Climate Change and the Future of Planet Earth

1. Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC

2. Global Environmental Change: Technology and the Future of Planet Earth Eugene S. Takle, PhD, CCM Director, Climate Science Initiative Professor of Atmospheric Science Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Professor of Agricultural Meteorology Department of Agronomy Iowa State University Ames, Iowa 50011 gstakle@iastate.edu Technology, Globalization, and Culture ME/WLC 484 Ames Iowa 2 September 2008

3. Outline • Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide • Radiative forcing • Simulations of global climate and future climate change • Climate change for the US Midwest • Climate change and global food production Except where noted as personal views or from the ISU Global Change course, all materials presented herein are from peer-reviewed scientific reports

4. CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843.

5. CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843. Pattern repeats about every 100,000 years Natural cycles

6. IPCC Third Assessment Report

7. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature 2008 380 ppm

8. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature 2050 550 ppm

9. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature “Business as Usual” 950 ppm

10. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature “Business as Usual” 950 ppm ?

11. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gifhttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif

12. Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

13. Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

15. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

16. El Chichon (1982) Agung, 1963 Mt. Pinatubo (1991) At present trends the imbalance = 1 Watt/m2 in 2018 Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004

22. Arctic Sea-Ice Extent Observed and Projected by Global Climate Models 2005 Aug 2008 2007 Meehl, G.A.,et al, 2007: Global Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Chapter 10, p. 771

24. Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004

25. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gifhttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif

26. Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.

27. Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations. Natural cycles

28. Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations. Not Natural

29. Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations. Highly Likely Not Natural Not Natural

30. Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research

31. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

32. Energy intensive Reduced Consumption Energy conserving IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

33. Energy intensive Reduced Consumption Energy conserving The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

34. Energy intensive Reduced Consumption Energy conserving Mitigation Possible Adaptation Necessary IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

37. Projected changes in precipitation between 1980-1999 and 2080-2099 for an energy-conserving scenario of greenhouse gas emissions IPCC 2007

38. Precipitation minus Evaporation for Western US (25N-40N, 95W-125 W) R. Seager, et al., 2007. Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in Southwestern North America. Science, Vol. 316. no. 5828, pp. 1181 - 1184

39. Precipitation minus Evaporation for Western US (25N-40N, 95W-125 W) R. Seager, et al.,2007. Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in Southwestern North America. Science, Vol. 316. no. 5828, pp. 1181 - 1184

40. Precipitation minus Evaporation for Western US (25N-40N, 95W-125 W) Colorado River Compact established, 1922 R. Seager, et al.,2007. Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in Southwestern North America. Science, Vol. 316. no. 5828, pp. 1181 - 1184

41. Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest Temperature • Longer frost-free period (high) • Higher average winter temperatures (high) • Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high) • Fewer extreme high temperatures in summer in short term but more in long term (medium) • Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and winter (high) • More freeze-thaw cycles (high) • Increased temperature variability (high) *Estimated from IPCC reports Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but model inconclusive *Estimated from IPCC reports

42. Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest Precipitation • More (~10%) precipitation annually (medium) • Change in “seasonality”: Most of the increase will come in the first half of the year (wetter springs, drier summers) (high) • More water-logging of soils (medium) • More variability of summer precipitation (high) • More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high) • Higher episodic streamflow (medium) • Longer periods without rain (medium) • Higher absolute humidity (high) • Stronger storm systems (medium) • More winter soil moisture recharge (medium) • Snowfall increases (late winter) in short term but decreases in the long run (medium) *Estimated from IPCC reports Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but model inconclusive

43. Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest Other • Reduced wind speeds (high) • Reduced solar radiation (medium) • Increased tropospheric ozone (high) • Accelerated loss of soil carbon (high) • Phenological stages are shortened high) • Weeds grow more rapidly under elevated atmospheric CO2 (high) • Weeds migrate northward and are less sensitive to herbicides (high) • Plants have increased water used efficiency (high) *Estimated from IPCC and CCSP reports Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but model inconclusive

44. Observed summer (June-July-August) daily mean temperature changes (K) between 1976-2000 (Adapted from Folland et al. [2001]).

50. Suitability Index for Rainfed Agriculture IPCC 2007