative to pre-industrial) Stabilisation Level (CO2 equivalent) Temperaturechange - based on IPCC 2001 climate models Temperature change - based on 2004 Hadley Centre ensembles Temperature change - based on IPCC 2001 climate models Temperature change - based on 2004 Hadley Centre ensembles 400ppm 1.2 - 2.5C 1.6 - 2.8C 0.8 - 2.4C 1.3 - 2.8C 450ppm 1.3 - 2.7C 1.8 - 3.0C 1.0 - 3.1C 1.7 - 3.7C 550ppm 1.5 - 3.2C 2.2 - 3.6C 1.5 - 4.4C 2.4 - 5.3C Increase in global temperature (relative to pre-industrial levels) for different stabilisation levels (expressed as CO2 equivalent). Source: Based on den Elzen and Meinhausen (2005).

12. Larger developing countries account for much of the forecast rise in emissions 145% 39% Projected emissions, 2025 2002 emissions 11% Energy Emissions only Gt CO2 95% 32% 78% 5% 63% 99% Source: World Resources Institute, CAIT Energy Information Administration Reference Scenario, Energy emissions only

13. Although current emissions per capita are higher in developed countries 2002 CO2 Energy Emissions only Tonnes per person per year CO2 Source: World Resources Institute, CAIT

14. To stabilise at below 550 ppm, emissions must start to fall soon & developing countries must be part of the solution Business as usual (A2) Source IPPC