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Taming the Indian Duck

Taming the Indian Duck. Presentation to The Future Is Now conference Hyderabad, India 24 June 2016 Bentham Paulos, Principal PaulosAnalysis.com. Overview. Impact of variable generation: wind & solar Concept of “net demand”: demand minus wind & solar

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Taming the Indian Duck

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  1. Taming the Indian Duck Presentation to The Future Is Now conference Hyderabad, India 24 June 2016 Bentham Paulos, Principal PaulosAnalysis.com

  2. Overview Impact of variable generation: wind & solar Concept of “net demand”: demand minus wind & solar Best way to manage variation: collaboration

  3. India Demand Curve

  4. Wind & Solar Make “Net Demand”

  5. Net Demand: California

  6. The Famous Duck Ramp! Conflict!

  7. California Gross Demand Peak “Baseload” May 4-10, 2014

  8. Peak California net demand “Baseload” 31% wind & solar May 4-10, 2014. 18% wind and solar overall

  9. Peak With Wind & Solar Doubled “Baseload” 62% wind & solar May 4-10, 2014. If 36% wind and solar overall

  10. The Future Is Now: Germany 79% renewable! Solar Wind Source: Agora Energiewende

  11. Gross vs. Net Demand Peak Base Source: Agora Energiewende

  12. The Future is Now: Denmark in 2007 Gross Net(wind)

  13. Lessons Need less inflexible “baseload” and more flexible dispatchable plants, with lower turn down and ramping. Less need for energy, more for capacity and grid services. Big impact on revenues for generation. Thinner peaks make a variety of tools viable, not just generation.

  14. Integration supply curve Regulatory changes are cheapest and fastest! Source: Clean Energy Ministerial

  15. Benefits of coordination: US West

  16. Benefits of coordination: US West Connect best renewable resources to load Reduce variability Share infrastructure to reduce cost: $1.5 billion per year by 2030 Improve reliability by sharing reserves and wires

  17. Benefits of coordination: US West “Imbalance” market started 2014, still expanding Discussions of deeper integration: single regional energy market

  18. Bentham Paulos ben@paulosanalysis.com +1-510-912-3001 @benpaulos PaulosAnalysis.com

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